Markovian modeling of seismic damage accumulation

Analysis of civil structures at the scale of life‐cycle requires stochastic modeling of degradation. Phenomena causing structures to degrade are typically categorized as aging and point‐in‐time overloads. Earthquake effects are the members of the latter category this study deals with in the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE). The focus is structural seismic reliability, which requires modeling of the stochastic process describing damage progression, because of subsequent events, over time. The presented study explicitly addresses this issue via a Markov‐chain‐based approach, which is able to account for the change in seismic response of damaged structures (i.e. state‐dependent seismic fragility) as well as uncertainty in occurrence and intensity of earthquakes (i.e. seismic hazard). The state‐dependent vulnerability issue arises when the seismic hysteretic response is evolutionary and/or when the damage measure employed is such that the degradation increment probabilistically depends on the conditions of the structure at the time of the shock. The framework set up takes advantage also of the hypotheses of classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, allowing to separate the modeling of the process of occurrence of seismic shocks and the effect they produce on the structure. It is also discussed how the reliability assessment, which is in closed‐form, may be virtually extended to describe a generic age‐ and state‐dependent degradation process (e.g. including aging and/or when aftershock risk is of interest). Illustrative applications show the options to calibrate the model and its potential in the context of PBEE. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NMR Logging to Estimate Hydraulic Conductivity in Unconsolidated Aquifers

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging provides a new means of estimating the hydraulic conductivity (K) of unconsolidated aquifers. The estimation of K from the measured NMR parameters can be performed using the Schlumberger‐Doll Research (SDR) equation, which is based on the Kozeny–Carman equation and initially developed for obtaining permeability from NMR logging in petroleum reservoirs. The SDR equation includes empirically determined constants. Decades of research for petroleum applications have resulted in standard values for these constants that can provide accurate estimates of permeability in consolidated formations. The question we asked: Can standard values for the constants be defined for hydrogeologic applications that would yield accurate estimates of K in unconsolidated aquifers? Working at 10 locations at three field sites in Kansas and Washington, USA, we acquired NMR and K data using direct‐push methods over a 10‐ to 20‐m depth interval in the shallow subsurface. Analysis of pairs of NMR and K data revealed that we could dramatically improve K estimates by replacing the standard petroleum constants with new constants, optimal for estimating K in the unconsolidated materials at the field sites. Most significant was the finding that there was little change in the SDR constants between sites. This suggests that we can define a new set of constants that can be used to obtain high resolution, cost‐effective estimates of K from NMR logging in unconsolidated aquifers. This significant result has the potential to change dramatically the approach to determining K for hydrogeologic applications.     

Seismic risk assessment of interdependent critical infrastructure systems: The case of European gas and electricity networks

We study the seismic vulnerability of the interdependent European gas and electricity transmission networks from a topological point of view, whereby the electricity network depends on the gas network through gas‐fired power plants. First, we assessed the seismic response for each independent network; then we analyzed the increased vulnerability due to their interdependency. We implemented a probabilistic reliability model that encompasses the spatial distribution of both network structures and their seismic hazard exposure using a Geographic Information System. We characterized the network interdependency using the strength of coupling of the interconnections, together with the seismic response of the independent—gas—network. We calculated the network fragility curves of the independent and dependent networks in terms of various performance measures (connectivity loss, power loss, and impact on the population) and found that the gas network is more seismically vulnerable than the electricity network. The interdependency introduces an extra vulnerability to the electricity network response that decreases with the extensiveness of the networks' damage states. Damage was also evaluated at a local level in order to identify the most vulnerable parts of the network, where it was found that the potential for the highest power loss is located in southeast Europe. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volcanological evolution of the Rivi–Capo Volcanic Complex at Salina,Aeolian Islands: magma storage processes and ascent dynamics

Critical to understanding explosive eruptions is establishing how accurately representative pyroclasts are of processes during magma vesiculation and fragmentation. Here, we present data on densities, and vesicle size and number characteristics, for representative pyroclasts from six silicic eruptions of contrasting size and style from Raoul volcano (Kermadec arc). We use these data to evaluate histories of bubble nucleation, coalescence, and growth in explosive eruptions and to provide comparisons with pumiceous dome carapace material. Density/vesicularity distributions show a scarcity of pyroclasts with ～65–75 % vesicularity; however, pyroclasts closest to this vesicularity range have the highest bubble number density (BND) values regardless of eruptive intensity or style. Clasts with vesicularities greater than this 65–75 % “pivotal” vesicularity range have decreasing BNDs with increasing vesicularities, interpreted to reflect continuing bubble growth and coalescence. Clasts with vesicularities less than the pivotal range have BNDs that decrease with decreasing vesicularity and preserve textures indicative of processes such as stalling and open system degassing prior to vesiculation in a microlite-rich magma, or vesiculation during slow ascent of degassing magma. Bubble size distributions (BSDs) and BNDs show variations consistent with 65–75 % representing the vesicularity at which vesiculating magma is most likely to undergo fragmentation, consistent with the closest packing of spheres. We consider that the observed vesicularity range may reflect the development of permeability in the magma through shearing as it flows through the conduit. These processes can act in concert with multiple nucleation events, generating a situation of heterogeneous bubble populations that permit some regions of the magma to expand and bubbles to coalesce with other regions in which permeable networks are formed. Fragmentation preserves the range in vesicularity seen as well as any post-fragmentation/pre-quenching expansion which may have occurred. We demonstrate that differing density pyroclasts from a single eruption interval can have widely varying BND values corresponding to the degree of bubble maturation that has occurred. The modal density clasts (the usual targets for vesicularity studies) have likely undergone some degree of bubble maturation and are therefore may not be representative of the magma at the onset of fragmentation.     

