Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Site classification of Turkish national strong-motion stations

Since 1973, the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs of Turkey has deployed several strong-motion accelerographs at selected sites. Within the framework of the project entitled Compilation of National Strong Ground Motion Database in Accordance with International Standards, site conditions were investigated within the upper 30-m depth by surface seismic and standard penetration tests. Preliminary characterization of the sites is made by making use of both geophysical and geotechnical criteria of NEHRP Provisions and Eurocode-8 site classification systems. The liquefaction susceptibility of those sites which comprise saturated cohesionless deposits is also determined. Mean shear-wave velocity, mean penetration resistance, site class, and liquefaction susceptibility of each site are tabulated. The Turkish strong-motion database supplemented by detailed information on site conditions is a valuable source of information particularly for those studies that put emphasis on the relationship between site conditions and strong-motion parameters.     

Petrogenesis of extension-related alkaline volcanism in Karaburhan (Sivrihisar–Eskisehir), NW Anatolia, Turkey

Alkaline lavas were erupted as phonolites and trachytes around Karaburhan (Sivrihisar–Eskisehir, NW Anatolia) within the Izmir–Ankara–Erzincan suture zone. These volcanic rocks were emplaced as domes, close and parallel to the ophiolite thrust line. According to ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological analyses of sanidine crystals from the phonolites, the age of the alkaline volcanics is 25 Ma (Late Oligocene–Early Miocene).The flow-textured phonolites are porphyritic and consist mainly of sanidine, clinopyroxene, and feldspathoid crystals. The clinopyroxenes show compositional zoning, with aegirine (Na_0.82–0.96Fe⁺³_0.68–0.83) rims and aegirine–augite cores (containing calcium, magnesium, and Fe⁺²). Some aegirine–augites are replaced with sodium-, calcium-, and magnesium-rich amphibole (hastingsite). Feldspathoid (hauyne) crystals enriched with elemental Na and Ca have been almost completely altered to zeolite and carbonate minerals. The fine-grained trachytes with a trachytic texture consist of feldspar (oligoclase and sanidine) phenocrystals and clinopyroxene microphenocrystals within a groundmass made up largely of alkali feldspar microlites.Although there are some differences in their element patterns, the phonolites and trachytes exhibit enrichment in LILEs (Sr, K, Rb, Ba, Th) and LREEs (La, Ce, Pr, Nd) and negative anomalies in Nb and Ta. These geochemical characteristics indicate a lithospheric mantle enriched by fluids extracted from the subduction component. In addition, the high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.706358–0.708052) and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.512546–0.512646) isotope concentrations of the alkaline lavas reflect a mantle source that has undergone metasomatism by subduction-derived fluids. Petrogenetic modeling indicates that the alkaline lavas generated from the subduction-modified lithospheric mantle have undergone assimilation, fractional crystallization, and crustal contamination, acquiring high Pb, Ba, Rb, and Sr contents and Pb isotopic compositions during their ascent through the thickened crust in an extensional setting.     

Middle Pleistocene bivalves of the İznik lake basin (Eastern Marmara, NW Turkey) and a new paleobiogeographical approach

?znik Lake is a tectonically originated basin mainly controlled by the E–W trending middle strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system. Pleistocene sediments occurring in front of the faults are well exposed both in the northern and in the southern shorelines of the basin. In this study, two endemic brackish water bivalve species, Didacna subpyramidata Pravoslavkev 1939 and Didacna nov. sp. were found in the oldest terrace of the northern Pleistocene sequence. Having characterized morphology, these species serve as stratigraphic indicators in the regional Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Ponto-Caspian region, and thus are well correlated to the assemblages of the early Khazarian subhorizon (Middle Pleistocene). Hence, these data demonstrate that the early Khazarian brackish water sea covered the study area. Additionally, a model for the formation of the basin is proposed: the ?znik lake basin was a gulf of the former Marmara Sea in the early Khazarian, connecting the Marmara to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The subsequent regional prograding uplifts, main dextral strike-slip fault and many normal faults of the NAF Zone cut off the marine connections to the basin, leading to its present location and topographic level.     

