Earthquake awareness and perception of risk among the residents of Istanbul

Awareness and perception of risk are among the most crucial steps in the process of taking precautions at individual level for various hazards. In this study, we investigated the factors affecting better knowledge and greater risk perception about earthquakes among residents of Istanbul. A field survey was carried out, and a total of 1,123 people were interviewed in two districts of Istanbul with different seismic risk levels and from three (low, moderate and high) socio-economic levels (SEL). The findings showed that although the level of knowledge regarding earthquakes and preparedness for them was promising, it could be improved. The results indicated that future preparedness programmes should target people with lower educational and socio-economic levels. The media were the leading source of information among the respondents. Location of the home was a strong influence on individuals having above average earthquake knowledge and even more on high risk perception. Socio-economic parameters (educational level, economic status, SEL of the sub-district and tenure of the home), gender and attitude score were other factors influencing greater risk perception with regard to earthquakes.     

Complete Tertiary exhumation history of the Menderes massif, western Turkey: an alternative working hypothesis

The main exhumation of the Menderes massif, western Turkey, occurred along an originally N‐dipping Datça–Kale main breakaway fault that controlled depositions in the Kale and the Gökova basins during the Oligocene – Early Miocene interval. The isostatically controlled upward bending of the main breakaway fault brings the lower plate rocks to the surface. In the Early Miocene, E–W‐trending N‐ and S‐dipping graben‐bounding faults fragmented the exhumed, dome‐shaped massif. The development of half grabens by rolling master fault hinges has allowed further exhumation of the central Menderes massif. After the Pliocene, high‐angle normal faults cut all of the previous structures. This model suggests that the Menderes massif is a single large metamorphic core complex that has experienced a two‐stage exhumation process.     

Dynamic sub-surface characteristic and the active faults of the Genç District locating over the Bingöl Seismic Gap of the East Anatolian Fault Zone,Eastern Turkey

The Genç District is located on the Bingöl Seismic Gap (BSG) of the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) with its?~?34.000 residents. The Karl?ova Triple Junction, where the EAFZ, the North Anatolian Fault Zone, and the Varto Fault Zone meet, is only 80 km NE of the Genç District. To make an earthquake disaster damage prediction of the Genç District, carrying a high risk of disaster, we have (1) prepared a new geological map, and (2) conducted a single-station microtremor survey. We defined that three SW-NE trending active faults of the sinistral Genç Fault Zone are cutting through the District. We have obtained dominant period (T) as?<?0.2 s, the amplification factor (A) between 8 and 10, the average shear wave velocity for the first 30 m (Vs₃₀) as?<?300 m/s, and the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) as?>?20, in the central part of the Genç District. We have also prepared damage prediction maps for three bedrock acceleration values (0.25, 0.50, 0.75 g). Our earthquake damage prediction scenarios evidenced that as the bedrock acceleration values increase, the area of soil plastic behavior expands linearly. Here we report that if the average expected peak ground acceleration value (0.55–0.625 g) is exceeded during an earthquake, significant damage would be inevitable for the central part of the Genç District where most of the schools, mosques, public buildings, and hospitals are settled-down.

     

Source constraints for the young basaltic rocks from the northernmost end of Cappadocian region,Turkey: Melting evidence from peridotite and pyroxenite source domains

Widespread magmatic activity developed in the Middle Miocene in the Cappadocian Region of Central Anatolia in Turkey. Despite several previous studies that focus on the geochemical features of the magmatic rocks, the source components and development of melting conditions are still a matter of debate.Recent basaltic rocks from Karaburna and Gül?ehir (1228 and 96 Ka, respectively, Dogan, 2011) are considered as a part of the Central Anatolian Volcanic Province, situated at the northernmost end of the Cappadocian Region. These lavas have similar large ion lithophile (LIL) (except Rb) and high field strength (HFS) element abundances, however, Karaburna samples are more enriched in HFS elements, and both of the rocks suites reflect HFS depletions relative to the OIB signature.Karaburna and Gül?ehir basalts have low Nb/La (0.45–0.5; 0.35–0.5), Nb/Th (2.75–4.61; 1.26–2.85) values, respectively, suggesting contributions from crustal sources, whereas Zr/Ba ratios of these samples range between 0.32–0.93 and 0.4–0.88 and imply that these rocks appear to be derived from asthenospheric sources. These incompatible element ratios can be attributed to either different geochemical processes, or are related to melting from different source component(s).The ambient mantle source of the Cappadocian region appears to be consistent with spinel peridotite, but this domain is not solely satisfactory to represent the melting conditions in the light of new elemental data. Values of Tb/Yb(N) and Zn/Fe provide new constraints suggesting the magmas were generated from the asthenosphere. Tb/Yb(N) ratio separates garnet – spinel transition Tb/Yb_(N) (>1.8) and Zn/Fe ratio displays separation between the peridotite-derived (Zn/Fe <12) and pyroxenite-derived (13?20) melts.A melting model based on REE ratios and Zn/Fe, Co/Fe, Tb/Yb(N) values indicates that basaltic rocks were not derived from a single source component (peridotite). Instead, those values suggest substantial melting contributions from a pyroxenite source domain, which has not been discussed as a source component in previous studies. Melts, from both of the source domains, with the result of asthenospheric upwelling linked to the downgoing Aegean and Cyprean slabs, are distinct from the alkaline character frequently observed as the final products of recent volcanic activity in the Cappadocian region and also explains the different trace element variations observed in such a small scale.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Volcanic facies and mineral chemistry of Tertiary volcanics in the northern part of the Eastern Pontides,northeast Turkey: implications for pre-eruptive crystallization conditions and magma chamber processes

