Time-dependent reliability analysis of unsaturated slopes under rapid drawdown with intelligent surrogate models

Acta Geotechnica - Slope stability in reservoirs depends on time-dependent triggering factors such as fluctuations of the groundwater level and precipitation. This paper assesses the stability of...     

Quiescent times in gamma-ray bursts – I. An observed correlation between the durations of subsequent emission episodes

Although more than 2000 astronomical gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been detected, the precise progenitor responsible for these events is unknown. The temporal phenomenology observed in GRBs can significantly constrain the different models. Here we analyse the time histories of a sample of bright, long GRBs, searching for the ones exhibiting relatively long (more than 5 per cent of the total burst duration) 'quiescent times', defined as the intervals between adjacent episodes of emission during which the gamma-ray count rate drops to the background level. We find a quantitative relation between the duration of an emission episode and the quiescent time elapsed since the previous episode. We suggest here that the mechanism responsible for the extraction and the dissipation of energy has to take place in a metastable configuration, such that the longer the accumulation period, the higher the stored energy available for the next emission episode.     

Chandra unveils a binary active galactic nucleus in Mrk 463

We analyse Chandra , XMM–Newton and Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) data of the double-nucleus Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxy (ULIRG), Mrk 463. The Chandra detection of two luminous  ( L _2–10 keV= 1.5 × 10⁴³  and  3.8 × 10⁴² erg cm⁻² s⁻¹)  , unresolved nuclei in Mrk 463 indicates that this galaxy hosts a binary active galactic nucleus (AGN), with a projected separation of ≃3.8 kpc (  3.83 ± 0.01  arcsec). While the East nucleus was already known to be a type 2 Seyfert (and this is further confirmed by our Chandra detection of a neutral iron line), this is the first unambiguous evidence in favour of the AGN nature of the West nucleus. Mrk 463 is therefore the clearest case so far for a binary AGN, after NGC 6240.     

Reflections on reflexions – II. Effects of light echoes on the luminosity and spectra of Type Ia supernovae

In this paper, we present and discuss the effects of scattered light echoes (LEs) on the luminosity and spectral appearance of Type Ia supernovae (SNe). After introducing the basic concept of LE spectral synthesis by means of LE models and real observations, we investigate the deviations from pure SN spectra, light and colour curves, the signatures that witness the presence of an LE and the possible inferences on the extinction law. The effects on the photometric parameters and spectral features are also discussed. In particular, for the case of circumstellar dust, LEs are found to introduce an apparent relation between the post-maximum decline rate and the absolute luminosity, which is most likely going to affect the well-known Pskowski–Phillips relation.     

Interplay between stress permutations and overpressure to cause strike‐slip faulting during tectonic inversion

Field data from an orogenic foreland and an orogenic belt (the Mesozoic rocks of southern England and the Umbria‐Marche Apennines of Italy respectively) indicate the following. Firstly, stress evolution during the tectonic cycle, between maximum compressive stress (σ₁) being vertical during extension and least compressive stress (σ₃) being vertical during contraction, can involve phases when the intermediate compressive stress (σ₂) is vertical, promoting strike‐slip deformation. Secondly, variations in the relative magnitudes of the stress axes are caused by variations in overburden and tectonic forces. Thirdly, overpressure can develop because of compaction during burial, and, as overburden is reduced during uplift and erosion, the vertical stress (σ_V) reduces but fluid pressure (P_f) remains approximately constant. Brittle deformation, including transient strike‐slip faults, reverse‐reactivated normal faults and normal‐reactivated thrusts, is preferentially developed in overpressured areas because high P_f promotes faulting.     

Polynomial chaos expansion for global sensitivity analysis applied to a model of radionuclide migration in a randomly heterogeneous aquifer

We perform global sensitivity analysis (GSA) through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of radionuclide concentration at a given control location in a heterogeneous aquifer, following a release from a near surface repository of radioactive waste. The aquifer hydraulic conductivity is modeled as a stationary stochastic process in space. We examine the uncertainty in the first two (ensemble) moments of the peak concentration, as a consequence of incomplete knowledge of (a) the parameters characterizing the variogram of hydraulic conductivity, (b) the partition coefficient associated with the migrating radionuclide, and (c) dispersivity parameters at the scale of interest. These quantities are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a numerical Monte Carlo framework. This entails solving groundwater flow and transport processes within an ensemble of hydraulic conductivity realizations generated upon sampling the space of the considered random variables. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures to provide an estimate of the role of uncertain parameters on the (ensemble) target moments. Calculation of the indices is performed by employing PCE as a surrogate model of the migration process to reduce the computational burden. We show that the proposed methodology (a) allows identifying the influence of uncertain parameters on key statistical moments of the peak concentration (b) enables extending the number of Monte Carlo iterations to attain convergence of the (ensemble) target moments, and (c) leads to considerable saving of computational time while keeping acceptable accuracy.     

Pattern of deformation around the central Aeolian Islands: evidence from multichannel seismics and GPS data

The tectonics of the central Aeolian Islands, which are located within the Tyrrhenian backarc basin, has been investigated through a marine seismic reflection survey. We find that compressional structures dominate around the islands, whereas extensional faults occur only to the north of Salina and Filicudi, towards the Marsili basin. This pattern of deformation, although different from previously reported, is in agreement with the strain field and stress regime obtained from GPS measurements and seismological data. Age constraints suggest that contractional deformation was active since middle Pleistocene, being coeval with the building of the volcanic edifices of the Aeolian Islands, and is superimposed on pre‐existing extensional deformation. Compressional and extensional regimes, therefore, can coexist within a backarc setting. Seismic profiles show that the Tindari‐Letojanni fault, considered as a major tectonic element, does not extend to the north towards the island of Vulcano as a throughgoing fault; rather, deformation is accommodated in a broader belt displaying greater structural complexity.