Instability in spatial error models: an application to the hypothesis of convergence in the European case

This paper focuses on the hypothesis of stability in the mechanisms of spatial dependence that are usually employed in spatial econometric models. We propose a specification strategy for which the first step is to solve a local estimation algorithm, called the Zoom estimation. The aim of this stage is to detect problems of heterogeneity in the parameters and to identify the regimes. Then we resort to a battery of formal Lagrange Multipliers to test the assumption of stability in the processes of spatial dependence. The alternative hypothesis consists of the existence of several regimes in these parameters. A small Monte Carlo serves to confirm the behaviour of this strategy in a context of finite size samples. As an illustration, we solve an application to the case of the hypothesis of convergence for the per capita income in the European regions. Our results reveal the existence of a strong Centre-Periphery dichotomy in which instability extends to all the elements (coefficients of regression as well as parameters of spatial dependence) that intervene in a classical conditional β-convergence model.     

Mass transfer in eccentric binary stars

The concept of Roche lobe overflow is fundamental to the theory of interacting binaries. Based on potential theory, it is dependent on all the relevant material corotating in a single frame of reference. Therefore if the mass losing star is asynchronous with the orbital motion or the orbit is eccentric, the simple theory no longer applies and no exact analytical treatment has been found. We use an analytic approximation whose predictions are largely justified by smoothed particle hydrodynamic simulations (SPH). We present SPH simulations of binary systems with the same semi-major axis   a = 5.55 R_⊙  , masses   M ₁= 1 M_⊙, M ₂= 2 M_⊙  and radius   R ₁= 0.89 R_⊙  for the primary star but with different eccentricities   e = 0.4, 0.5, 0.6  and 0.7. In each case the secondary star is treated as a point mass. When   e = 0.4  no mass is lost from the primary while at   e = 0.7  catastrophic mass transfer, partly through the L₂ point, takes place near periastron. This would probably lead to common-envelope evolution if star 1 were a giant or to coalescence for a main-sequence star. In between, at   e ≥ 0.5  , some mass is lost through the L₁ point from the primary close to periastron. However, rather than being all accreted by the secondary, some of the stream appears to leave the system. Our results indicate that the radius of the Roche lobe is similar to circular binaries when calculated for the separation and angular velocity at periastron. Part of the mass loss occurs through the L₂ point.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century

Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L _max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L _max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.     

Numerical solution to the oblique derivative boundary value problem on non-uniform grids above the Earth topography

The paper presents a numerical solution of the oblique derivative boundary value problem on and above the Earth’s topography using the finite volume method (FVM). It introduces a novel method for constructing non-uniform hexahedron 3D grids above the Earth’s surface. It is based on an evolution of a surface, which approximates the Earth’s topography, by mean curvature. To obtain optimal shapes of non-uniform 3D grid, the proposed evolution is accompanied by a tangential redistribution of grid nodes. Afterwards, the Laplace equation is discretized using FVM developed for such a non-uniform grid. The oblique derivative boundary condition is treated as a stationary advection equation, and we derive a new upwind type discretization suitable for non-uniform 3D grids. The discretization of the Laplace equation together with the discretization of the oblique derivative boundary condition leads to a linear system of equations. The solution of this system gives the disturbing potential in the whole computational domain including the Earth’s surface. Numerical experiments aim to show properties and demonstrate efficiency of the developed FVM approach. The first experiments study an experimental order of convergence of the method. Then, a reconstruction of the harmonic function on the Earth’s topography, which is generated from the EGM2008 or EIGEN-6C4 global geopotential model, is presented. The obtained FVM solutions show that refining of the computational grid leads to more precise results. The last experiment deals with local gravity field modelling in Slovakia using terrestrial gravity data. The GNSS-levelling test shows accuracy of the obtained local quasigeoid model.     

Carbon costs and benefits of France’s biomass energy production targets

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.

     

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.