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31.
Nine faunal teeth from layer 20 of El Castillo cave in Cantabrian Spain were dated using electron spin resonance (ESR). Two teeth were rejected due to inconsistent subsample ages, while the remaining teeth yielded a mean age that is consistent with the stratigraphic expectations: 42.7±3.5. Uncertainty in the external γ dose rate results in a potential systematic uncertainty of±6.4ka that should affect all samples equally. The results provide independent confirmation of previously reported 14C ages for layer 20. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   
32.
Web-based macroseismic survey in Italy: method validation and results   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Sbarra  Paola  Tosi  Patrizia  De Rubeis  Valerio 《Natural Hazards》2010,54(2):563-581
A new method of macroseismic surveys, based on voluntary collaboration through the Internet, has been running at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) since July 2007. The macroseismic questionnaire is addressed to a single non-specialist; reported effects are statistically analysed to extrapolate a probabilistic estimate of Mercalli Cancani Sieberg and European Macroseismic Scale intensities for that observer. Maps of macroseismic intensity are displayed online in almost real time and are continuously updated when new data are made available. For densely inhabited zones, we have received reports of felt effects for even very small events (M = 2). Six earthquakes are presented here, showing the ability of the method to give fast and interesting results. The effects reported in questionnaires coming from three towns are carefully analysed and assigned intensities are compared with those derived from traditional macroseismic surveys, showing the reliability of our web-based method.  相似文献   
33.
The skill of a regional climate model (RegCM4) in capturing the mean patterns, interannual variability and extreme statistics of daily-scale temperature and precipitation events over Mexico is assessed through a comparison of observations and a 27-year long simulation driven by reanalyses of observations covering the Central America CORDEX domain. The analysis also includes the simulation of tropical cyclones. It is found that RegCM4 reproduces adequately the mean spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and temperature, along with the associated interannual variability characteristics. The main model bias is an overestimation of precipitation in mountainous regions. The 5 and 95 percentiles of daily temperature, as well as the maximum dry spell length are realistically simulated. The simulated distribution of precipitation events as well as the 95 percentile of precipitation shows a wet bias in topographically complex regions. Based on a simple detection method, the model produces realistic tropical cyclone distributions even at its relatively coarse resolution (dx = 50 km), although the number of cyclone days is underestimated over the Pacific and somewhat overestimated over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. Overall, it is assessed that the performance of RegCM4 over Mexico is of sufficient quality to study not only mean precipitation and temperature patterns, but also higher order climate statistics.  相似文献   
34.
Uncertainty assessment in quantitative rockfall risk assessment   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
This study shows a quantitative rockfall risk assessment (QRA) for a slope of the Feifeng Mountain (China), including an explicit assessment of the uncertainties. For rockfall risk analysis, the annual probability of occurrence, reach probability, temporal–spatial probability and vulnerability of tourists were calculated for both dry and rainy day conditions. The resulting individual risk for exposed people visiting the historical site can be considered as acceptable for all scenarios, whereas the overall societal risk lies within the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) zone and therefore requires some mitigation actions. For the explicit assessment of uncertainty, an error propagation technique (first-order second moment (FOSM)) was adopted, starting from expert knowledge heuristic estimations of the coefficient of variation for each component of the risk analysis procedure. As a result, coefficients of variation of the calculated risk were obtained, ranging from 48 to 132 %, thus demonstrating the importance of accounting for uncertainty in rockfall risk modelling. A multi-criteria methodology is also proposed for the assessment of the standard deviation of the parameters adopted for the stochastic rockfall run-out model.  相似文献   
35.
Extensive deposition of marine evaporites occurred during the Early–Middle Eocene in the South‐eastern Pyrenean basin (north‐east Spain). This study integrates stratigraphic and geochemical analyses of subsurface data (oil wells, seismic profiles and gravity data) together with field surveys to characterize this sedimentation in the foredeep and adjacent platform. Four major evaporite units were identified. The oldest was the Serrat Evaporites unit, with a platform‐slope‐basin configuration. Thick salina and sabkha sulphates accumulated on the platform, whereas resedimented and gravity‐derived sulphates were deposited on the slope, and salt and sulphates were deposited in the deep basin. In the subsequent unit (Vallfogona evaporites), thin sulphates formed on the platform, whereas very thick siliciclastic turbidites accumulated in the foredeep. However, some clastic gypsum coming from the platform (gypsarenites and gypsum olistoliths) was intercalated in these turbidites. The following unit, the Beuda Gypsum Formation developed in a sulphate platform‐basin configuration, where the topography of the depositional surface had become smooth. The youngest unit, the Besalú Gypsum, formed in a shallow setting. This small unit provides the last evidence of marine influence in a residual basin. Sulphur and oxygen isotope compositions are consistent with a marine origin for all evaporites. However, δ34S and δ18O values also suggest that, except for the oldest unit (Serrat Evaporites), there was some sulphate recycling from the older into the younger units. The South‐eastern Pyrenean basin constitutes a fine example of a foreland basin that underwent multiepisodic evaporitic sedimentation. In the basin, depositional factors evolved with time under a structural control. Decreasing complexity is observed in the lithofacies, as well as in the depositional models, together with a diminishing thickness of the evaporite units.  相似文献   
36.
