Seismic analysis of the Asinelli Tower and earthquakes in Bologna

The existence of a valuable historical heritage of the Medieval age in Bologna has motivated a deeper study on the seismic behaviour of the Asinelli Tower, which, beyond being the town symbol, has a structural configuration prone to seismic damage. Accordingly, in the present paper, the seismicity of Bologna is reviewed and a synthesis of the damage observed in the urban area, based on an accurate historical research, is given, with the objective of evaluating the behavior of the Asinelli Tower within the framework of the effects localized in the municipality. An assessment of the tower's stability with respect to compatible seismic events, at least qualitatively, with the region seismicity is then carried out by means of a non-linear dynamic analysis on a simplified model.     

A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna volcano

A singularly complete record exists for the eruptive activity of Etna volcano. The time series of occurrence of flank eruptions in the period 1600–1980, in which the record is presumably complete, is found to follow a stationary Poisson process. A revision of the available data shows that eruption durations are rather well correlated with the estimates of the volume of lava flows. This implies that the magnitude of an eruption can be defined directly by its duration. Extreme value statistics are then applied to the time series, using duration as a dependent variable. The probability of occurrence of a very long (300 days) eruption is greater than 50% only in time intervals of the order of 50 years. The correlation found between duration and total output also allows estimation of the probability of occurrence of a major event which exceeds a given duration and total flow of lava. The composite probabilities do not differ considerably from the pure ones. Paralleling a well established application to seismic events, extreme value theory can be profitably used in volcanic risk estimates, provided that appropriate account is also taken of all other variables.     

On the spatio-temporal distribution of M 7.0+ worldwide seismicity with a non-parametric statistics

The aim of this paper is to provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanism, through the usage of a non-parametric statistics that leads up to the empirical estimation of the hazard function. The results indicate that the most characterizing temporal feature for large (M 7.0+) worldwide shallow earthquake occurrence is a clustering lasting few years, indicating that the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher immediately after the occurrence of an event. After that, the process becomes almost time independent, as in a Poisson process. Remarkably, this time clustering is very similar to what previously found for different spatio-magnitude windows, and it does not seem to depend on the tectonic style of the region. This may support the hypothesis of an universal law for earthquake occurrence.     

Modelling the cosmological co-evolution of supermassive black holes and galaxies – I. BH scaling relations and the AGN luminosity function

We model the cosmological co-evolution of galaxies and their central supermassive black holes (BHs) within a semi-analytical framework developed on the outputs of the Millennium Simulation. This model, described in detail by Croton et al. and De Lucia and Blaizot, introduces a 'radio mode' feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) at the centre of X-ray emitting atmospheres in galaxy groups and clusters. Thanks to this mechanism, the model can simultaneously explain: (i) the low observed mass dropout rate in cooling flows; (ii) the exponential cut-off in the bright end of the galaxy luminosity function and (iii) the bulge-dominated morphologies and old stellar ages of the most massive galaxies in clusters. This paper is the first of a series in which we investigate how well this model can also reproduce the physical properties of BHs and AGN. Here we analyse the scaling relations, the fundamental plane and the mass function of BHs, and compare them with the most recent observational data. Moreover, we extend the semi-analytic model to follow the evolution of the BH mass accretion and its conversion into radiation, and compare the derived AGN bolometric luminosity function with the observed one. While we find for the most part a very good agreement between predicted and observed BH properties, the semi-analytic model underestimates the number density of luminous AGN at high redshifts, independently of the adopted Eddington factor and accretion efficiency. However, an agreement with the observations is possible within the framework of our model, provided it is assumed that the cold gas fraction accreted by BHs at high redshifts is larger than at low redshifts.     

Cyclic shear-compression tests on masonry walls strengthened with alternative configurations of CFRP strips

This work reports the results of an experimental programme aimed at investigating the in-plane behaviour of clay-brick masonry walls externally strengthened by carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips. Particularly, four different geometrical layouts were considered for the CFRP strips, though keeping unchanged the quantity of composites employed in each wall. Firstly, a preliminary experimental work was carried out on samples of the constitutive materials for quantifying their key mechanical properties and evaluating the bond behaviour of FRP strips on the masonry substrates. Then, eleven cyclic shear-compression tests were performed to observe the response of strengthened walls and the influence of the strengthening layouts under investigation. The proposed experimental report is intended as a contribution to the current state of knowledge about the behaviour of FRP-strengthened masonry walls: it is available to assess the accuracy and possibly improve the predictive capacity of design-oriented capacity models. Finally, the comparison of the reported experimental results with the predictions obtained by applying the analytical relationships proposed by a recently issued guideline for FRP strengthening of masonry structures is proposed.     

Detecting short-term evolution of Etnean scoria cones: a LIDAR-based approach

The 2001 and 2002–2003 flank eruptions on Mount Etna (Italy) were characterized by intense explosive activity which led to the formation of two large monogenetic scoria cones (one from each eruption) on the upper southern flank of the volcano. Continuous monitoring of Etna, especially during flank eruptions, has provided detailed information on the growth of these cones. They differ in genesis, shape, and size. A set of high resolution (1 m) digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data collected during four different surveys (2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007) has been used to map morphology and to extract the morphometric parameters of the scoria cones. By comparing LIDAR-derived DEMs with a pre-eruption (1998) 10 m DEM, the volume of the two scoria cones was calculated for the first time. Comparison of the LIDAR-derived DEMs revealed in unprecedented detail morphological changes during scoria cone degradation. In particular, the morphologically more exposed and structurally weaker 2002–2003 cone was eroded rapidly during the first few years after its emplacement mainly due to gravitational instability of slopes and wind erosion.     

THE MARBLE BEACHES OF TUSCANY*

ABSTRACT. Beach‐nourishment operations designed to replace sediment lost through erosion change the identity and meaning of coastal landscapes. Seven beaches in Tuscany, nourished with marble‐quarry waste, reveal how an industrial byproduct is naturalized by particle rounding and sorting and can become a positive symbol of human‐altered nature. The marble was placed on formerly sandy beaches, resulting in different grain size and color of sediments, beach morphology, and value for human use. The abrasion rate of marble makes the nourished beaches unsatisfactory when viewed solely as protection structures, but the rapid particle rounding and aesthetic appeal of marble increase the acceptability of the beaches for recreation.     

A full-sky prediction of the Sunyaev–Zeldovich effect from diffuse hot gas in the local universe and the upper limit from the WMAP data

We use the Point Source Catalogue Redshift Survey galaxy redshift catalogue combined with constrained simulations based on the IRAS 1.2-Jy galaxy density field to estimate the contribution of hot gas in the local universe to the Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) effect on a large scale. We produce a full-sky healpix map predicting the SZ effect from clusters as well as diffuse hot gas within  80  h ⁻¹ Mpc  . Performing cross-correlation tests between this map and the WMAP data in pixel, harmonic and wavelet space we can put an upper limit on the effect. We conclude that the SZ effect from diffuse gas in the local universe cannot be detected in current cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and is not a large-scale contaminating factor  (ℓ < 60)  in studies of CMB angular anisotropies. We derive an upper limit for the mean temperature decrement of  Δ T < 0.33 μK  at the 2σ confidence level for the 61-GHz frequency channel. However, for future high-sensitivity experiments observing at a wider range of frequencies, the predicted large-scale SZ effect could be of importance.