Rainfall stochastic modeling for runoff forecasting

Rainfall fields estimation over a catchment area is an important stage in many hydrological applications. In this context, weather radars have several advantages because a single-site can scan a vast area with very high temporal and spatial resolution. The construction of weather radar systems with dual polarization capability allowed progress on radar rainfall estimation and its hydro-meteorological applications. For these applications of radar data it is necessary to remove the ground clutter contamination with an algorithm based on the backscattering signal variance of the differential reflectivity. The calibration of the GDSTM model (Gaussian Displacements Spatial-Temporal Model), a cluster stochastic generation model in continuous space and time, is herewith presented. In this model, storms arrive in a Poisson process in time with cells occurring in each storm that cluster in space and time. The model is calibrated, using data collected by the weather radar Polar 55C located in Rome, inside a square area of 132 × 132 km², with the radar at the centre. The GDSTM is fitted to sequences of radar images with a time interval between the PPIs scans of 5 min. A generalized method of moment procedure is used for parameter estimation. For the validation of the ability of the model to reproduce internal structure of rain event, a geo-morphological rainfall-runoff model, based on width function (WFIUH), was calibrated using simulated and observed data. Several rainfall fields are generated with the stochastic model and later they are used as input of the WFIUH model so that the forecast discharges can be compared to the observed ones.     

Magma storage and ascent at Lipari Island (Aeolian archipelago, Southern Italy) at 223–81 ka: the role of crustal processes and tectonic influence

Fluid inclusion studies together with volcanological and petrochemical data allow reconstruction of the magma feeding system of basaltic-andesitic to andesitic activity during the oldest and intermediate stages of development of Lipari Island (223–81 ka). A major magma storage zone is active during the overall investigated time span at depths of 22 km, close to the crust-mantle Moho transition, at which mantle-derived mafic magmas tend to accumulate due to neutral buoyancy conditions. Beneath central-type volcanoes (M. Mazzacaruso, M. S.Angelo, M. Chirica-Costa d’Agosto), a shallower magma reservoir is located within the upper crust at 5.5–3.5 km, associated with a major lithological discontinuity. For fissural-type volcanoes (Timpone Ospedale, Monterosa, M. Chirica), tectonic structures are suggested to influence further magma ascent and storage at mid-crustal depths (∼14 km), with no ponding at shallower levels. Partial crustal melting processes at the roofs of the deep magma reservoirs (∼17 km) are invoked to explain the origin of cordierite-bearing lavas beneath M. S.Angelo and M. Chirica-Costa d’Agosto volcanoes, which were active during the intermediate stages of development of Lipari (105–81 ka). The generation of felsic anatectic melts in the lower crust could have created density and rheologic barriers to impede the passage of mafic melts and promote their ponding, with influence on the subsequent evolution of Lipari volcano.     

On the formation and stability of Uranus' rings

We discuss the possibility of outlining a global model of formation and evolution for the Uranian rings with the minimum allowance for arbitrary assumptions. A condition for the stability of the -ring against differential precession is derived and compared with the similar results by Goldreich and Tremaine (1979). We discuss the problem of the long-term stability of the rings against collisional broadening, showing that the assumption of a confinement due only to self-gravitation requires the presence of a large amount of mass in the rings (10²²–10²³ g for the -ring). This latter hypothesis seems difficult to accept both for observational and for theoretical reasons, so that we suggest that some other confining mechanism (even if more peculiar) should work for this system. Finally we describe a possible scenario for the formation of the rings based on the idea of the break-up at the Roche limit of a tidally evolved satellite: we assume a sequence of events which appears, at least qualitatively, adequate to account for the observational evidence and endowed with a low degree of arbitrarity.Paper presented at the European Workshop on Planetary Sciences, organised by the Laboratorio di Astrofisica Spaziale di Frascati, and held between April 23–27, 1979, at the Accademia Nazionale del Lincei in Rome, Italy.     

Coastal Phytoplankton Do Not Rest in Winter

The climatology and interannual variability of winter phytoplankton was analyzed at the Long Term Ecological Research Station MareChiara (LTER-MC, Gulf of Naples, Mediterranean Sea) using data collected from 1985 to 2006. Background winter chlorophyll values (0.2–0.5 μg chl a dm⁻³) were associated with the dominance of flagellates, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophores. Winter biomass increases (<5.47 μg chl a dm⁻³) were often recorded until 2000, generally in association with low-salinity surface waters (37.3–37.9). These blooms were most often caused by colonial diatoms such as Chaetoceros spp., Thalassiosira spp., and Leptocylindrus danicus. In recent years, we observed more modest and sporadic winter biomass increases, mainly caused by small flagellates and small non-colonial diatoms. The resulting negative chl a trend over the time series was associated with positive surface salinity and negative nutrient trends. Physical and meteorological conditions apparently exert a strict control on winter blooms, hence significant changes in winter productivity can be foreseen under different climatic scenarios.     