Tertiary volcanics in the northern zone of the Eastern Pontides are characterized by subaerial and shallow-subaqueous facieses, and are divided into three volcanic suites: Eocene aged (1) basalt-trachybasalt-basaltic trachyandesite (BTB) and (2) trachyte-trachyandesite (TT), and Miocene aged (3) basanite-tephrite (BT) suites. Clinopyroxene is a common phase in all three volcanic suites, and has different compositions with Mg# varying from 0.57 to 0.91 in BTB suite and 0.57–0.84 in TT suite to 0.65–0.90 in BT suite. Feldspars in all suites generally exhibit wide range of compositions from sanidine to albite or anorthite and have weak normal and reverse compositional zoning. Olivines in BTB and BT suites have Fo_60–92. Hornblendes in BTB, TT and BT suites are commonly magnesio-hastingsite and rare pargasite in composition (Mg#: 0.67–0.90). Brown mica is mainly phlogopite with Mg# ranging from 0.56 to 0.92 in the BTB suite, 0.59–0.84 in the TT suite, and 0.75–0.93 in the BT suite. Analcime is present only in the BT suite rocks. Fe–Ti oxides in all suites are mainly composed of magnetite and titanomagnetite. Textural petrographic and mineral chemical data suggest that magmas had undergone hydrous and anhydrous crystallizations in deep-, mid-, and shallow-crustal magma chambers. Clinopyroxene thermobarometric calculations show that Eocene magma chambers were characterized by temperature ranging from 1,100 to 1,244 °C and pressure ranging from 1.84 to 5.39 kbar. Similarly, the Miocene magma chambers were characterized by temperature ranging from 1,119 to 1,146 °C and pressure ranging from 4.23 to 4.93 kbar. Hornblende thermobarometry, oxygen fugacity, and hygrometer reveal that the crystallization temperature of Eocene volcanics range from 956 to 959 °C at pressure ranging from 6.49 to 6.52 kbar. Eocene volcanics were characterized by water content ranging from 7.83 to 8.57 wt.% and oxygen fugacity of 10^?9.36 to 10^?9.46 (ΔNNO+2). Miocene volcanics had crystallization temperature ranging from 970 to 978 °C at pressure ranging from 8.70 to 9.00 kbar with water content ranging from 8.04 to 8.64 wt.% and oxygen fugacity ranging from 10^?8.75 to 10^?8.87 (ΔNNO+2). Brown mica thermobarometric data show that Eocene volcanics were characterized by relatively high oxygen fugacity varying from 10^-10.32 to 10^-12.37 (HM) at temperature ranging from 858 to 953 °C and pressure ranging from 1.08 to 1.41 kbar. Miocene volcanics were crystallized at highly oxidized conditions, which are characterized by high oxygen fugacity of 10^?12.0 (HM) at temperature of 875 °C and pressure of 2.09 kbar. The wide range of obtained temperatures for clinopyroxenes of the suites denotes that the equilibration of clinopyroxene crystals initiates from depth until close to the surface before magma eruption. The compositional variations, resorbed core and reverse zoning patterns in clinopyroxene phenocrysts, as well as variable pressures of crystallization, further indicate that the magmas that formed the suites were polybaric in origins and were composite products of more than one petrogenetic stage. The observed range of phenocryst assemblage and different compositional trends possibly originated from fractionation of magmas with different initial water contents under variable pressures of crystallization. The repeated occurrence of magmas from different suites during a single period of activity suggests that the magmatic system consists of several conduit systems and that magma reservoirs are dispersed at different levels of crustal magma chambers.     

Field evidences of secondary surface ruptures occurred during the 20 February 1956 Eskişehir earthquake in the NW Anatolia

Surface rupture and source fault of the 20 February 1956 Eskişehir earthquake have been a matter of debate that potentially contributes towards the understanding of the active deformation and seismic risk in the highly populated NW Anatolia. Field observations on the two fault segments (namely Kavacık and Uludere faults) in the north of the Eskişehir graben revealed evidences of co-seismic surface rupture and mass movements during the Eskişehir earthquake. Surface rupture was observed as a 2.5m wide, a 100m long and ca. 20 cm deep asymmetric depression in the Gümüşlü valley, 2 km east of the Uludere village. A trench dug on this depression confirms a prominent high-angle south dipping fault (dominantly left lateral strike slip) and two faint north-dipping antithetics as clear noticeable shear zones in organic-rich thick soil. Mass failures are particularly observed in spring depressions filled with loose torrent and carbonaceous material in front of the fault scarp. Some rock slides of several tens of meters in size that obviously require significantly high ground shaking were also developed on steep fault scarps. The orientation of the principal stress tensor as deduced from the surface rupture of the Eskişehir earthquake displays clear inconsistency with the geometry of prominent faults in the area. We concluded that this disagreement may be explained by a curved surface rupture. The western and eastern tips of this rupture are EW trending and the probable NW-running part in the middle would correspond to the bounding zone between two right-stepping faults.     

Environmental pulmonary health problems related to mineral dusts: Examples from central Anatolia, Turkey

There are a number of benign disorders including pleural thickening (PT), calcified pleural plaques (CPP), and malignant diseases such as malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) in central Anatolia. Earlier studies suggested tremolite was the main cause, and there was no explanation why some of the population did not have malignant cases, and plaques were by far the most frequent manifestation of asbestos-induced injury. In this study, geological, mineralogical and environmental data were evaluated. While the prolonged continuous exposure to high or low doses of long (8-30 µm) and thin (less than 0.25 µm) mixed fibers such as chrysolite, and/or anthophyllite or tremolite, and also silica particles may be the cause of MPM in central Anatolia, two different reasons for the CPP and PT are suggested. The first one is short (less than 8 µm) and thin mixed-type mineral fibers. The second reason is low doses of long, but thick, splintery tremolite fibers.