Simulation of the Indian monsoon using the RegCM3–ROMS regional coupled model

A regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model was developed to study the role of air–sea interactions in the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The coupled model includes the regional climate model (RegCM3) as atmospheric component and the regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) as oceanic component. The two-way coupled model system exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model and surface wind stress and energy fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model. The coupled model is run for four years 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2003 and the results are compared with observations and atmosphere-only model runs employing Reynolds SSTs as lower boundary condition. It is found that the coupled model captures the main features of the Indian monsoon and simulates a substantially more realistic spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall compared to the uncoupled atmosphere-only model. The intraseasonal oscillations are also better simulated in the coupled model compared to the atmosphere-only model. These improvements are due to a better representation of the feedbacks between the SST and convection and highlight the importance of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Indian monsoon.     

Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 2: future climate projection (2021–2050)

An analysis of simulated future surface climate change over the southern half of Korean Peninsula using a RegCM3-based high-resolution one-way double-nested system is presented. Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are discussed for the 30-year-period of 2021–2050 with respect to the reference period of 1971–2000 based on the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. Warming in the range of 1–4°C is found throughout the analysis region and in all seasons. The warming is maximum in the higher latitudes of the South Korean Peninsula and in the cold season. A large reduction in snow depth is projected in response to the increase of winter minimum temperature induced by the greenhouse warming. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variation and a substantial regional variability. In particular, we find a large increase of wintertime precipitation over Korea, especially in the upslope side of major mountain systems. Summer precipitation increases over the northern part of South Korea and decreases over the southern regions, indicating regional diversity. The precipitation change also shows marked intraseasonal variations throughout the monsoon season. The temperature change shows a positive trend throughout 2021–2050 while the precipitation change is characterized by pronounced interdecadal variations. The PDF of the daily temperature is shifted towards higher values and is somewhat narrower in the scenario run than the reference one. The number of frost days decreases markedly and the number of hot days increases. The regional distribution of heavy precipitation (over 80 mm/day) changes considerably, indicating changes in flood vulnerable regions. The climate change signal shows pronounced fine scale signal over Korea, indicating the need of high-resolution climate simulations     

全球变暖对中国区域积雪变化影响的数值模拟

对20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来积雪变化进行了分析.检验了模式对当代(1961-1990年)积雪日数、积雪量、积雪开始和结束时间的模拟,结果表明:与观测相比,模式对这些变量均有较好的模拟能力,但模拟的积雪日数和积雪量偏多,积雪开始时间偏早,结束日期偏晚.21世纪末(2071-2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国大部分地区积雪日数和积雪量将减少;积雪开始时间推后,结束时间提前,但在各个地区表现也有所不同,并在个别地区出现相反的变化.将中国区域分为东北、西北、青藏高原3个分区,结果显示:各分区平均积雪量均为减少,积雪开始时间推后,而积雪结束时间则都将提前,其中,青藏高原地区的变化最为显著.     

Testing the Ep,i–Lp,iso–T0.45 correlation on a BeppoSAX and Swift sample of gamma-ray bursts

Using a sample of 14 BeppoSAX and 74 Swift GRBs with measured redshift we tested the correlation between the intrinsic peak energy of the time-integrated spectrum,   E _{p, i}   , the isotropic-equivalent peak luminosity,   L _p,iso  , and the duration of the most intense parts of the GRB computed as T _0.45 ('Firmani correlation'). For 41 out of 88 GRBs we could estimate all of the three required properties. Apart from 980425, which appears to be a definite outlier and notoriously peculiar in many respects, we used 40 GRBs to fit the correlation with the maximum likelihood method discussed by D'Agostini, suitable to account for the extrinsic scatter in addition to the intrinsic uncertainties affecting every single GRB. We confirm the correlation. However, unlike the results by Firmani et al., we found that the correlation does have a logarithmic scatter comparable with that of the   E _{p, i} – E _iso  ('Amati') correlation. We also find that the slope of the product   L _p,iso  T _0.45  is equal to ∼0.5, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the   E _{p, i} – L _p,iso– T _0.45  correlation is equivalent to the   E _{p, i} – E _iso  correlation (slope ∼0.5). We conclude that, based on presently available data, there is no clear evidence that the   E _{p, i} – L _p,iso– T _0.45  correlation is different (both in terms of slope and dispersion) from the   E _{p, i} – E _iso  correlation.     

