Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

Shallow earthquakes in a viscoelastic shear zone with depth-dependent friction and rheology

Summary. Most crustal earthquakes of the world are observed to occur within a seismogenic layer which extends from the Earth's surface to a depth of a few tens of kilometres at most. A model is proposed in which the shear zone along a transcurrent plate margin is represented as a viscoelastic medium with depth-dependent power-law rheology. A frictional resistance linearly increasing with depth is assumed on a vertical transcurrent fault within the shear zone. Such a model is able to reproduce a continuous transition from the brittle behaviour of the upper crust to the ductile behaviour at depth. Assuming that the shear zone is subjected to a constant strain rate from the opposite motions of the two adjacent plates, it is found that there exists a maximum depth H below which tectonic stress can never reach the frictional threshold: this may be identified as the maximum depth of earthquake nucleation. The value of H is consistent with observations for plausible values of the model parameters. The stress evolution in the shear zone is calculated in the linear approximation of the constitutive equation. A change in rigidity with depth, which is also introduced in the model, may reproduce the high vertical gradient of shear stress, which has been measured across the San Andreas fault, and the fact that most earthquakes are nucleated at some depth in the seismogenic layer. A crack which drops the ambient stress to the dynamic frictional level is then introduced in the model. To this aim, a crack solution is employed without a stress singularity at its edges, which is compatible with a frictional stress threshold criterion for fracture. A constraint on the vertical friction gradient is obtained if such cracks are assumed to be entirely confined within the seismogenic layer.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Identification of calanco,a badland landform in the northern Apennines,Italy

Calanco (plural, calanchi) is a term widely used in the northern Apennines, Italy, to define a type of badland formed in clayey bedrock. However, no precise geomorphological definition of calanco has been established and a variety of map symbols are used to indicate the presence of calanco landforms. With the aim of developing an improved approach to identifying calanchi, a group of experienced surveyors identified 24 catchments with calanco characteristics among 67 catchments located between Bologna and Faenza in the northern Apennines. The morphology of each catchment was classified using traditional quantitative geomorphic approaches including fieldwork, map interpretation, hypsometric curve construction and computation of the annual sediment yield. Consideration of the parameters produced by these approaches indicated that none was capable of representing the presence of calanchi unequivocally and the basins were grouped into five classes on the basis of number and type of calanco criteria that they met. A characteristic of calanchi that is evident on topographic maps is crenulation of the contour lines and in this study a new topographic parameter was developed to represent the degree of contour crenulation. This parameter, LO/LF, is defined as the ratio of the actual length of a contour line (LO) to the length of the same line smoothed by an algorithm based on a moving average (LF). Calculated values of LO/LF ranged from 1·05 to 1·38. To test whether high values of the contour crenulation parameter were associated with calanchi, LO/LF values were added to other criteria for the five classes of catchment. Class 1 catchments, consisting of 14 of the 24 calanchi catchments identified in the field, displayed all of the criteria defining calanchi, and were characterized by the highest values of LO/LF (mean value 1·27 ± 0·15). It is proposed, therefore, that the contour crenulation ratio (LO/LF) may be useful in identifying the calanco landform. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Na, Mg, Ni and Cs distribution and speciation after long-term alteration of a simulated nuclear waste glass: A micro-XAS/XRF/XRD and wet chemical study

