Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary: A Lagrangian modeling study

A Lagrangian particle method embedded within a 2-D finite element code, is used to study the transport and ocean–estuary exchange processes in the well-mixed Great Bay Estuarine System in New Hampshire, USA. The 2-D finite element model, driven by residual, semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents, includes the effects of wetting and drying of estuarine mud flats through the use of a porous medium transport module. The particle method includes tidal advection, plus a random walk model in the horizontal that simulates sub-grid scale turbulent transport processes. Our approach involves instantaneous, massive [O(500,000)] particle releases that enable the quantification of ocean–estuary and inter-bay exchanges in a Markovian framework. The effects of the release time, spring–neap cycle, riverine discharge and diffusion strength on the intra-estuary and estuary–ocean exchange are also investigated.The results show a rather dynamic interaction between the ocean and the estuary with a fraction of the exiting particles being caught up in the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current and swept away. Three somewhat different estimates of estuarine residence time are calculated to provide complementary views of estuary flushing. Maps of residence time versus release location uncover a strong spatial dependency of residence time within the estuary that has very important ramifications for local water quality. Simulations with and without the turbulent random walk show that the combined effect of advective shear and turbulent diffusion is very effective at spreading particles throughout the estuary relatively quickly, even at low (1 m²/s) diffusivity. The results presented here show that a first-order Markov Chain approach has applicability and a high potential for improving our understanding of the mixing processes in estuaries.     

Numerical experiments on the stability of preplanetary disks

Gravitational stability of gaseous protostellar disks is relevant to theories of planetary formation. Stable gas disks favor formation of planetesimals by the accumulation of solid material; unstable disks allow the possibility of direct condensation of gaseous protoplanets. We present the results of numerical experiments designed to test the stability of thin disks against large-scale, self-gravitational disruption. The disks are represented by a distribution of about 6 × 10⁴ point masses on a two-dimensional (r, φ) grid. The motions of the particles in the self-consistent gravity field are calculated, and the evolving density distributions are examined for instabilities. Two parameters that have major influences on stability are varied: the initial temperature of the disk (represented by an imposed velocity dispersion), and the mass of the protostar relative to that of the disk. It is found that a disk as massive as 1M_⊙, surrounding a 1M_⊙ protostar, can be stable against long-wavelength gravitational disruption if its temperature is about 300°K or greater. Stability of a cooler disk requires that it be less massive, but even at 100°K a stable disk can have an appreciable fraction ($\text{～}\text{1}\text{3}$) of a solar mass.     

CHILDREN'S PERCEPTION OF A DOWNTOWN SHOPPING CENTER

This paper offers an exploratory investigation of the effects of a child's age on three behavioral constructs (awareness space, activity space, and attitude) concerning a downtown shopping center in Bristol, England. The data are elicited from three samples of Bristol school children defined according to age and are analyzed using statistical inferential procedures. The results disclose that awareness space and activity space consistently increase with age. In addition, attitudinal responses to specific features of the shopping center exhibit a gradual change over a long-term period.     

FT-IR measurements of cold C3H8 cross sections at 7–15 μm for Titan atmosphere

We present absorption cross sections of propane (C₃H₈) at temperatures from 145 K to 297 K in the 690–1550 cm⁻¹ region. Pure and N₂-broadened spectra were measured at pressures from 3 Torr to 742 Torr using a Bruker IFS125 FT-IR spectrometer at JPL. The gas absorption cell, developed at Connecticut College, was cooled by a closed-cycle helium refrigerator. The cross sections were measured and compiled for individual spectra recorded at various experimental conditions covering the planetary atmosphere and Titan. In addition to the cross sections, a propane pseudoline list with a frequency grid of 0.005 cm⁻¹, was fitted to the 34 laboratory spectra. Line intensities and lower state energies were retrieved for each line, assuming a constant width. Validation tests showed that the pseudoline list reproduces discrete absorption features and continuum, the latter contributed by numerous weak and hot band features, in most of the observed spectra within 3%. Based on the pseudoline list, the total intensity in the 690–1550 cm⁻¹ region was determined to be 52.93 (±3%) × 10⁻¹⁹ cm⁻¹/(molecule cm⁻²) at 296 K; this value is within 3% of the average from four earlier studies. Finally, the merit of the pseudoline approach is addressed for heavy polyatomic molecules in support of spectroscopic observation of atmospheres of Titan and other planets. The cold cross sections will be submitted to the HITRAN database (hitran.harvard.edu), and the list of C₃H₈ pseudolines will be available from a MK-IV website of JPL (http://mark4sun.jpl.nasa.gov/data/spec/Pseudo).     