A search for the progenitors of two Type Ia Supernovae in NGC 1316

Recent evidence of a young progenitor population for many Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) raises the possibility that evolved intermediate-mass progenitor stars may be detected in pre-explosion images. NGC 1316, a radio galaxy in the Fornax cluster, is a prolific producer of SNe Ia, with four detected since 1980. We analyse Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) pre-explosion images of the sites of two of the SNe Ia that exploded in this galaxy, SN2006dd (a normal Type Ia) and SN2006mr (likely a subluminous, 1991bg-like, SN Ia). Astrometric positions are obtained from optical and near-infrared ground-based images of the events. We find no candidate point sources at either location, and set upper limits on the flux in B, V and I from any such progenitors. We also estimate the amount of extinction that could be present, based on analysis of the surface-brightness inhomogeneities in the HST images themselves. At the distance of NGC 1316, the limits correspond to absolute magnitudes of  ∼−5.5, −5.4  and −6.0 mag in   M _B , M _V   and   M _I   , respectively. Comparison to stellar evolution models argues against the presence at the supernova sites, 3 yr prior to the explosion, of normal stars with initial masses  ≳6 M_⊙  at the tip of their asymptotic-giant branch (AGB) evolution, young post-AGB stars that had initial masses  ≳4 M_⊙  and post-red giant stars of initial masses  ≳9 M_⊙  .     

Exhumation of the Dora Maira ultrahigh‐pressure unit by buoyant uprise within a low‐viscosity mantle oblique‐slip shear zone

The Brossasco‐Isasca subunit (BIU) of the Dora Maira massif is currently the only known continental crustal ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) unit in the Western Alps. The peak pressure/temperature conditions are 3.5–4.5 GPa/~730 °C; exhumation from ~3.5 GPa to ~1 GPa occurred within 2.2 ± 1.8 Ma, but the exhumation mechanism is incompletely understood. We present a conceptual model for the buoyancy‐driven exhumation of the BIU inside a low‐viscosity, dense mantle shear zone weakened by increased strain rates due to simultaneous strike‐slip and subduction (oblique‐slip) of the European plate. Two‐dimensional thermo‐mechanical models simulate such a buoyant uprise of an ellipse inside an inclined layer. Simulations (i) show the feasibility of the conceptual model, (ii) fit the pressure/temperature/time record and (iii) constrain effective viscosities. The model is compatible with the (i) small volume of continental crustal UHP rock in the Western Alps, (ii) minor erosion during exhumation and (iii) strike‐slip deformation during the exhumation period.     

Flooding scenarios due to land subsidence and sea‐level rise: a case study for Lipari Island (Italy)

Archaeological and instrumental data indicate that the southern sector of the volcanic island of Lipari has been subsiding for the last 2100 years due to isostatic and tectonic factors, at variable rates of up to ~11 mm a^?1. Based on this data, a detailed marine flooding scenario for 2100 AD is provided for the bay of Marina Lunga in the eastern part of the island from (1) an ultra‐high‐resolution Digital Terrain and Marine Model (DTMM) generated from multibeam bathymetry (MB) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), (2) the rate of land subsidence from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and (3) the regional sea‐level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When land subsidence is considered, the upper bound of sea‐level rise is estimated at 1.36 m and 1.60 m for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. Here, we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore.     

Magnetic features of the magmatic intrusion that occurred in the 2007 eruption at Stromboli Island (Italy)

Significant changes in the local magnetic field marked the resumption of eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano on February 27, 2007. After differential magnetic fields were obtained by filtering out external noise using adaptive filters and seasonal thermal noise using temperature data, we identified step-like changes of 1–4 nT coincident with the opening of eruptive fissures in the upper part of the Sciara del Fuoco. The magnetic variations detected at two stations are closely related to the propagation of a shallow NE–SW magmatic intrusion extending beyond the summit craters area. These observations are consistent with those calculated using piezomagnetic models in which stress-induced changes in rock magnetization are produced by the magmatic intrusion. No significant magnetic changes were observed when the first fractures opened along the NE crater rim. Indeed, the stress-induced magnetization caused by this magmatic activity is expected to be too low because of the structural weakness and/or thermal state of the summit area. The continuous long-term decay characterizing the post-eruptive magnetic pattern can be related to a time-dependent relaxation process. A Maxwell rheology was assumed and the temporal evolution of the piezomagnetic field was evaluated. This allowed us to estimate the rheological properties of the medium; in particular, an average viscosity ranging between 10¹⁶ and 10¹⁷ Pa⋅s was a relaxation time τ of about 38 days.     

Climate Change over China in the 21st Century as Simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0

Driven by the global model,Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1),climate change over China in the 21st century is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM4.0)under the new emission scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.This is based on a period of transient simulations from 1950 to2099,with a grid spacing of 50 km.The present paper focuses on the annual mean temperature and precipitation in China over this period,with emphasis on their future changes.Validation of model performance reveals marked improvement of the RegCM4.0 model in reproducing present day temperature and precipitation relative to the driving BCC_CSM1.1 model.Significant warming is simulated by both BCC_CSM1.1 and RegCM4.0,however,spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the simulations.The high emission scenario RCP8.5 results in greater warming compared to RCP4.5.The two models project different precipitation changes,characterized by a general increase in the BCC_CSM1.1,and broader areas with decrease in the RegCM4.0 simulations.