Cause-Effect Models of Large Landslides

Within the scope of the International Decade ofNatural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), cause-effectmodels of large landslides are being developed toestimate hazard. This work is based on a structuralexploration of the landslide areas mainly by seismicmethods. Information about the status of deformationis obtained by comparison of the actual topographywith a reconstruction of the original topography, byGPS, and by SAR interferometry. Geologic andgeomorphological evidence, as well as relevantinformation from other geo-scientific disciplines, isconsidered. The Finite Element Method is used to modelthe initial phase of a mass movement. Later on thismodeling will be extended to the quasi-stationarycreep phase and the transition from creeping to rapidsliding.Four large landslides within the crystalline rocks ofthe Eastern Alps have been investigated since 1997.Two of them are evaluated so far, and are presented inthis paper. The largest one is the Köfelslandslide with a total volume of 3.9 km³ and apotential energy release of 5 × 10¹⁶ Joule.Refraction and reflection multi-component seismictechniques were used to resolve structure and elasticparameters of the landslide masses. For the modelingof the initial phase of the landslides by the FiniteElement Method a strain softening behavior of the rockmass has been assumed. The development of softened orfractured zones was successfully simulated, inagreement with the structures obtained by the seismicmeasurements.     

Esa Microgravity Research Activities In The Field Of Physical Sciences And Applications

During the eighties, microgravity research focussed predominantly on the investigation of fundamental phenomena, often with limited industrial support. Although this approach led to some rather impressive breakthroughs in terms of new theoretical insights and microgravity experimentation, the need for increased co-ordination and interest from industry became increasingly apparent. In this decade, a user-driven research strategy has been instigated by ESA to promote microgravity research. The objective is to coordinate ESA, national activities and industry into an overall European strategy, which will allow valuable application-oriented microgravity research to be performed aboard the International Space Station (ISS). On this basis, it is expected that scientific progress will evolve even more rapidly due to the easier planning, regular access and longer experiment-durations associated with the ISS. This paper highlights the wealth of microgravity research being co-ordinated by ESA in the field of physical sciences. A number of key areas of research under microgravity conditions are currently being explored such as alloy solidification, crystal growth,measurement of thermophysical properties, combustion mechanisms, fluid flow, cold atom physics and complex plasmas, to name but a few. The following sections will provide background information relating to the various ESA research programmes, as well as emphasising their microgravity relevance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices

Background  

Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact.     

Application of stacking and inversion techniques to three-dimensional wide-angle reflection and refraction seismic data of the Eastern Alps

We present new methods for the interpretation of 3-D seismic wide-angle reflection and refraction data with application to data acquired during the experiments CELEBRATION, 2000 and ALP 2002 in the area of the Eastern Alps and their transition to the surrounding tectonic provinces (Bohemian Massif, Carpathians, Pannonian domain, Dinarides). Data was acquired on a net of arbitrarily oriented seismic lines by simultaneous recording on all lines of seismic waves from the shots, which allows 2-D and 3-D interpretations. Much (80%) of the data set consists of crossline traces. Low signal to noise (S/N) ratio in the area of the young orogens decreases the quality of travel time picks. In these seismically heterogeneous areas it is difficult to assign clearly defined arrivals to the seismic phases, in particular on crossline record sections.
In order to enhance the S/N ratio, signal detection and stacking techniques have been applied to enhance the Pg -, Pn - and PmP phases. Further, inversion methods have been developed for the interpretation of WAR/R-data, based on automated 1-D inversion ( Pg ) and the application of the delay time concept ( Pn ). The results include a 3-D velocity model of the crust based on Pg waves, time and depth maps of the Moho and a Pn -velocity map. The models based on stacked data are robust and provide a larger coverage, than models based on travel time picks from single-fold (unstacked) traces, but have relatively low resolution, especially near the surface. They were used as the basis for constructing models with improved resolution by the inversion of picks from single-fold data. The results correlate well with geological structures and show new prominent features in the Eastern Alps area and their surrounds. The velocity distribution in the crust has strong lateral variations and the Moho in the investigation area appears to be fragmented into three parts.     