Atmospheric entry profiles from the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity

Accelerometer measurements made by Spirit and Opportunity during their entries through the martian atmosphere are reported. Vertical profiles of atmospheric density, pressure, and temperature with sub-km vertical resolution were obtained using these data between 10 and 100 km. Spirit's temperature profile is ∼10 K warmer than Opportunity's between 20 and 80 km. Unlike all other martian entry profiles, Spirit's temperature profile does not contain any large amplitude, long wavelength oscillations and is nearly isothermal below 30 km. Opportunity's temperature profile contains a strong inversion between 8 and 12 km. A moderate dust storm, which occurred on Mars shortly before these two atmospheric entries, may account for some of the differences between the two profiles. The poorly known angle of attack and unknown wind velocity may cause the temperature profiles to contain errors of tens of Kelvin at 10 km, but these errors would be an order of magnitude smaller above 30 km. On broad scales, the two profiles are consistent with Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) pressure/temperature profiles. Differences exist on smaller scales, particularly associated with the near-isothermal portion of Spirit's profile and the temperature inversion in Opportunity's profile.     

Paleoecology of a Middle Wisconsin Deposit from Southern California

Analysis of a buried deposit in the Diamond Valley of southern California has revealed well-preserved pollen, wood, and diatom remains. Accelerator mass spectrometry dates of 41,200±2100 and 41,490±1380 ¹⁴C yr B.P. place this deposit in marine isotope stage 3. Diatoms suggest a shallow lacustrine environment. Pollen data suggest that several plant communities were present near the site, with grassland, scrub, chaparral, forest, and riparian communities represented. Comparison with modern pollen suggests similarities with montane forests in the nearby San Bernardino and San Jacinto ranges, indicating vegetation lowering by at least 900 m elevation and temperatures 4°–5°C cooler than today. An increase in high-elevation conifer pollen documents climatic cooling near the profile top. Early-profile diatoms are typical of warm water with high alkalinity and conductivity, whereas later diatoms suggest a higher flow regime and input of cooler water into the system. We suggest that the sequence is part of the cooling phase of an interstadial Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle. Records of the middle Wisconsin period are rare in southern California, but the Diamond Valley site is similar to records from Tulare Lake in the San Joaquin Valley and the ODP Site 893A record from Santa Barbara Basin. It is probable that the Diamond Valley assemblage is a local expression of a vegetation type widespread in the ranges and basins of southwestern California during the middle Wisconsin.     

The potential transient dynamics of forests in New England under historical and projected future climate change

Projections of vegetation distribution that incorporate the transient responses of vegetation to climate change are likely to be more efficacious than those that assume an equilibrium between climate and vegetation. We examine the non-equilibrium dynamics of a temperate forest region under historic and projected future climate change using the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. We parameterized LPJ-GUESS for the New England region of the United Sates utilizing eight forest cover types that comprise the regionally dominant species. We developed a set of climate data at a monthly-step and a 30-arc second spatial resolution to run the model. These datasets consist of past climate observations for the period 1901?C2006 and three general circulation model projections for the period 2007?C2099. Our baseline (1971?C2000) simulation reproduces the distribution of forest types in our study region as compared to the National Land Cover Data 2001 (Kappa statistic?=?0.54). Under historic and nine future climate change scenarios, maple-beech-basswood, oaks and aspen-birch were modeled to move upslope at an estimated rate of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5?m?yr^?1 from 1901 to 2006, and continued this trend at an accelerated rate of around 0.5, 0.9 and 1.7?m?yr^?1 from 2007 to 2099. Spruce-fir and white pine-cedar were modeled to contract to mountain ranges and cooler regions of our study region under projected future climate change scenarios. By the end of the 21^st century, 60% of New England is projected to be dominated by oaks relative to 21% at the beginning of the 21^st century, while northern New England is modeled to be dominated by aspen-birch. In mid and central New England, maple-beech-basswood, yellow birch-elm and hickories co-occur and form novel species associations. In addition to warming-induced northward and upslope shifts, climate change causes more complex changes in our simulations, such as reversed conversions between forest types that currently share similar bioclimatic ranges. These results underline the importance of considering community interactions and transient dynamics in modeling studies of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.