An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Studying the Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity in Reservoir Permeability on CO2 Sequestration

A new uncertainty quantification framework is adopted for carbon sequestration to evaluate the effect of spatial heterogeneity of reservoir permeability on CO₂ migration. Sequential Gaussian simulation is used to generate multiple realizations of permeability fields with various spatial statistical attributes. In order to deal with the computational difficulties, the following ideas/approaches are integrated. First, different efficient sampling approaches (probabilistic collocation, quasi-Monte Carlo, and adaptive sampling) are used to reduce the number of forward calculations, explore effectively the parameter space, and quantify the input uncertainty. Second, a scalable numerical simulator, extreme-scale Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases, is adopted as the forward modeling simulator for CO₂ migration. The framework has the capability to quantify input uncertainty, generate exploratory samples effectively, perform scalable numerical simulations, visualize output uncertainty, and evaluate input-output relationships. The framework is demonstrated with a given CO₂ injection scenario in heterogeneous sandstone reservoirs. Results show that geostatistical parameters for permeability have different impacts on CO₂ plume radius: the mean parameter has positive effects at the top layers, but affects the bottom layers negatively. The variance generally has a positive effect on the plume radius at all layers, particularly at middle layers, where the transport of CO₂ is highly influenced by the subsurface heterogeneity structure. The anisotropy ratio has weak impacts on the plume radius, but affects the shape of the CO₂ plume.     

Three‐dimensional flow structure and patterns of bed shear stress in an evolving compound meander bend

Compound meander bends with multiple lobes of maximum curvature are common in actively evolving lowland rivers. Interaction among spatial patterns of mean flow, turbulence, bed morphology, bank failures and channel migration in compound bends is poorly understood. In this paper, acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements of the three‐dimensional (3D) flow velocities in a compound bend are examined to evaluate the influence of channel curvature and hydrologic variability on the structure of flow within the bend. Flow structure at various flow stages is related to changes in bed morphology over the study timeframe. Increases in local curvature within the upstream lobe of the bend reduce outer bank velocities at morphologically significant flows, creating a region that protects the bank from high momentum flow and high bed shear stresses. The dimensionless radius of curvature in the upstream lobe is one‐third less than that of the downstream lobe, with average bank erosion rates less than half of the erosion rates for the downstream lobe. Higher bank erosion rates within the downstream lobe correspond to the shift in a core of high velocity and bed shear stresses toward the outer bank as flow moves through the two lobes. These erosion patterns provide a mechanism for continued migration of the downstream lobe in the near future. Bed material size distributions within the bend correspond to spatial patterns of bed shear stress magnitudes, indicating that bed material sorting within the bend is governed by bed shear stress. Results suggest that patterns of flow, sediment entrainment, and planform evolution in compound meander bends are more complex than in simple meander bends. Moreover, interactions among local influences on the flow, such as woody debris, local topographic steering, and locally high curvature, tend to cause compound bends to evolve toward increasing planform complexity over time rather than stable configurations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bedload hysteresis in a glacier‐fed mountain river

Sediment transport during flood events often reveals hysteretic patterns because flow discharge can peak before (counterclockwise hysteresis) or after (clockwise hysteresis) the peak of bedload. Hysteresis in sediment transport has been used in the literature to infer the degree of sediment availability. Counterclockwise and clockwise hysteresis have been in fact interpreted as limited and unlimited sediment supply conditions, respectively. Hysteresis has been mainly explored for the case of suspended sediment transport, but it was rarely reported for bedload transport in mountain streams. This work focuses on the temporal variability of bedload transport in an alpine catchment (Saldur basin, 18.6 km², Italian Alps) where bedload transport was monitored by means of an acoustic pipe sensor which detects the acoustic vibrations induced by particles hitting a 0.5m‐long steel pipe. Runoff dynamics are dominated by snowmelt in late spring/early summer, mostly by glacier melt in late summer/early autumn, and by a combination of the snow and glacier melt in mid‐summer. The results indicate that hysteretic patterns during daily discharge fluctuations are predominantly clockwise during the snowmelt period, likely due to the ready availability of unpacked sediments within the channel or through bank erosion in the lower part of the basin. On the contrary, counterclockwise hysteresis tend to be more frequent during late glacier melting period, possibly due to the time lag needed for sediment provided by the glacial and peri‐glacial area to be transported to the monitoring section. However, intense rainfall events occurring during the glacier melt period generated predominantly clockwise hysteresis, thus indicating the activation of different sediment sources. These results indicate that runoff generation processes play a crucial role on sediment supply and temporal availability in mountain streams. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Partitioning geochemistry of arsenic and antimony,El Tatio Geyser Field,Chile

The abundance of As and Sb in aqueous, mineral and biological reservoirs was examined at El Tatio Geyser Field, a unique hydrothermal basin located in the Atacama Desert region of Chile. Here the concentration of total As and Sb in hydrothermal springs and discharge streams are the highest reported for a natural surface water, and the geyser basin represents a significant source of toxic elements for downstream users across Region II, Chile. The geyser waters are near neutral Na:Cl type with ∼0.45 and 0.021 mmol L⁻¹ total As and Sb, respectively, primarily in the reduced (III) redox state at the discharge with progressive oxidation downstream. The ferric oxyhydroxides associated with the microbial mats and some mineral precipitates accumulate substantial As that was identified as arsenate by XAS analysis (>10 wt% in the mats). This As is easily mobilized by anion exchange or mild dissolution of the HFO, and the ubiquitous microbial mats represent a significant reservoir of As in this system. Antimony, in contrast, is not associated with the mineral ferric oxides or the biomats, but is substantially enriched in the silica matrix of the geyserite precipitates, up to 2 wt% as Sb₂O₃. Understanding the mobility and partitioning behavior of these metalloids is critical for understanding their eventual impact on regional water management.     