Microscopic distribution and speciation of Na, Mg, Ni and Cs in a simulated (inactive) nuclear waste glass were studied using micro X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) and micro X-ray absorption spectroscopy (μ-XAS), after aqueous leaching during 12 years at 90 °C. Na and Mg are major constituents of the glass that can be used to determine the progress of the glass corrosion process and the nature of secondary alteration phases. Ni and Cs represent dose determining long-lived radionuclides (⁵⁹Ni, ¹³⁵Cs) in vitrified nuclear waste.The Na-Mg μ-XRF maps revealed that the core regions of the glass fragments are apparently unaltered and compositionally homogeneous, whereas rims and interstitial spaces are enriched with Mg-rich smectite formed during the leaching process. The micro X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) spectra collected at the Mg K-edge in the altered zones show three sharp resonances typical for crystalline Mg-silicates. These resonances are distinctive of Mg occupying undistorted octahedral positions. In contrast, the μ-XANES spectra collected in the core zones of the glass fragments lack this resonance pattern and are identical to the spectra measured on the pristine (unleached) MW glass.Micro extended X-ray absorption fine structure (μ-EXAFS) and μ-XANES analyses at the Ni K-edge revealed three distinct Ni(II) species: (a) Ni uniformly distributed in the glass matrix, (b) micro-inclusions with high Ni concentrations and (c) Ni associated to the Mg-clay. The comparison with reference spectra of unleached MW and other Ni-bearing silicate glasses indicated that species (a) represents the original coordinative environment of Ni in the glass. The μ-EXAFS analyses revealed that species (b) is structural Ni in trevorite (NiFe₂O₄), which probably formed through unmixing processes during the cooling of the glass melt. The μ-EXAFS of species (c) could be successfully modeled assuming specific adsorption or incorporation of Ni into the lattice of trioctahedral Mg-clay minerals. Alternative models assuming other elements (Ni, Al, Fe) in addition to Mg in the second shell could not be fitted successfully.Aqueous concentration data were used to calculate the speciation of the leaching solutions. Saturation index (SI) calculations indicate undersaturation with respect to NiCO₃ and NiSO₄·7H₂O, but oversaturation with respect to β-Ni(OH)₂. The latter result is probably due to the omission of Ni borate and Ni silicate complexes in the speciation calculations, for which formation constants are not available. With the help of estimation techniques, we could infer that such complexes would dominate the Ni speciation and consequently reduce the SI below the saturation of β-Ni(OH)₂.The μ-XRF maps show that Cs is uniformly distributed in the MW glass, since no region with high Cs concentration could be detected. The Cs L_III-edge μ-XAS spectra were all very similar independently of the degree of alteration, indicating similar coordination environments of Cs in the core regions of the glass as well as in the secondary clays. These spectra largely differ from that measured for pollucite (a potential secondary Cs-phase in altered glasses) implying that the coordination environments of Cs in the MW glass and in pollucite are fundamentally different.The present study shows that μ-XRF and μ-XAS are essential tools in determining the fate and the retention mechanisms of radionuclides released from nuclear waste during aqueous alteration. Our spectroscopic analyses allowed us to exclude formation of specific Ni and Cs secondary solids (e.g. nepouite, β-Ni(OH)₂, pollucite) during the aqueous alteration. Ni and Cs are instead distributed as trace elements in the alteration phases formed by major elements during the leaching process. Our results imply that solid solution and/or adsorption equilibria, rather than pure phase solubility equilibria, are the adequate chemical models to determine Ni and Cs aqueous concentrations in performance assessments for radioactive waste repositories.     

Land use changes,torrent control works and sediment mining: effects on channel morphology and sediment flux,case study of the Reno River (Northern Italy)

As with most Italian rivers, the Reno River has a long history of human modification, related also to morphological changes of the lower Po River since Roman times, but in the last decades, significant land use changes in the headwaters, dam construction, torrent control works and extensive bed material mining have caused important channel morphology and sediment budget changes. In this paper, two main types of channel adjustment, riverbed incision and channel narrowing, are analysed. Riverbed degradation is discussed by comparing four different longitudinal profiles surveyed in 1928, 1951, 1970 and 1998 in the 120 km long reach upstream of the outlet. The analysis of channel narrowing is carried out by comparing a number of cross‐sections surveyed in different years across the same downstream reach. Field sediment transport measurements of seven major floods that occurred between 2003 and 2006 are compared with the bedload transport rates predicted by the most renowned equations. The current low bedload yield is discussed in terms of sediment supply limited conditions due to land use changes, erosion‐control works and extensive and out of control bed material mining that have affected the Reno during the last decades. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rip current hazard assessment on a sandy beach in Liguria,NW Mediterranean

Natural Hazards - Rip currents are one of the most significant environmental hazards for beachgoers and are of interest to coastal scientists. Several studies have been conducted to understand rip...     

Primordial non-Gaussianities in the intergalactic medium

We present results from the first high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations of non-Gaussian cosmological models. We focus on the statistical properties of the transmitted Lyman-α flux in the high-redshift intergalactic medium. Imprints of non-Gaussianity are present and are larger at high redshifts. Differences larger than 20 per cent at   z > 3  in the flux probability distribution function for high-transmissivity regions (voids) are expected for values of the non-linearity parameter   f _NL=±100  when compared to a standard Λ cold dark matter cosmology with   f _NL= 0  . We also investigate the one-dimensional flux bispectrum: at the largest scales (corresponding to tens of Mpc), we expect deviations in the flux bispectrum up to 20 per cent at   z ∼ 4  (for   f _NL=±100  ), significantly larger than deviations of ∼3 per cent in the flux power spectrum. We briefly discuss possible systematic errors that can contaminate the signal. Although challenging, a detection of non-Gaussianities in the interesting regime of scales and redshifts probed by the Lyman-α forest could be possible with future data sets.