The effect of seasonally frozen soil on stochastic response of elevated water tank under random excitation

Significant seismic events have occurred around the world during winter months in regions where cold temperatures cause ground freezing. Current seismic design practice does not address the effects of cold temperatures in the seasonally frozen areas. Since many elevated water tank structures in cold regions are located in seismic active zones, determining the effect of seasonally frozen soil on the stochastic response of elevated water tank structures subjected to random seismic excitation is an important structural consideration. A three dimensional finite element model, which considers viscous boundaries, was built up to obtain the stochastic seismic behavior of an elevated water tank–fluid–soil interaction system for frozen soil condition. For this model, the power spectral density function represents random ground motion applied to each support point of the three dimensional finite element model of the elevated water tank–fluid–soil interaction system. Numerical results show that the soil temperature affects the seismic response of the elevated water tank; whereas the variation in the thickness of the frozen soil causes insignificant changes on the response. In addition, the effect of the variation in water tank’s fullness on the stochastic response of the coupled system is investigated in the study. As a result, the seasonal frost changes the foundation soil stiffness and may impact seismic behavior of the water tank.     

Investigating Correlations and Variations of Air Pollutant Concentrations under Conditions of Rapid Industrialization – Kocaeli (1987–2009)

In this study, it was aimed to characterize temporal variations of air pollutants for determining contribution to pollution episodes and to obtain correlations between these pollutants. With this aim we used data analysis for measured sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter (PM, black fume and PM10), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), and non‐methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) recorded in Kocaeli, one of the most industrilizated cities of Turkey. Pollutant concentrations were the results of continuous and semi‐automatic measurements. Semi‐automatic measurements of SO₂ and PM (black fume) were enclosing period from 1987 to 2008 whereas continuous monitoring of all pollutants included years of 2007–2009. In the first stage of the study daily, monthly, annual, and seasonal variations of pollution were researched. Annual average concentrations were compared with limits set by Air Quality Protection Regulation (AQPR), Air Quality Evaluation and Management Regulation (AQEMR), World Health Organization (WHO), European Union (EU), and National Ambient Air Quality Standards (USEPA). In the following stage relationships between pollutants such as NO₂–O₃, NO_x–CO, NO_x–NMHC, and NO_x–SO₂ were investigated and correlation coefficients were determined as 0.87, 0.56, 0.51, and 0.69, respectively. R² values of regression models developed from these correlations were 0.78, 0.56, 0.34, and 0.72, respectively. Vehicle density of the traffic was evaluated with NO_x–O₃ emissions and decrease was seen in NO_x emissions due to decreasing vehicle density at weekends whereas O₃ concentrations increased. These correlations enable prediction of the parameters that cannot be measured which is important for providing improvement in early warning systems.     

Rapid earthquake loss assessment after damaging earthquakes

This article summarizes the work done over the last decades regarding the development of new approaches and setting up of new applications for earthquake rapid response systems that function to estimate earthquake losses in quasi-real time after an earthquake. After a critical discussion of relevant earthquake loss estimation methodologies, the essential features and characteristics of the available loss estimation software are summarized. Currently operating near-real-time loss estimation tools can be classified under two main categories depending on the size of area they cover: global and local systems. For the global or regional near-real-time loss estimation systems: GDACS, WAPMERR, PAGER, and NERIES-ELER methodologies are presented together with their loss estimations for the 2009 Abruzzo (L’Aquila) earthquake in Italy. Examples are provided for the local rapid earthquake loss estimation systems, including the Taiwan Earthquake Rapid Reporting System, Real-time Earthquake Assessment Disaster System in Yokohama, Real Time Earthquake Disaster Mitigation System of the Tokyo Gas Co., and Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System.