Suitability of CLIGEN precipitation estimates based on an updated database and their impacts on urban runoff: a case study of the Great Lakes Region,USA

ABSTRACT

Weather generators rely on historical meteorological records to simulate time series of synthetic weather sequences, the quality of which has direct influence on model applications. The climate generator CLIGEN’s database has recently been updated to comprise consistent historical records from 1974 to 2013 (updated CLIGEN database, UCD) compared to the current database in which records are of different lengths. In this study, CLIGEN’s performance in estimating precipitation using UCD (eight stations) and the subsequent impact on urban runoff simulations (371 stations) were evaluated in the Great Lakes Region, USA. Generally, UCD-based precipitation could replicate observed daily precipitation up to the 99.5th percentile, but maximum precipitation was underestimated. Results from the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment model using UCD-based precipitation showed about 0.57 billion cubic meters more (14.9%) average annual runoff being simulated compared with simulations based on the current CLIGEN database. Overall, CLIGEN with the updated database was found suitable for providing precipitation estimates and for use with modeling urban runoff or urbanization effects.     

Biogeochemistry and carbon mass balance of a coccolithophore bloom in the northern Bay of Biscay (June 2006)

Primary production (PP), calcification (CAL), bacterial production (BP) and dark community respiration (DCR) were measured along with a set of various biogeochemical variables, in early June 2006, at several stations at the shelf break of the northern Bay of Biscay. The cruise was carried out after the main spring diatom bloom that, based on the analysis of a time-series of remotely sensed chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), peaked in mid-April. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) indicated the occurrence of enhanced vertical mixing (due to internal tides) at the continental slope, while adjacent waters on the continental shelf were stratified, as confirmed by vertical profiles of temperature acquired during the cruise. The surface layer of the stratified water masses (on the continental shelf) was depleted of inorganic nutrients. Dissolved silicate (DSi) levels probably did not allow significant diatom development. We hypothesize that mixing at the continental slope allowed the injection of inorganic nutrients that triggered the blooming of mixed phytoplanktonic communities dominated by coccolithophores (Emiliania huxleyi) that were favoured with regards to diatoms due to the low DSi levels. Based on this conceptual frame, we used an indicator of vertical stratification to classify the different sampled stations, and to reconstruct the possible evolution of the bloom from the onset at the continental slope (triggered by vertical mixing) through its development as the water mass was advected on-shelf and stratified. We also established a carbon mass balance at each station by integrating in the photic layer PP, CAL and DCR. This allowed computation at each station of the contribution of PP, CAL and DCR to CO₂ fluxes in the photic layer, and how they changed from one station to another along the sequence of bloom development (as traced by the stratification indicator). This also showed a shift from net autotrophy to net heterotrophy as the water mass aged (stratified), and suggested the importance of extracellular production of carbon to sustain the bacterial demand in the photic and aphotic layers.     

One-dimensional hybrid approach to extensive air shower simulation

An efficient scheme for one-dimensional extensive air shower simulation and its implementation in the program conex are presented. Explicit Monte Carlo simulation of the high-energy part of hadronic and electro-magnetic cascades in the atmosphere is combined with a numeric solution of cascade equations for smaller energy sub-showers to obtain accurate shower predictions. The developed scheme allows us to calculate not only observables related to the number of particles (shower size) but also ionization energy deposit profiles which are needed for the interpretation of data of experiments employing the fluorescence light technique. We discuss in detail the basic algorithms developed and illustrate the power of the method. It is shown that Monte Carlo, numerical, and hybrid air shower calculations give consistent results which agree very well with those obtained within the corsika program.     

Surface and sub‐surface Schmidt hammer rebound value variation for a granite outcrop

This study presents rock strength variations at granite outcrops and in subsurface vertical profiles in the Jizerské hory Mountains, Czech Republic. Schmidt hammer rebound values in subsurface profiles change gradually from the bedrock surface downward. An exponential relation has been observed between the R‐values and depth in rock outcrops to a depth of around 4·5 m. The exponential nature of the curve indicates that rock hardness increases more rapidly with depth in the uppermost 1?m section of the rock profile. A detailed study of rebound values obtained from both intact and polished rock exposures reveal effects of surface grinding on results of the Schmidt hammer method. The range of data collected increases after grinding, allowing more precise discrimination of rock surfaces in respect of age and weathering. The Schmidt hammer method may be used effectively as a relative‐age dating tool for rock surfaces that originated during the Late Pleistocene. It is concluded that this time limitation can be significantly mitigated by surface grinding before measurement. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diverse stigmaphronid wasps in Early Cretaceous amber from Spain (Hymenoptera: Ceraphronoidea: Stigmaphronidae)

A diverse fauna of wasps of the extinct parasitoid family Stigmaphronidae (Ceraphronoidea) are recorded in Early Cretaceous (Lower Albian) amber from Spain. Seven new species in five genera are described and figured based on 51 specimens, representing more material than in all the world’s other amber deposits combined. New species include: Elasmophron mari sp. nov., Libanophron sugaar sp. nov., Hippocoon basajauni sp. nov., Burmaphron jentilak sp. nov., B. sorginak sp. nov., B. iratxoak sp. nov., and Tagsmiphron olentzero sp. nov. The significance of the fauna is discussed and compared with that of other Cretaceous amber deposits, in particular the tremendous richness of the Spanish fauna is contrasted with the complete absence of stigmaphronids in the slightly younger and nearby French amber. Whether this stark difference represents particularly favorable conditions for these parasitoids, or their hosts, in the Cretaceous Spanish archipelago, or whether it is owing to taphonomic factors is discussed.