Modelling the global ocean tides: modern insights from FES2004

During the 1990s, a large number of new tidal atlases were developed, primarily to provide accurate tidal corrections for satellite altimetry applications. During this decade, the French tidal group (FTG), led by C. Le Provost, produced a series of finite element solutions (FES) tidal atlases, among which FES2004 is the latest release, computed from the tidal hydrodynamic equations and data assimilation. The aim of this paper is to review the state of the art of tidal modelling and the progress achieved during this past decade. The first sections summarise the general FTG approach to modelling the global tides. In the following sections, we introduce the FES2004 tidal atlas and validate the model against in situ and satellite data. We demonstrate the higher accuracy of the FES2004 release compared to earlier FES tidal atlases, and we recommend its use in tidal applications. The final section focuses on the new dissipation term added to the equations, which aims to account for the conversion of barotropic energy into internal tidal energy. There is a huge improvement in the hydrodynamic tidal solution and energy budget obtained when this term is taken into account.     

Late Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of eastern Indonesia

This paper presents an internally and globally consistent model of plate evolution in eastern Indonesia from Middle Miocene to Present time. It is centered on the Banda Sea region located in the triple junction area between the Pacific–Philippine, Australia and South–East Asia plates. The geological and geophysical data available from Indonesia were until recently insufficient to define a unique plate tectonic model. In this paper, the new data taken into account clearly restrict the possible interpretations. Owing to a great number of geological, geophysical and geochemical studies, the major plate boundaries (the Sunda–Banda subduction zone to the south, the Tarera–Aiduna Fault zone and the Seram Thrust to the east, and the Sorong Fault zone and Molucca Sea collision zone to the north) are now clearly identified. The age of the major tectonic structures is also better known. Geodetic measurements well constrain the Present time plate kinematics. We also consider the deformation history within eastern Indonesia, where numerous short-lived microplates and their related microcontinents successively accreted to the Asiatic margin. Moreover, magnetic anomalies identification of the North and South Banda Sea basins allows a precise kinematic reconstruction of the back-arc opening. We used the Plates software to test the coherency of our model, presented as a series of 4 plate reconstruction maps from 13 Ma to the present. Finally, the origin of oceanic domains restored by our reconstruction is discussed.     

Tree Species Composition in European Pristine Forests: Comparison of Stand Data to Model Predictions

The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and driven with climate data from nearby weather stations. Predicted species composition and stand structure are compared to inventory data. Similarity and dissimilarity in the model results under current climatic conditions as well as the predicted responses to six climate change scenarios are discussed. All models produce good results in the prediction of the right tree functional types. In about half the cases, the dominating species are predicted correctly under the current climate. Where deviations occur, they often represent a shift of the species spectrum towards more drought tolerant species. Results for climate change scenarios indicate temperature driven changes in the alpine elevational vegetation belts at humid sites and a high sensitivity of forest composition and biomass of boreal and temperate deciduous forests to changes in precipitation as mediated by summer drought. Restricted generality of the models is found insofar as models originally developed for alpine conditions clearly perform better at alpine sites than at boreal sites, and vice versa. We conclude that both the models and the input data need to be improved before the models can be used for a robust evaluation of forest dynamics under climate change scenarios across Europe. Recommendations for model improvements, further model testing and the use of physiology based succession models are made.     

Leaching of coal-mine tips (Nord-Pas-de-Calais coal basin,France) and sulphate transfer to the chalk aquifer: example of acid mine drainage in a buffered environment

In northern France, the weathering and oxidation of pyrite-containing coal mine spoils can lead to sulphate enrichment of the underlying chalk aquifer. Two sites have been studied: in a free water-table zone and in a confined-aquifer zone. Solid-fraction analyses have shown a release of carbon and sulphur from the waste dump surfaces. The groundwater isotopic analysis (notably ³⁴S) showed the existence of two sulphate sources (mine spoils and gypsum contained in Cenozoic formations). This study also saw evidence of bacterial sulphate reduction in the confined zone as a result of the release of carbon from mine spoils. The effects of acid mine drainage were the presence of secondary minerals as small jarosite dots (cm) present at depth, gypsum or ferrihydrite present on the bottom of temporary ponds, and an increase in sulphate content of groundwaters sampled downstream of the waste dumps. This acid mine drainage is buffered during its infiltration into the chalk aquifer. This is evidenced by the increase in magnesium, calcium, bicarbonate or strontium, resulting of carbonate digestion downstream of the sites. No significant leaching of metals, even those associated with the sulphide fraction, was seen at the two studied sites.     

Influence of morphological changes on suspended sediment dynamics in a macrotidal estuary: diachronic analysis in the Seine Estuary (France) from 1960 to 2010

Ocean Dynamics - Estuaries are subject to extensive morphological changes through human activities, such as deepening and narrowing via dredging and channelization. The estuary sediment load,...     

