The participation of core stakeholders in the design of,and challenges to,the US Clean Power Plan

We examine the participation of stakeholders in the rule-making process leading to the design of the US Clean Power Plan (CPP), which was the cornerstone regulation developed during the Obama administration to lower GHG emissions from power plants in the US. Using publicly available information, we identify the core stakeholders that participated in the different stages of the rulemaking process, from the early draft of the rule to its publication in final form, and examine variables that could help explain their decisions to litigate, either against or in favour of the final version of the rule. We show that the ‘pro-CPP’ stakeholders were (a) more likely to participate during the early stages of the rule-making process, attending meetings with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) staff to discuss rule content, and (b) less likely to get involved during the litigation process. ‘Anti-CPP’ stakeholders, on the other hand, did the opposite, being in general less active during the rulemaking stages, and more active during the litigation stage. However, we also find that the ‘anti-CPP’ stakeholders were more tightly organized as a coalition when compared to the ‘pro-CPP’ stakeholders throughout the process (even in the early stages when they participated less). Our results shed new light on the way advocacy coalitions operate in the climate policy subsystem in the US, and help inform debates about the likelihood of conflict and cooperation across a variety of environmental policy topics.

Key policy insights

• The design of the Clean Power Plan was a long and contentious process in which ‘Pro’ and ‘Anti-CPP’ coalitions operated to support and undermine the rule, respectively.

• ‘Pro-CPP’ stakeholders were more active in meetings organized to discuss the CPP with EPA staff, and in submitting written comments.

• ‘Anti-CPP’ stakeholders were more active during litigation, in response to perceived EPA overreach in designing the rule and negative financial impacts on states’ economies.

• Joint participation by ‘Anti-CPP’ stakeholders in meetings conveyed by the EPA to discuss the potential content of the rule helps explain their joint litigation efforts, which hints at their considerable capacity to self-organize as a coalition throughout the process.

     

Pb chronology and trace metal geochemistry at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico, as evidenced by a sedimentary record from the Lago Verde crater lake

Lago Verde is a fresh-water maar found on the lower slopes of San Martin volcano, at the Sierra de Los Tuxtlas, Mexico, currently the northernmost remnant of the tropical rain forest in America. ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analyzed in a sediment core were used to reconstruct the historical fluxes of Ag, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg and Zn to the site during the last ∼ 150 yr. The ²¹⁰Pb_xs-derived sediment accumulation rates, the magnetic susceptibility, C/N ratios and δ¹³C data evidenced background conditions at the lake until 1960s, when enhanced erosion related to the clearing of large forested areas at Los Tuxtlas promoted higher accumulation rates of a heavier and more magnetic sedimentary material. Recent sediments from Lago Verde were found enriched by Pb (26-fold natural concentration level [NCLs]) and moderately enriched by Cd > Cu > Zn and Hg (6-, 5-, 4- and 4-fold corresponding NCLs, respectively). The fluxes of Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn have significantly increased since 1940s, with peak ratios of total modern to pre-industrial fluxes of 11, 11, 19 and 49, respectively. The lake occupies a relatively pristine, non-industrialized basin, and therefore the increased metal fluxes might be related to long-distance aeolian transport of trace metals.     

Isotopic and thermochronologic evidence of extremely cold lithosphere associated with a slab flattening in the Central Andes of Argentina

We present mineralogic, isotopic and thermochronologic analyses on psammopelitic and tuffaceous levels from the Bermejo and Vinchina basins – both foreland depocentres of the Central Andes of Argentina – that define a low‐temperature regime for the crust akin to a slab shallowing and flattening process. The contents of illite in illite/smectite interstratified (I/S) show a progressive illitization into the deeper parts of both basins. The distribution of I/S is compatible with theoretical simulations and predicted heat flow values of ca. 26 mW m^?2 in the 8–3.4 Ma interval for the Vinchina Basin and ca. 42 mW m^?2 since 9 Ma for the Bermejo Basin. The latter shows heat flow values that are comparable to those reported by magnetotelluric analysis (36–40 mW m^?2) in agreement with previously published heat flow calculations along the modern Andean foreland. The Rb–Sr isochrones in psammopelites (<2 μm fractions) show ages between 125 and 165 Ma, whereas the K–Ar ages decrease as the grain size is smaller (136–224 Ma for 1–2 μm, 112–159 Ma for 0.2–1 μm, 76–116 Ma for <0.2 μ and 39.3–42 Ma for <0.1 μm). These ages are significantly older than the sedimentation in the basins (ca. 16 Ma for the Vinchina Basin; U–Pb age), and can be explained by the presence of a significant amount of detrital components, mainly illite, even in the finer fractions. The preservation of detrital ages is consistent with the shallow diagenesis related to a low‐temperature regime, proposed here for the basins. Younger K–Ar ages (21.3–12 Ma) were obtained for a basal tuffaceous level. Clay mineralogy and R0 ordering in the deepest part of the Vinchina Basin, together with the evolution model of I/S with depth, suggest that the burial temperatures would have not exceeded ca. 100°C in agreement with (U–Th)/He analyses performed on apatite extracted from two tuffaceous units. Thermal indicators from both studied basins confirm the existence of a low‐temperature regime during flat subduction.     

