Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Formation of iron sulfide nodules during anaerobic oxidation of methane

The biomarker compositions of iron sulfide nodules (ISNs; upper Pliocene Valle Ricca section near Rome, Italy) that contain the ferrimagnetic mineral greigite (Fe₃S₄) were examined. In addition to the presence of specific terrestrial and marine biomarkers, consistent with formation in coastal marine sediments, these ISNs contain compounds thought to originate from sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB). These compounds include a variety of low-molecular-weight and branched alkanols and several non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers (DGDs). In addition, archaeal biomarkers, including archaeol, macrocyclic isoprenoidal DGDs and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers are also present. Both SRB and archaeal lipid δ¹³C values are depleted in ¹³C (δ¹³C values are typically less than −50‰), which suggests that the SRB and archaea consumed ¹³C depleted methane. These biomarker and isotopic signatures are similar to those found in cold seeps and marine sediments where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) occurs with sulfate serving as the terminal electron acceptor. Association of AOM with formation of greigite-containing ISNs could provide an explanation for documented remagnetization of the Valle Ricca sediments. Upward migration of methane, subsequent AOM and associated authigenic greigite formation are widespread processes in the geological record that have considerable potential to compromise paleomagnetic records.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in Estuarine Tributaries

The distribution and intensity of hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) in estuaries is increasing worldwide due to cultural eutrophication. This study quantifies the strength of associations between the duration of diel-cycling severe hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l⁻¹) in bottom water (∼15 cm above bottom) of a shallow (<2 m) coastal lagoon estuary (Delaware, USA) and abiotic environmental variables (water temperature, insolation, tide, streamflow, and wind) and predicts the duration of severe hypoxia given different combinations of these variables. The intensity and spatial extent and dynamics of diel-cycling severe hypoxia events were defined. Vertical variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration during the daytime was also determined. During the summers of 2001–2005, bottom DO data were collected for periods of weeks to months at multiple sites using automated sondes. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression tree analysis (RTA) were used to determine the relative importance of the environmental variables in predicting the number of hours of severe hypoxia per day. Key findings of the study were that severe hypoxia events of minutes to hours in duration occurred frequently in all four tributaries sampled, primarily between 0200 and 1000 hours. Severe hypoxia duration and diel-cycling amplitudes of DO concentration increased in the up-tributary direction. Hierarchically, the duration of severe hypoxia was influenced mostly by the mean daily water temperature, then by preceding days’ total insolation, percentage of morning hours (02:00 to 10:00 a.m.) ebb tide, and daily streamflow. Collectively, the variables examined by the MLR and the RTA approaches accounted for 62% and 65% of the variability in the duration of severe hypoxia, respectively. RTA demonstrated that daily mean water temperature above 26.3°C and previous day’s total insolation below 13.6 kW m⁻² were associated with the longest lasting severe hypoxic events (9.56 h). The environmental variables and combinations of conditions that modulate or augment diel-cycling hypoxia presented in this paper enhance understanding of this widespread and growing phenomenon and provide additional insight regarding the extent to which it can impact food webs in very shallow estuarine waters that often serve as nursery habitat.     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

PLL Tracking Performance in the Presence of Oscillator Phase Noise

The tracking performance of a Phase Lock Loop (PLL) is affected by the influence of several error sources. In addition to thermal noise and dynamic stress error, oscillator phase noise can cause significant phase jitter which degrades the tracking performance. Oscillator phase noise is usually caused by two different effects: Allan deviation phase noise is caused by frequency instabilities of the receiver's reference oscillator and the satellite's frequency standard. It can be termed as system-inherent phase noise and is relevant for both static and dynamic applications. “External” phase noise, however, is caused by vibration and is a major problem for dynamic applications. In the context of this paper, both types of phase noise will be modeled and the resulting integrals will be evaluated for PLLs up to the third order. Besides, phase jitter induced by thermal noise and signal dynamics will also be discussed, thus providing all necessary formulas for analyzing the performance of a phase lock loop in case of different forms of stress. Since the main focus is centered on the effects of oscillator phase noise, the overall PLL performance is graphically illustrated with and without consideration of oscillator phase noise. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

控制网优化设计中的蒙特卡罗法

介绍了蒙特卡罗法的基本步骤以及伪随机数的检验方法；结合工程控制网的设计给出了一个实际算例，算例的结果表明该方法切实有效。     

Evaluation of the effect of river style framework on water quality: application of geomorphological factors

The Tarwal River basin with an area of 6560.20 km² is located in the eastern part of Iranian Kurdistan Province. This river crosses the Qorveh and Dehgolan plains and joins the Ghezel Ozan River in Zanjan Province. The importance of this river as a source for drinking water and agricultural and industrial uses in the region necessitates the need for research in this field. The main purpose of this study is to identify the natural features of the riverbed from the perspective of river geomorphology and to investigate their impact on water quality and river self-purification capacity. To achieve this, the river style framework was employed. To investigate the effects of each style framework on the river, a total of 20 samples from the entrance and outlet of styles were obtained using Impact Assessment method and sampling standards which were later analyzed for their quality parameters including T, pH, EC, TDS, TSS, Na, Ca, Mg, K, Cl, F, NO₂, NO₃, SO₄, PO₄, DO, COD and BOD. The results indicated that the changes in the styles lead to changes in water quality and the impact of each style is greater on the physical parameters than the chemical parameters. The river self-purification capacity varied depending on the style. The maximum and the minimum self-purifications occurred in fine-grained Anabranching and low-sinuosity fine-grained styles, respectively.     

V-3θ图的结构与"98.6"暴雨过程预测分析

V-3θ图是成都气象学院欧阳首承教授设计出来的运用图像结构来预测天气的结构预测方法。主要利用大气中的压、湿、湿、风的垂直分布,判断大气滚流对天气演变的影响来预报天气转折性变化。利用V-3θ图对桂林站1998年6月份的暴雨过程作一个综合分析。结果几次特强的降水都在V-3θ图上有较好的反映。该方法对无明显降水的天气也能作定性的判断。     

Output-only identification of the modal and physical properties of structures using free vibration response

The viability of a complete structural characterization of civil structures is explored and discussed. In particular, the identification of modal (i.e. natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal shapes) and physical properties (i.e. mass and stiffness) using only the structure’s free decay response is studied. To accomplish this, modal analysis from free vibration response only (MAFVRO) and mass modification (MM) methodologies are engaged along with Wavelet based techniques for optimal signal processing and modal reconstruction. The methodologies are evaluated using simulated and experimental data. The simulated data are extracted from a simple elastic model of a 5 story shear building and from a more realistic nonlinear model of a RC frame structure. The experimental data are gathered from shake table test of a 2-story scaled shear building. Guidelines for the reconstruction procedure from the data are proposed as the quality of the identified properties is shown to be governed by adequate selection of the frequency bands and optimal modal shape reconstruction. Moreover, in cases where the structure has undergone damage, the proposed identification scheme can also be applied for preliminary assessment of structural health.