Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!

Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction methods (quantile mapping or anomaly method). Drought, defined here as periods when vegetation functioning is affected by water deficit, was described in terms of intensity, duration and timing. Our results showed that the choice of the bias correction method had little effects on temperature and global radiation projections. However, although both methods led to similar predictions of precipitation amount, they induced strong differences in their temporal distribution, especially during summer. These differences were amplified when the climatic data were used to force the water balance model. On average, the choice of bias correction leads to 45 % uncertainty in the predicted anomalies in drought intensity along with discrepancies in the spatial pattern of the predicted changes and changes in the year-to-year variability in drought characteristics. We conclude that the choice of a bias correction method might have a significant impact on the projections of forest response to climate change.     

A combined modelling and geochemical study of the fate of terrigenous inputs from mixed natural and mining sources in a coral reef lagoon (New Caledonia)

Open-cast mining for Ni, Cr and Co was conducted in the south-west part of New Caledonia during the 20th century. Abandoned mining and prospecting sites were severely affected by erosion, resulting in an increase in the load of terrigenous particles transported to the coral reef lagoon. This article assesses the impact of a typical small catchment area (La Coulée River, 85 km2 watershed) on two bays (Boulari and Sainte Marie) located near Noumea, New Caledonia's main city. This multi-disciplinary study combines geochemical, sedimentological, and hydrodynamic approaches. Ni and Cr concentrations contained in the geochemical matrix phase of the pelitic fraction were determined. The study of the geochemical signatures together with sedimentological data and 3D numerical simulations of the transport of non-settling particles throughout the lagoon demonstrated that terrigenous inputs from the Coulée River were mainly transported and deposited along the shoreline, reaching areas as distant as Sainte Marie Bay. Although quantitatively low (about 3% of the pelite mass of the bay sediments), the terrigenous inputs in Sainte Marie Bay originating from the Coulée River could be traced. The metal content in suspended matter was over 7000 mg kg(-1) for Ni and 4200 mg kg(-1) for Cr.     

Numerical modeling to predict the spread of landslide of schist’s area under climatic event of Ain El Hammam (Algeria)

The several reactivations of the landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) after each important weather event compel us to look closely at its triggering factors and predict its mechanisms and its evolution at the longer term. In this sense, the prediction of the slope behavior becomes necessary. This paper presents a numerical model of the AEH landslide using Plaxis® software. This model considers hydraulic effects such as precipitation and pore pressure even in the unsaturated parts. Soil and rock behaviors are described with proper elasto-plastic models named Hardening Soils and Jointed Rocks. The first model takes into account hardening on isotropic and deviatoric mechanism as well as a non-associated flow rule. The second model considers a non-isotropic elasticity with perfect plasticity along with given sliding directions. The hydraulic and mechanical models are coupled with an effective stress concept. To detect unstable areas in the landslide, we developed a Matlab® program to take into account the Hill’s bifurcation criterion, which is based on sign of the second-order work. It has been proved that this criterion allows detecting all failure modes that can appear in rate-independent materials and especially the ones that develop before the plasticity limit criterion. From such computations, we can predict the shape and position of slip surface responsible of the actual ground movement of the slope. To validate the numerical results, analysis of field measurement is included. We use high resolution of electrical tomography to delineate the geometry and position of failure surface and approve our results.     

A new amber deposit from the Cretaceous (uppermost Albian-lowermost Cenomanian) of southwestern France

A Cretaceous amber deposit has recently been discovered in a quarry of Charente-Maritime (southwestern France), at Cadeuil. This paper presents the sedimentary and palaeoenvironmental settings of the uppermost Albian-lowermost Cenomanian series including the amber deposit. A preliminary analysis of the amber samples reveals diverse fossil arthropods (a few mites and at least 20 insect families within 9 orders), as well as numerous micro-organisms, mainly algae and mycelia. A myceloid colony of bacteria, a flagellate algae and four especially well preserved insects are illustrated (Diptera Dolichopodidae, Diptera Chironomidae, Hymenoptera Parasitica, and Heteroptera Tingidae). The abundance of the limnic micro-organisms is discussed in terms of bloom events. Their relative scarcity in almost all the amber pieces containing fossil arthropods is attributed to differences in the origin of resin: production along trunk and branches for amber with arthropods; production by aquatic roots for amber rich in algae. The absence of pollen and spores in amber is attributed to differences in the respective periods of resin and palynomorph production, which may be related to a seasonal climate during the Albian-Cenomanian transition in Western Europe.     

Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints:Concepts,Examples and Prospects

Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change, such as climate feedback, regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity. Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections. In this paper, the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties, and a review of emergent constr...