Gigantic volcanic eruptions and climatic change in the early Eocene

23 layers of altered volcanic ash (bentonites) originating from the North Atlantic Igneous Province have been recorded in early Eocene deposits of the Austrian Alps, about 1,900 km away from the source area. The Austrian bentonites are distal equivalents of the “main ash-phase” in Denmark and the North Sea basin. We have calculated the total eruption volume of this series as 21,000 km³, which occurred in 600,000 years. The most powerful single eruption of this series took place 54.0 million years ago (Ma) and ejected ca. 1,200 km³ of ash material, which makes it one of the largest basaltic pyroclastic eruptions in geological history. The clustering of eruptions must have significantly affected the incoming solar radiation in the early Eocene by the continuous production of stratospheric dust and aerosol clouds. This hypothesis is corroborated by oxygen isotope values, which indicate a global decrease of sea surface temperatures between 1 and 2°C during this major phase of explosive volcanism.     

Total particulate mass in Enceladus plumes and mass of Saturn’s E ring inferred from Cassini ISS images

The eclipse mosaic (PIA08329) of the Saturn system, taken on September 15, 2006 when Cassini was in Saturn’s shadow, contains numerous color images of the Enceladus plume and the E ring at phase angles ranging from 173° to 179°. These forward-scattering observations sample the diffraction peak for particle radii in the 1–5 μm range. The phase angle dependence and total brightness are sensitive indicators of the total mass of solid material in the plume. We fit the data with a variety of particle shapes and size distributions, and find that the median radius of the equivalent-volume sphere is 3.1 μm, with an uncertainty of ±0.5 μm. The total mass of particles in the plume is (1.45 ± 0.5) × 10⁵ kg. We have not considered variations with altitude in the particle size and shape distribution, and we leave that for another paper. We find that the brightness of the E ring varies with position in the orbit, not only because of the viewing geometry, e.g., variations in phase angle, but also because of some unknown intrinsic variability. The total mass of solid material in the E ring is (12 ± 5.5) × 10⁸ kg. For the plume, the production rate of particles – the mass per unit time leaving the vents is 51 ± 18 kg s⁻¹. We estimate that 9% of these particles are escaping from Enceladus, implying lifetimes of ∼8 years for the E ring particles. Based on three comparisons with vapor amounts from ultraviolet spectroscopy, the ice/vapor ratio is in the range 0.35–0.70. This high ratio poses a problem for theories in which particles form by condensation from the gas phase, and could indicate that particles are formed as spray from a liquid reservoir.     

Application of the fluorescence quenching titration method to the complexation of copper (II) in the Gironde Estuary (France)

Quenching of fluorescence emission by the Cu²⁺ ion is measured in five samples from the Gironde Estuary (France). Non-linear regression analysis allows us to calculate from experimental data the values of C_L (complexing capacities or total ligand concentrations), K (conditional stability constants) and I_ML (residual fluorescence at the end of the titration). The results obtained on the Gironde estuarine samples indicate that C_L values are very low (<0.1 micromolar) and K values decrease from upstream to downstream. The relatively high values of I_ML are an indication that much of the organic fluorescing matter does not bind to Cu²⁺.     

Biodiversität und Ökologie aquatischer Oomycetes‐Arten im Auesee und in der Fulda in Kassel (Hessen)

Biodiversity and Ecology of Species of Aquatic Oomycetes in the Aue Lake and the River Fulda in Kassel (Hessen) In this study, we record diversity and ecology of aquatic Oomycetes in the Aue Lake and the river Fulda in Kassel (Hesse, Germany). We monthly collected water samples of both water bodies from July 2003 to June 2004. The baiting method was used to gain an insight into the occurrence of aquatic Oomycetes. A total of 14 species of aquatic Oomycetes belonging to the orders Saprolegniales, Leptomitales and Olpidiopsidales could be isolated of both water bodies. Numerous saprophytic isolates of Rhizophydium Schenk (Chytridiomycetes), Rhizophydium carpophilum (Zopf) Fischer, parasitic on Oomycetes, and additionally one species of Plasmodiophoromycetes, Woronina polycystis Cornu could be isolated. Many isolates of Saprolegniales attributable to the genera Achlya Nees, Dictyuchus Leitgeb, Saprolegnia Nees and Pythium Pringsheim (Pythiales), which could only be identified on generic level, could be isolated as well. The species were examined and discussed with respect to their occurrence in the stagnant water Aue Lake and/or in the running water of the river Fulda. Half of the isolated species only occurred in one of the water bodies. In this study the occurrence of Achlya proliferoides Coker could be documented for Germany for the first time. The trophic status of the Aue Lake and of the classification of water quality of the river Fulda were determined by limnological‐chemical parameters obtained by simultaneous investigations of both water bodies.