The AMANDES tidal model for the Amazon estuary and shelf

The AMANDES project aims to study transports from the Andean mountains to the Atlantic Ocean through the Amazon system. This requires realistic estuarine modelling in this area strongly forced by tides and river discharge. As none of the existing models for this region would fit the actual needs of the project, a specific new generation model has been implemented.The model is based on the hydrodynamic finite element model T-UGOm. In a first step, we limit our investigations to tidal dynamics. As the Amazon estuary is a very shallow macro-tidal area, it is necessary to improve the available bathymetries and to develop a precise bottom friction parametrisation.In this paper, we discuss the implementation of a high resolution regional model. This allows us to develop a precise and accurate tidal model: for instance, the overall root mean square error on complex differences is reduced from 54 cm in a standard model to 27 cm in our best model. Such precise and accurate tidal modelling is a prerequisite for modelling particle transport.     

Numerical modeling of bedload and suspended load contributions to morphological evolution of the Seine Estuary (France)

This numerical modeling study (i) assesses the influence of the sediment erosion process on the sediment dynamics and subsequent morphological changes of a mixed-sediment environment, the macrotidal Seine estuary, when non-cohesive particles are dominant within bed mixtures (non-cohesive regime), and (ii) investigates respective contributions of bedload and suspended load in these dynamics. A three dimensional (3D) process-based morphodynamic model was set up and run under realistic forcings (including tide, waves, wind, and river discharge) during a 1-year period. Applying erosion homogeneously to bed sediment in the non-cohesive regime, i.e., average erosion parameters in the erosion law (especially the erodibility parameter, E₀), leads to higher resuspension of fine sediment due to the presence of coarser fractions within mixtures, compared to the case of an independent treatment of erosion for each sediment class. This results in more pronounced horizontal sediment flux (two-fold increase for sand, +30% for mud) and erosion/deposition patterns (up to a two-fold increase in erosion over shoals, generally associated with some coarsening of bed sediment). Compared to observed bathymetric changes, more relevant erosion/deposition patterns are derived from the model when independent resuspension fluxes are considered in the non-cohesive regime. These results suggest that this kind of approach may be more relevant when local grain-size distributions become heterogeneous and multimodal for non-cohesive particles. Bedload transport appears to be a non-dominant but significant contributor to the sediment dynamics of the Seine Estuary mouth. The residual bedload flux represents, on average, between 17 and 38% of the suspended sand flux, its contribution generally increasing when bed sediment becomes coarser (can become dominant at specific locations). The average orientation of residual fluxes and erosion/deposition patterns caused by bedload generally follow those resulting from suspended sediment dynamics. Sediment mass budgets cumulated over the simulated year reveal a relative contribution of bedload to total mass budgets around 25% over large erosion areas of shoals, which can even become higher in sedimentation zones. However, bedload-induced dynamics can locally differ from the dynamics related to suspended load, resulting in specific residual transport, erosion/deposition patterns, and changes in seabed nature.     

Interactions between groundwater and seasonally ice‐covered lakes: Using water stable isotopes and radon‐222 multilayer mass balance models

Interactions between lakes and groundwater are of increasing concern for freshwater environmental management but are often poorly characterized. Groundwater inflow to lakes, even at low rates, has proven to be a key in both lake nutrient balances and in determining lake vulnerability to pollution. Although difficult to measure using standard hydrometric methods, significant insight into groundwater–lake interactions has been acquired by studies applying geochemical tracers. However, the use of simple steady‐state, well‐mixed models, and the lack of characterization of lake spatiotemporal variability remain important sources of uncertainty, preventing the characterization of the entire lake hydrological cycle, particularly during ice‐covered periods. In this study, a small groundwater‐connected lake was monitored to determine the annual dynamics of the natural tracers, water stable isotopes and radon‐222, through the implementation of a comprehensive sampling strategy. A multilayer mass balance model was found outperform a well‐mixed, one‐layer model in terms of quantifying groundwater fluxes and their temporal evolution, as well as characterizing vertical differences. Water stable isotopes and radon‐222 were found to provide complementary information on the lake water budget. Radon‐222 has a short response time, and highlights rapid and transient increases in groundwater inflow, but requires a thorough characterization of groundwater radon‐222 activity. Water stable isotopes follow the hydrological cycle of the lake closely and highlight periods when the lake budget is dominated by evaporation versus groundwater inflow, but continuous monitoring of local meteorological parameters is required. Careful compilation of tracer evolution throughout the water column and over the entire year is also very informative. The developed models, which are suitable for detailed, site‐specific studies, allow the quantification of groundwater inflow and internal dynamics during both ice‐free and ice‐covered periods, providing an improved tool for understanding the annual water cycle of lakes.     

Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints:Concepts,Examples and Prospects

Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates.