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111.
Dryer M. Fry C.D. Sun W. Deehr C. Smith Z. Akasofu S.-I. Andrews M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284
Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues
to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time
prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day')
flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as
part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and
ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions
of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third
model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT,
15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks
through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display
them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported
flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15
July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as
an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to
describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the
asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch
represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and
simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier
as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward
space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.
Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867 相似文献
112.
C.J. Mooney W.R.J. Rolleston F.P. Keenan P.L. Dufton D.L. Pollacco H.R. Magee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1101-1109
We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T eff =26 500±1000 K and log g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity. 相似文献
113.
R. T. Schilizzi W. Aldrich B. Anderson A. Bos R. M. Campbell J. Canaris R. Cappallo J. L. Casse A. Cattani J. Goodman H. J. van Langevelde A. Maccafferri R. Millenaar R. G. Noble F. Olnon S. M. Parsley C. Phillips S. V. Pogrebenko D. Smythe A. Szomoru H. Verkouter A. R. Whitney 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):49-67
114.
Steven J. Ostro Lance A. M. Benner Christopher Magri Jon D. Giorgini Randy Rose Raymond F. Jurgens Donald K. Yeomans Alice A. Hine Michael C. Nolan Daniel J. Scheeres Stephen B. Broschart Mikko Kaasalainen Jean‐Luc Margot 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(11):1563-1574
Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object. 相似文献
115.
Profiles of spectral lines emitted from an accretion ring around an object with strong gravitational field should be affected by Doppler shift, gravitational redshift, and deflection of light. Taking these effects into account, precise line profile of a Keplerian ring around a Kerr black hole for a distant observer is obtained by solving the kinetic equation of photons. 相似文献
116.
F. M. F. El-Sabaa 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1985,37(1):71-79
The equation of motion of a rigid body in Kovaleveskaya case is reduced to a plane motion. By using the method of small parameters introduced by Poincaré, the existence of a periodic solution is established. 相似文献
117.
Titan has been observed with UVES, the UV-Visual Echelle Spectrograph at the Very Large Telescope, with the aim of characterizing the zonal wind flow. We use a retrieval scheme originally developed for absolute stellar accelerometry [Connes, P., 1985. Astrophys. Space Sci., 110, 211-255] to extract the velocity signal by simultaneously taking into account all the lines present in the spectrum. The method allows to measure the Doppler shift induced at a given point by the zonal wind flow, with high precision. The short-wavelength channel (4200-5200 Å) probes one scale height higher than the long-wavelength one (5200-6200 Å), and we observe statistically significant evidence for stronger winds at higher altitudes. The results show a high dispersion. Globally, we detect prograde zonal winds, with lower limits of 62 and 50 m s−1 at the regions centered at 200 and 170 km altitude, but approximately a quarter of the measurements indicates null or retrograde winds. 相似文献
118.
Diurnal variation of the dayside, ionospheric, mid-latitude trough in the southern hemisphere at 800 km: Model and measurement comparison 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
J.J. Sojka W.J. Raitt R.W. Schunk J.L. Parish F.J. Rich 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(12):1375-1382
Our high latitude ionospheric model predicts the existence of a pronounced “dayside” trough in plasma concentration equatorward of the auroral oval in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for solar maximum, winter, and low geomagnetic activity conditions. The trough in the Southern Hemisphere is much deeper than that in the Northern Hemisphere, with the minimum trough density at 800 km being 2 × 103 cm−3 in the Southern Hemisphere and 104 cm−3 in the Northern Hemisphere. The dayside trough has a strong longitudinal (diurnal) dependence and appears between 11:00 and 19:00 U.T. in the Southern Hemisphere and between 02:00 and 08:00 U.T. in the Northern Hemisphere. This dayside trough is a result of the auroral oval moving to larger solar zenith angles at those universal times when the magnetic pole is on the antisunward side of the geographic pole. As the auroral ionization source moves to higher geographic latitudes, it leaves a region of declining photoionization on the dayside. For low convection speeds, the ionosphere decays and a dayside trough forms. The trough is deeper in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere because of the greater offset between the geomagnetic and geographic poles. Satellite data taken in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres confirm the gross features of the dayside trough, including its strong longitudinal dependence, its depth, and the asymmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere troughs. 相似文献
119.
北天山东段康古尔塔格带是晚古生代塔里木板块和准噶尔板块碰撞的结果。它是一条复杂的、强烈的高应变带.并具有独特的变形机制、应变序列以及构造变形。本文运用构造-地层研究方法对该碰撞带的构造特征加以分析和研究。 相似文献
120.
在太阳活动区的物理研究中,特别是在二维动力学光谱分析中,迫切需要相应活动区的磁图资料。本文介绍了在太阳光谱仪的入射狭缝后安装一种新型偏振器进行活动区二维磁场观测的新方法。这种方法不仅能获得日面上任一点的磁场强度,且可快速获得活动区的纵向场磁图。除此之外,还可利用多条谱线的同时观测,获得有关磁力线管结构等方面的资料。 相似文献