Accidental release of crude oil into the sea due to human activity causes water pollution and heavy damages to natural ecosystems killing birds, fish, mammals and other organisms. A number of monitoring systems are used for tracking the spills and their effects on the marine environment, as well as for collecting data for feeding models. Among them, Earth observation technologies play a crucial role and moderate spatial resolution satellite systems are able to collect images with a very short revisit time or even daily. This paper describes the use of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for monitoring large oil slicks with the fluorescence/emissivity index and object-based image analysis. Two case studies are presented: the Deepwater Horizon (2010) and the Campos Basin (2011) oil spill accidents. Results show that it is possible to track the dynamics of the slick both for massive and long-lasting accidents and for smaller and very quick accidents. The main advantages of the method proposed are a straightforward implementation, a fast and semi-automated data processing and the capability of integration of daytime and nighttime acquisitions, as well as its adaptability to different sensors.  相似文献   
37.
Elemental concentrations in Phanerozoic sea water are known to fluctuate both in time and space. With regard to carbonates precipitated from marine fluids, elemental concentrations in the carbonate crystal lattice are affected by a complex array of equilibrium and non‐equilibrium as well as post‐depositional alteration processes. To assess the potential of carbonate elemental chemostratigraphy, seven Upper Jurassic sections were investigated along a proximal to distal transect across the south‐east Iberian palaeomargin. The aim was to explore stratigraphic and spatial variations in calcium, strontium, magnesium, iron and manganese elemental abundances. The epicontinental geochemical record is influenced by the combination of continental runoff and a significant diagenetic overprint. In contrast, the epioceanic geochemical record agrees with reconstructed open marine sea water values, reflecting a moderate degree of syn‐depositional to early marine pore water diagenesis. Establishing a fair degree of preservation of matrix micrite, a thorough statistical approach was applied and elemental associations tested for their environmental significance. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analyses revealed a persistent relation between carbonate magnesium, iron and strontium abundances. Processes related to early diagenetic nodulation in Ammonitico Rosso facies most probably account for the incorporation of these elements in the calcium carbonate lattice. The clear decoupling of carbonate manganese abundance with respect to the remaining elements is documented and related to high sea floor spreading rates and hydrothermal activity during the Late Jurassic. The investigation of potential time‐fluctuation of geochemical patterns was approached through variogram computation. The observed temporal behaviour is most likely to be forced by relative sea‐level dynamics, reflecting Late Jurassic palaeoceanographic conditions and potential planetary interactions. The data obtained in this study highlight the utility of elemental data from carbonate matrix micrites as geochemical proxies for studying the influence of remote trigger factors.  相似文献   
38.
We describe a project for the measurement of elemental composition of the primary cosmic radiation to be performed by a space observatory orbiting around the Moon. The absence of atmosphere and the low intrinsic magnetic field of the Moon give access to the very low energy component of the cosmic radiation, allowing the search for rare events.The quest for antinuclei, the determination of the lunar lepton albedo and the abundance measurement of galactic radioactive clocks (Be10, C14, Al26) are the major tasks of the ANTARES apparatus (ANTimatter Assessment RESearch).We report details of the instrument design, the expected performance for single detectors, their capability to accomplish the proposed measurements and the characteristics of the space mission.  相似文献   
39.
40.
Some mechanisms which are expected to produce the growth of dust grains in the protosolar nebula are studied during the isothermal and the adiabatic phase of the gravitational collapse. Owing to the low sticking efficiency in the grain-grain collisions and also to the impossibility of gas capture by solid particles in the physical environment considered, the main result is the production in about 106 yr of a set of particles similar in mass. The obtained mass limit (10−8–10−9 g) depends on the physical properties of the grains, and seems to be independent of the turbulence model used for the gas motion.  相似文献   
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