Renewed uplift at the Yellowstone Caldera measured by leveling surveys and satellite radar interferometry

 A first-order leveling survey across the northeast part of the Yellowstone caldera in September 1998 showed that the central caldera floor near Le Hardy Rapids rose 24±5 mm relative to the caldera rim at Lake Butte since the previous survey in September 1995. Annual surveys along the same traverse from 1985 to 1995 tracked progressive subsidence near Le Hardy Rapids at an average rate of –19±1 mm/year. Earlier, less frequent surveys measured net uplift in the same area during 1923–1976 (14±1 mm/year) and 1976–1984 (22±1 mm/year). The resumption of uplift following a decade of subsidence was first detected by satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry, which revealed approximately 15 mm of uplift in the vicinity of Le Hardy Rapids from July 1995 to June 1997. Radar interferograms show that the center of subsidence shifted from the Sour Creek resurgent dome in the northeast part of the caldera during August 1992 to June 1993 to the Mallard Lake resurgent dome in the southwest part during June 1993 to August 1995. Uplift began at the Sour Creek dome during August 1995 to September 1996 and spread to the Mallard Lake dome by June 1997. The rapidity of these changes and the spatial pattern of surface deformation suggest that ground movements are caused at least in part by accumulation and migration of fluids in two sill-like bodies at 5–10 km depth, near the interface between Yellowstone's magmatic and deep hydrothermal systems. Received: 30 November 1998 / Accepted: 16 April 1999     

Patos Lagoon outflow within the Río de la Plata plume using an airborne salinity mapper: Observing an embedded plume

Major river systems discharging into continental shelf waters frequently form buoyant coastal currents that propagate along the continental shelf in the direction of coastal trapped wave propagation (with the coast on the right/left, in the northern/southern hemisphere). The combined flow of the Uruguay and Paraná Rivers, which discharges freshwater into the Río de la Plata estuary (Lat. ∼36°S), often gives rise to a buoyant coastal current (the ‘Plata plume’) that extends northward along the continental shelf off Uruguay and Southern Brazil. Depending upon the prevailing rainfall, wind and tidal conditions, the Patos/Mirim Lagoon complex (Lat. ∼32°S) may also produce a freshwater outflow plume that expands across the inner continental shelf. Under these circumstances the Patos outflow plume can be embedded in temperature, salinity and current fields that are strongly influenced by the larger Plata plume. The purpose of this paper is to present observations of such an embedded plume structure and to determine the dynamical characteristics of the ambient and embedded plumes.     

Effects of sampling effort on the estimation of spatial gradients in a tropical reservoir impacted by an oil refinery

We investigated the effects of increase in sampling effort (30-1043 sampling points) on the accuracy of assessment of the spatial patterns of surface-water quality in a eutrophic tropical reservoir. The investigation was carried out during the dry season, when previous investigations showed that the spatial heterogeneity is more stable. A multi-parameter Yellow Springs Instruments probe coupled to a TechGeo D-GPS was used. This system is equipped to measure and store in a continuous recording mode, several physical and chemical parameters linked to geographical coordinates obtained with a precision of less than 1 m. We used different geostatistical approaches to determine the optimal number of sampling points required to reflect the real spatial patterns of water quality in the system. This approach was tested in a small tropical reservoir (Ibirité) that receives effluents from an oil refinery (the state-owned REGAP oil refinery, PETROBRAS) located near the city of Belo Horizonte. The study showed not only that the spatial patterns of water quality are significantly affected by sampling effort but also it was demonstrated that the establishment of an adequate sampling program is a critical point for the precise identification of source points of pollution. The results of this investigation enabled us to demonstrate the potential uses and limits of this method for rapid assessment of the water quality of lakes and reservoirs that receive external inputs of water contaminants or nutrients.