Forecasting Zonda Wind Occurrence with Vertical Sounding Data

Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.     

Mutual phenomena of Jupiter's satellites

Observations of an occultation of Europa by Io are fitted by a model light curve. The model has five free parameters, namely the radius of Europa, the impact parameter, the brightness ratio of the satellites, the time of midevent and the mean relative velocity. The model assumes a fixed value for the radius of Io and for the solar phase angle α, and that Europa has a uniform surface brightness. The OC residuals of the best fitting light curve are very small (～0.002 mag) and of a purely random nature; there is no evidence of albedo features. Taking α = 0 does not affect significantly the quality of the fit. Six mutual eclipses were also observed, and their times of minima agree well with the predictions of Aksnes Icarus21 (1974). For two events these predictions differ by about 20 min from those of Brinkmann and Millis Sky & Telescope45 (1973).     

Storm Dispersal of Volcanogenic Sands from Buenos Aires, Where Heavy-Metal Concentrations Are Heavy-Mineral Segregations

The southeastern beaches and inner shelf of the Buenos Aires coastline are dominated by storms coming from the south and southeast. Erosion is dominant at the coastal cliffs and abrasion platforms, while deposition is extended below the 9-m contour depth. In relation to sand abundance on the inner shelf, there is a northward transition between shelly sand sheets, a fine-sand ribbon field, and sand ridges with oblique megaripples. Side-scan records indicate the selective sorting processes that lead to grain size diminishing to the north, and heavy-mineral enrichment, either at the beach or on the shelf. These storm-induced effects should be considered when evaluating placers on the inner shelf or monitoring the heavy-metal content in sediments. Two-way analyses of variance (ANOVA) tests were used to establish the grain-size effects on heavy-metal analysis.     

Seismic expression of active extensional faults in northern Umbria (Central Italy)

This paper deals with the geometry and kinematics of the active normal faults in northern Umbria, and their relationship with the seismicity observed in the area. In particular, we illustrate the contribution of seismic reflection data (a network of seismic profiles, NNW–SSE and WSW–ENE trending) in constraining at depth the geometry of the different active fault systems and their reciprocal spatial relationships. The main normal fault in the area is the Alto Tiberina fault, NNW trending and ENE dipping, producing a displacement of about 5 km, and generating a continental basin (Val Tiberina basin), infilled by up to 1500 m with Upper Pliocene–Quaternary deposits. The fault has a staircase trajectory, and can be traced on the seismic profiles to a depth of about 13 km. A set of WSW-dipping, antithetic faults can be recognised on the profiles, the most important of which is the Gubbio fault, bordering an extensional Quaternary basin and interpreted as an active fault based on geological, geomorphologic and seismological evidence. The epicentral distribution of the main historical earthquakes is strictly parallel to the general trend of the normal faults. The focal mechanisms of the major earthquakes show a strong similarity with the attitude of the extensional faults, mapped at the surface and recognised on the seismic profiles. These observations demonstrate the connection between seismicity in the area and the activity of the normal faults. Moreover, the distribution of the instrumental seismicity suggests the activity of the Alto Tiberina fault as the basal detachment for the extensional tectonics of the area. Finally, the action of the Alto Tiberina fault was simulated using two dimensional finite element modelling: a close correspondence between the concentration of shear stresses in the model and the distribution of the present earthquakes was obtained.     