Compressional reworking of the East African Orogen in the Uluguru Mountains of eastern Tanzania at c. 550 Ma: implications for the final assembly of Gondwana

The Uluguru Mountains of eastern Tanzania represent a key area to unravel the tectonic history of Gondwana assembly along the Neoproterozoic East African Orogen. On the basis of combined structural and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological investigations, we have re‐interpreted the structural architecture of the region. Texturally‐late, ductile to cataclastic low‐angle tectonic contacts are recognized, which delimit the contacts between the main lithological units that form a post‐metamorphic, NW‐verging nappe stack. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology places this nappe‐forming event at c. 550 Ma, post‐dating tonalitic dyke emplacement at c. 580 Ma. Results from this study (i) demonstrate that a distinct and later episode of convergence occurred in the region at c. 550 Ma, when previous structural elements of the East African Orogen were finally juxtaposed; and (ii) extends models involving the polyphase assembly of Gondwana to East Africa.     

An explanation for the light curve of Jupiter's and Saturn's satellites

Several satellites of Jupiter and Saturn show an asymmetric reflectance between the leading hemisphere (which is generally brighter for the inner satellites of both systems) and the trailing one (which is brighter for the outer satellites Callisto and Iapetus). In order to seek a unified explantation of these observational data we assume that, during the final phase of the satellite accumulation process, the surfaces were subjected to a heavy meteoroidal bombardment by the residual bodies in the circumplanetary protosatellite swarms. With suitable hypotheses about the orbital elements of these bodies, the resulting collision rate is anisotropic in an opposite way for inner and outer satellites, with a difference between the two hemispheres of the order of 10–20% for all satellites except Iapetus (for which the anisotropy is larger). We conclude that the model can qualitatively account for the observed effect, even if it is difficult to propose a detailed mechanism for changing the albedo properties of the satellite surfaces by means of meteoroidal collisions.     

Formation of cordierite-bearing lavas during anatexis in the lower crust beneath Lipari Island (Aeolian arc,Italy)

Cordierite-bearing lavas (CBL;~105 ka) erupted from the Mt. S. Angelo volcano at Lipari (Aeolian arc, Italy) are high-K andesites, displaying a range in the geochemical and isotopic compositions that reflect heterogeneity in the source and/or processes. CBL consist of megacrysts of Ca-plagioclase and clinopyroxene, euhedral crystals of cordierite and garnet, microphenocrysts of orthopyroxene and plagioclase, set in a heterogeneous rhyodacitic-rhyolitic groundmass containing abundant metamorphic and gabbroic xenoliths. New petrographic, chemical and isotopic data indicate formation of CBL by mixing of basaltic-andesitic magmas and high-K peraluminous rhyolitic magmas of anatectic origin and characterize partial melting processes in the lower continental crust of Lipari. Crustal anatectic melts generated through two main dehydration-melting peritectic reactions of metasedimentary rocks: (1) Biotite + Aluminosilicate + Quartz + Albite = Garnet + Cordierite + K-feldspar + Melt; (2) Biotite + Garnet + Quartz = Orthopyroxene + Cordierite + K-feldspar + Melt. Their position into the petrogenetic grid suggests that heating and consequent melting of metasedimentary rocks occurred at temperatures of 725 < T < 900°C and pressures of 0.4–0.45 GPa. Anatexis in the lower crust of Lipari was induced by protracted emplacement of basic magmas in the lower crust (~130 Ky). Crustal melting of the lower crust at 105 ka affected the volcano evolution, impeding frequent mafic-magma eruptions, and promoting magma stagnation and fractional crystallization processes.     

Evidence of a full West Antarctic Ice Sheet back to the early Oligocene: insight from double dating of detrital apatites in Ross Sea sediments.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most unstable component of the Antarctic cryosphere. Its fluctuations are well documented since the Pliocene, but its behaviour over the last 35 Ma is more controversial, particularly during periods of past high global pCO₂ values similar to those predicted in future global climate scenarios. Here, we present new U–Pb dating of detrital apatite grains (previously dated by the fission‐track method) from Cape Roberts Project Oligocene to Pliocene marine sediments in the Ross Sea. Two past ice‐flow patterns were identified: one formed by outlet glaciers sourcing short‐travelled apatites and one, northerly directed, bringing far‐travelled apatite grains. The latter provides the first robust physical evidence for the presence and repeated expansion of an Oligocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet.