Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps

This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.     

Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.     

Orientation of the galactic magnetic field in the vicinity of the solar system

It is found from analysis of the position angles of the plane of polarization of about 3000 stars (¦b¦ 5° andP 0.5%) that the angle between the magnetic field and the equatorial plane of the galaxy is approximately 0–5°. The distance within which the local magnetic fields of the galaxy have a greater effect on the position angles of the plane of polarization than the galactic magnetic field is estimated to be about 500 pc. The effect of the galactic magnetic field becomes dominant for distancesr 1000 pc.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 553–559, November, 1996.     

Neutron stars in the multidimensional einstein theory of gravitation

The radius, mass, total number of baryons, and other parameters of static, spherically symmetric, superdense stars are calculated. A model with one Ricci-flat inner space of arbitrary dimensionality and the approximation p₁=?0.5ε + ap for additional components of the energy — momentum tensor are used (ε and ρ are the total energy density and the pressure of the stellar matter and a is a fitting parameter). In the case of white dwarfs, the results of the multidimensional theory do not depend on the dimensionality D of space-time for ?10 ? a ? 10 and coincide with the analogous data of the general theory of relativity (GTR). For neutron stars there is a dependence on D and a. For D>4, in particular, the greatest mass M_max of a neutron star as a function of a has a maximum at 3<a(D) ? 4, which exceeds the greatest mass M _max ⁰ =2.14 M_⊙ in the GTR. A comparison of theoretical results with observational data determines the allowable values of a. Data for PSR 1913 + 16 lead to 0.2 ≤ a ≤ 9.2 in the case of D=26, while the results of [P. C. Joss and S. A. Rappaport, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys.,22, 537 (1984)] lead to the stricter limits 1 ≤ a ≤ 7.4.     

The Taconite Inlet Lakes Project: a systems approach to paleoclimatic reconstruction

A comprehensive study of meteorological, hydrological, limnological and sedimentological conditions in the watersheds of density-stratified (meromictic) lakes around Taconite Inlet, Northern Ellesmere Island, N.W.T., Canada was carried out from 1990–1992. Lakes C1 and C2 contain seawater trapped by isostatic uplift as the former embayments became isolated from the sea. These lakes, and Lake C3, contain varved sediments which provide an annually resolvable paleoclimatic record. By studing the major systems influencing sedimentation in one of these lakes (Lake C2) a better understanding of the climatic controls on varve formation, and hence on the paleoclimatic signal in the varved sediment record, was obtained. The varves of Lake C2 provide a proxy record of summer temperature for the region.This is the first in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.     

The relationship between zooplankton,conductivity and lake-water ionic composition in 111 lakes from the Interior Plateau of British Columbia,Canada

Zooplankton collected from vertical net tows were related to the environmental variables from 98 lakes from the Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that both salinity and ionic composition (pH and Mg) of the lake-water made major and significant contributions to the first two ordination axes (=0.42 and 0.11 respectively,P<0.05). BothArtemia franciscana andMoina hutchinsoni had their highest relative abundance in meso-hypersaline waters. However,Artemia franciscana preferred waters that were higher in Mg and Ca, whileMoina hutchinsoni was found in waters that were lower in Mg and Ca. Similarly, at intermediate salinities,Daphnia pulex and the calanoid copepods preferred waters slightly lower in Mg and Ca, whereasCeriodaphnia laticaudata andSimocephalus spp. were relatively more common in waters higher in Mg and Ca. Because the freshest lakes studied varied much less in ionic composition, the zooplankton in these lakes did not show a preference to ionic composition. As expected, multi-generic groups, such as the calanoid copepods, cyclopoid copepods and nauplii, had wider tolerances to conductivity than groups identified to lower taxonomic levels. Significant weighted-averaging regression and calibration models of conductivity were developed based on zooplankton species composition from the study lakes (r ²=0.56,P<0.05). Samples composed largely of multi-generic taxa yielded the worst estimates of salinity in the reconstruction model. This study suggests that zooplankton community composition may be developed into a useful proxy for paleosalinity reconstruction.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

A filament eruption and accompanying coronal field changes on November 5, 1992

An H filament eruption on November 5, 1992 was fully observed in H with the Hida Flare Monitoring Telescope, while Yohkoh's Soft X-ray Telescope observed the pre- and post-eruption evolution of the coronal magnetic fields. From the H data, including the red and blue wings, we have reconstructed the rise of the filament, including trajectory, velocity, and acceleration. In combination with the Yohkoh data this reconstruction suggests that the filament had several interactions with other coronal magnetic fields during the eruption. The Yohkoh data also shows pre-eruption changes in the coronal fields and several post-eruption bright coronal structures. The pre-eruption changes are interpreted as a partial opening of the corona, indicating that it is not necessary to have a complete opening of the corona in order for a filament to erupt and we discuss the several possible contributions from emerging flux. The post-event bright coronal structures are compared with theory and with a cleaner filament eruption event on July 31, 1992. These comparisons suggest that, although there are many similarities, it is hard to completely reconcile the observations with the existing theory.     

The upper mantle structure of the yakutian kimberlite province,eastern Russia

Deep seismic sounding in the region of the Mirnyi kimberlite field indicates that the boundary velocity of the uppermost mantle is elevated (v _b=8.6–8.8 km/sec) and extremely variable near the Mir kimberlite pipe. These velocity heterogeneities are probably associated with the kimberlite magmatism and may be useful in the identification of other kimberlite fields.     

Micromechanics of the velocity and normal stress dependence of rock friction

Among the second-order effects on friction the most important are those of variable normal stress and of slip velocity. Velocity weakening, which is usually considered the source of the stick-slip instability in rock friction, has been observed in velocity stepping experiments with Westerly granite. The friction change, , was –0.01 to –0.008 for a tenfold velocity increase. Using normal closure measurements, we observed dilation upon each increase in sliding rate. We also observed, for the first time, time-dependent closure between surfaces during static loading. The dilation that occurred during the velocity stepping experiment was found to be that expected from the static time-dependent closure phenomenon. This change in closure was used to predict friction change with an elastic contact model. The calculated friction change which results from a change in contact area and asperity interlocking, is in good agreement with the observed velocity dependence of steady-state friction. Variable normal stress during sliding has two effects, first in creating new partial slip contacts and locking some existing fully sliding contacts and second in increasing interlocking, for instance when normal load is suddenly increased. As a result, a transient change in friction occurs upon a sudden change in normal load.