Lead pollution in subtropical ecosystems on the SE Gulf of California Coast: a study of concentrations and isotopic composition

Lead pollution was investigated in environmental matrices and biological indicators collected from two typical subtropical coastal ecosystems in the southeast Gulf of California, Mexico. Lead concentrations and isotopic compositions ((206)Pb/(207)Pb and (208)Pb/(207)Pb) were measured using high resolution inductively-coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS) and thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS), respectively. Lead in surface estuary sediments (10.0-34.2microgg(-1)) and particulate Pb (25.0-128.7microgg(-1), >98% of total Pb) in the water column were significantly higher than levels in natural bedrock soils (15.1+/-8.3microgg(-1)) and river runoff (1.9+/-1.4microgg(-1)). Aquatic plants had Pb concentrations between 2.5 and 7.2microgg(-1), while those in macroalgae ranged from 3 to 5microgg(-1). The ranges of mean Pb concentrations in the aquatic animals studied (ranges in microgg(-1)) were as follows: zooplankton 32+/-3, mussels 2.3-3.9, oysters 1.9-7.9, snail 2.0-7.7, barnacles 0.1-18.5, fish 1.4-8.9, crab 6.3-40.2 and polychaetae 8.5-16.7. Pb values in 20-40% of oyster and fish samples and in all samples of crab exceeded acceptable levels for a food source for human consumption. Pb isotope ratios (206)Pb/(207)Pb, (208)Pb/(207)Pb in biota ranged from 1.188 to 1.206 and 2.448 to 2.470, respectively. A plot of (206)Pb/(207)Pb versus (208)Pb/(207)Pb for the environmental and biological samples collected from two study areas indicates that they contain lead from ores mined in Mexico and used in the past to produce leaded gasoline in use until 1997, natural Pb weathered from the Sierra Madre Occidental mother rock, and the later influence of inputs from a more radiogenic source related to industrial activity in the United States. Statistical software IsoSource results revealed that the Pb contained in environmental matrices and biomonitors is mostly derived from gasoline (20-90%) and US emissions (10-40%).     

Tschermak fractionation in calc-alkaline magmas: the Eocene Sabzevar volcanism (NE Iran)

Calc-alkaline arc magmatism at convergent plate margins is volumetrically dominated by metaluminous andesites. Many studies highlighted the importance of differentiation via fractionation processes of arc magmas, but only in the last decades, it has been demonstrated that not all rock-forming minerals may affect the evolution of calc-alkaline suites. In particular, a major role exerted by Al-rich hornblende amphibole as fractionating mineral phase has been documented in many volcanic arc settings. The aim of this work is to understand the role of the Tschermak molecule (CaAlAlSiO₆) hosted in the hornblende and plagioclase fractionation assemblage in driving magma differentiation in calc-alkaline magmatic suites. We explore this issue by applying replenishment–fractional crystallization (RFC) and rare earth element–Rayleigh fractional crystallization (REE-FC) modeling to the Sabzevar Eocene (ca. 45–47 Ma) calc-alkaline volcanism of NE Central Iran, where hornblende-controlled fractionation has been demonstrated. Major element mass balance modeling indicates RFC dominated by a fractionating assemblage made of Hbl_52.0–52.5 + Pl_44.1–44.2 + Ttn_3.3–3.9 (phases are expressed on total crystallized assemblage). REE-FC modeling shows, instead, a lower degree of fractionation with respect to RFC models that is interpreted as due to hornblende and plagioclase resorption by the residual melt. Calculations demonstrate that fractionation of the Tschermak molecule can readily produce dacite and rhyolite magmas starting from a calc-alkaline andesite source (FC = ca. 30 %). In particular, the Tschermak molecule controls both the heavy rare earth elements (HREE) and light rare earth element (LREE) budgets in calc-alkaline differentiation trends.     

Geochemical monitoring of the 2002–2003 eruption at Stromboli volcano (Italy): precursory changes in the carbon and helium isotopic composition of fumarole gases and thermal waters

Significant changes in the helium and carbon isotopic composition of shallow thermal waters vs. gas and a crater fumarolic gas have been recorded at Stromboli prior and during the 2002–2003 eruption. The³He/⁴He ratios corrected for air contamination (Rc/Ra), and δ¹³C of fumarolic gases gradually increased from May to November 2002 before the eruption onset. These variations imply early degassing of a gas-rich magma at depth that likely fed both the intense Strombolian activity and small lava overflows recorded during that period. The lava effusion of late December 2002 was shortly preceded by a marked Rc/Ra decrease both in water and fumarolic gases. Comparison of He/CO₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios in dissolved gas and with values rules out the Rc/Ra decrease due to an increasing input of radiogenic⁴He. The Rc/Ra decrease is attributed to the He isotope fractionation during rapid magma ascent and degassing. A new uprising of ³He-rich magma probably occurred in January to February 2003, when Rc/Ra ratios displayed the highest values in dissolved gases ever measured before (4.56 Rc/Ra). The increase in He/CO₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios and decrease in δ¹³C of dissolved CO₂ was recorded after the 5 April 2003 explosive paroxysm, likely caused by enhanced gas-water interaction inducing CO₂ dissolution. No anomalous Rc/Ra values were recorded in the same period, when usual Strombolian activity gradually resumed.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara