Numerical simulation of the 30–45 ka debris avalanche flow of Montagne Pelée volcano,Martinique: from volcano flank collapse to submarine emplacement

Natural Hazards - In November 2015, China government announced that the national carbon emissions trading market is expected to start in 2017. Carbon emission trading system is a raising concern...     

Gravimetric studies of Taal Volcano,philippines

Taal Volcano is peculiar in its violent explosivity in spite of its low altitude. The surrounding topographies suggest that the origin of Taal Volcano is either a caldera or a graben structure. To confirm the caldera origin one must search for a vast quantity of caldera ejecta balancing with the depression. As a first step, a gravity survey was carried out on and around Taal Volcano, and high gravity anomalies were lound on Volcano Island. The distribution of the gravities may suggest a graben structure overlying a denser layer of igneous material.     

Kriging of water levels in the Souss aquifer,Morocco

Universal kriging is applied to water table data from the Souss aquifer in central Morocco. The procedure accounts for the spatial variability of the phenomenon to be mapped. With the use of measured elevations of the water table, an experimental variogram is constructed that characterizes the spatial variability of the measured water levels. Spherical and Gaussian variogram models are alternatively used to fit the experimental variogram. The models are used to develop contour maps of water table elevations and corresponding estimation variances. The estimation variances express the reliability of the kriged water table elevation maps. Universal kriging also provides a contour map of the expected elevation of the water table (drift). The differences between the expected and measured water table elevations are called residuals from the drift. Residuals from the drift are compared with residuals obtained by more traditional least-squares analysis.     

Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Image analysis applied to quantitative evaluation of chromatic impact generated by open-pit quarries and mines

One of the most important environmental impacts resulting from opencast mining, and especially quarries, is the visual impact. Evaluation of this impact considers two aspects: first, the area occupied by the quarry as seen by an observer from a specific place, and, second, the chromatic contrast existing between landscape and exploitation. In this study we develop a methodology to assess the chromatic impact in an objective and comparable form. To assess this impact we developed a method based on image analysis that allows us to obtain from a picture or image its equivalent as a function of chromatic impact, according to the sensibility of the human eye to different wavelengths. The methodology was applied to the Martinenca limestone quarry (Alcanar, Tarragona) and to Cerro Kori Kollo mine, La Joya district (Bolivia).     

Salt damage and microclimate in the Postumius Tomb, Roman Necropolis of Carmona, Spain

The necropolis of Carmona (Seville, Spain) is one of the most significant Roman burial sites in southern Spain used during the first and second centuries ad. Of its more than 600 tombs, the Postumius Tomb is one of the best examples of a tomb affected by severe salt damage. To define safe microclimatic conditions for its conservation, environmental parameters were recorded from June 2007 to April 2009, both inside and outside the tomb, and mineralogical, textural, petrophysical, and durability characterization studies of the host-rock were made. Experimental tests revealed a high susceptibility to salt deterioration of a host-rock (calcarenite) with low mechanical properties and a complex porous medium that favors salt weathering, water condensation, and capillary rise. The analysis of the weathered material showed the presence chiefly of gypsum (CaSO₄·2H₂O), thenardite (Na₂SO₄) and halite (NaCl) in the tomb of Postumius, with alteration that was more intensive in spring and autumn, and less so during summer months. Salt damage activity was calculated by quantifying the number of transitions of crystallization–dissolution of saline phases. The calculated seasonality for water condensation and salt damage is coeval. The host-rock alteration is in accord with the estimated salt decay, and was more intensive in spring and autumn and less so during summer. The seasonality of halite transitions is similar to that of the sodium sulfate system, which suggests that salt weathering is produced by the two types of salts. By combining different methodological approaches (pore structure, water condensation, salt and environmental conditions), it is possible to explain why salt crystallization occurs in a tomb with hygrometric conditions that are not suitable for this process to occur. These methodological approaches are also used to other rock-decaying processes, such as the development of microorganisms, clay swelling and calcite dissolution by NaCl- and CO₂-rich pore waters, and can be used to predict safe threshold microclimatic conditions that minimize all rock-decaying processes.     

Territorial dynamics and boundary effects in a protected area of the Central Iberian Peninsula

We analysed the main changes in land use over a 21 year period within the perimeter of a Protected Natural Area (PNA) and outside this perimeter. The area is characterised by its Mediterranean mid-mountain landscape and its piedmont, which extends almost as far as the city of Madrid. We employed cartography of land use and plant formation from 1980 and 2001. We identified land uses and their changes in this time period in order to determine the principal territorial dynamics (scrub encroachment, urban development, forest encroachment, new pastures and new crops). Subsequently, we performed a comparative analysis between the changes inside and those outside the protected area. The results show that there is a boundary effect between the protected area and the surrounding zone, which is more notable in the areas where urban development has intensified. This kind of research serves to establish whether or not a PNA contributes to protecting and conserving natural resources as compared to what occurs in the unprotected surrounding area, which tends to be subjected to more aggressive dynamics.     

A modified DRASTIC model for Siting Confined Animal Feeding Operations in Williams County,Ohio, USA

Three of DRASTIC’s parameters (Depth to Water, Soil Media, and Topography) were modified and another parameter was added (land use/land cover) to the model to determine the potential impact on groundwater from Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO) manure lagoon settings and manure application as fertilizer. Williams County is a mostly agricultural county located in northwest Ohio, USA. It currently has three CAFOs, all dairy, with the possibility of the construction of a multi-million chicken egg CAFO in the near future. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was utilized to modify the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) DRASTIC map for the county to fully assess the county-wide pollution potential of CAFOs. The CAFO DRASTIC map indicates that almost half of Williams County has elevated groundwater pollution potential. The rest of the county, primarily the southeast corner, has lower CAFO groundwater pollution potential. Future CAFO development within the county should focus on the southeastern portion of the county where the groundwater table is deeper, and the aquifer is composed of shale substrate with low hydraulic conductivity. The CAFO DRASTIC results are intended to be used as a screening tool and are not to replace site-specific hydrogeologic investigations.     

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.