Predicting Lahar-Inundation Zones: Case Study in West Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

This paper demonstrates techniques for pre-eruption prediction of lahar-inundation zones in areas where a volcano has not erupted within living memory and/or where baseline geological information about past lahars could be scarce or investigations to delimit past lahars might be incomplete. A lahar source (or proximal lahar-inundation) zone is predicted based on ratio of vertical descent to horizontal run-out of eruptive deposits that spawn lahars. Immediate post-eruption distal lahar-inundation zones are predicted based on “pre-eruption” distal lahar-inundation zones and on spatial factors derived from a digital elevation model. Susceptibility to distal lahar-inundation is estimated by weights-of-evidence, by logistic regression and by evidential belief functions. Predictive techniques are applied using a geographic information system and are tested in western part of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines). Predictive maps are compared with a forecast volcanic-hazard map through validation against a field-based volcanic-hazard map. The predictive model of proximal lahar-inundation zone has “true positive” prediction accuracy, “true negative” prediction accuracy, “false positive” prediction error and “false negative” prediction error that are similar to those of the forecast volcanic-hazard map. The predictive models of distal lahar inundation zones have higher “true positive” prediction accuracy and lower “false negative” prediction error than the forecast volcanic-hazard map, although the latter has higher “true negative” prediction accuracy and lower “false positive” prediction error than the former. The results illustrate utility of proposed predictive techniques in providing geo-information could be used, howbeit with caution, for planning to mitigate potential lahar hazards well ahead of an eruption that could generate substantial source materials for lahar formation.     

A Hybrid Fuzzy Weights-of-Evidence Model for Mineral Potential Mapping

This paper describes a hybrid fuzzy weights-of-evidence (WofE) model for mineral potential mapping that generates fuzzy predictor patterns based on (a) knowledge-based fuzzy membership values and (b) data-based conditional probabilities. The fuzzy membership values are calculated using a knowledge-driven logistic membership function, which provides a framework for treating systemic uncertainty and also facilitates the use of multiclass predictor maps in the modeling procedure. The fuzzy predictor patterns are combined using Bayes’ rule in a log-linear form (under an assumption of conditional independence) to update the prior probability of target deposit-type occurrence in every unique combination of predictor patterns. The hybrid fuzzy WofE model is applied to a regional-scale mapping of base-metal deposit potential in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province (western India). The output map of fuzzy posterior probabilities of base-metal deposit occurrence is classified subsequently to delineate zones with high-favorability, moderate favorability, and low-favorability for occurrence of base-metal deposits. An analysis of the favorability map indicates (a) significant improvement of probability of base-metal deposit occurrence in the high-favorability and moderate-favorability zones and (b) significant deterioration of probability of base-metal deposit occurrence in the low-favorability zones. The results demonstrate usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy WofE model in representation and in integration of evidential features to map relative potential for mineral deposit occurrence.     

Changes in diatom, pollen, and chironomid assemblages in response to a recent volcanic event in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes)

Several lakes in Chile are near important volcanic areas where eruption impacts can limit the quality of lacustrine sediments for reconstructing past environmental changes. In this study, we report changes in diatoms, pollen, and chironomids assemblages after a tephra deposition in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes). A sediment core obtained from Lake Galletué (40 m water depth) was sliced in 1 cm intervals and subsamples were taken to analyze each proxy. ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs activities were measured to obtain the geochronology and mineralogical analyses were performed to determine the mineral composition of the tephra. Diatom species composition and productivity were modified when the lake received the tephra; Aulacoseira granulata decreased and was later replaced by Cyclotella af. glomerata. After the tephra input, Aulacoseira granulata abundance increased to pre-disturbance levels and Cyclotella af. glomerata decreased. These changes seem to suggest a momentary increase in lake nutrient levels after the tephra deposition. Chironomid assemblages also decreased in head capsules just after the tephra deposition, but the most important change was the replacement of Ablabesmyia by Parakiefferiella, probably due to the sedimentological changes produced by the input of coarse tephra grains. Furthermore, unlike other studies, chironomid assemblages in Lake Galletué did not show a decrease drastically in diversity within the tephra layer. The pollen analysis indicated that, prior to the volcanic event, the vegetal community was dominated by Nothofagus sp., Araucaria araucana, and Blechnum sp.-type. After the tephra deposition, the same taxa are dominant, indicating that the volcanic event seems not produce changes in the vegetation. Nevertheless, within the tephra layer it is possible to see an increase in Poaceae, which represent – due to the percolation process – the effect of eruption on the vegetation. According to our results, diatoms were the most sensitive proxy for describing the changes produced by tephra deposition into the aquatic ecosystem and, despite the noticeable changes in its sedimentological properties; the lake seems to have a high resilience capacity, allowing it to return to pre-tephra input conditions.     

Regional geochemical baseline concentration of potentially toxic trace metals in the mineralized Lom Basin,East Cameroon: a tool for contamination assessment

The distribution of trace metals in active stream sediments from the mineralized Lom Basin has been evaluated. Fifty-five bottom sediments were collected and the mineralogical composition of six pulverized samples determined by XRD. The fine fraction (<?150 µm) was subjected to total digestion (HClO₄?+?HF?+?HCl) and analyzed for trace metals using a combination of ICP-MS and AAS analytical methods. Results show that the mineralogy of stream sediments is dominated by quartz (39–86%), phyllosilicates (0–45%) and feldspars (0–27%). Mean concentrations of the analyzed metals are low (e.g. As?=?99.40 µg/kg, Zn?=?573.24 µg/kg, V?=?963.14 µg/kg and Cr?=?763.93 µg/kg). Iron and Mn have significant average concentrations of 28.325 and 442 mg/kg, respectively. Background and threshold values of the trace metals were computed statistically to determine geochemical anomalies of geologic or anthropogenic origin, particularly mining activity. Factor analysis, applied on normalized data, identified three associations: Ni–Cr–V–Co–As–Se–pH, Cu–Zn–Hg–Pb–Cd–Sc and Fe–Mn. The first association is controlled by source geology and the neutral pH, the second by sulphide mineralization and the last by chemical weathering of ferromagnesian minerals. Spatial analysis reveals similar distribution trends for Co–Cr–V–Ni and Cu–Zn–Pb–Sc reflecting the lithology and sulphide mineralization in the basin. Relatively high levels of As were concordant with reported gold occurrences in the area while Fe and Mn distribution are consistent with their source from the Fe-bearing metamorphic rocks. These findings provide baseline geochemical values for common and parallel geological domains in the eastern region of Cameroon. Although this study shows that the stream sediments are not polluted, the evaluation of metal composition in environmental samples from abandoned and active mine sites for comparison and environmental health risk assessment is highly recommended.     

Locational analysis of slums and the effects of slum dweller’s activities on the social,economic and ecological facets of the city: insights from Kumasi in Ghana

GeoJournal - Slum development has become a major urban planning and management problem due to the challenges they&nbsp;pose to the larger urban environment. Activities of slum dwellers are...     

Gopher bioturbation: field evidence for non‐linear hillslope diffusion

It has generally been assumed that diffusive sediment transport on soil‐mantled hillslopes is linearly dependent on hillslope gradient. Fieldwork was done near Santa Barbara, California, to develop a sediment transport equation for bioturbation by the pocket gopher (Thomomys bottae) and to determine whether it supports linear diffusion. The route taken by the sediment is divided into two parts, a subsurface path followed by a surface path. The first is the transport of soil through the burrow to the burrow opening. The second is the discharge of sediment from the burrow opening onto the hillslope surface. The total volumetric sediment flux, as a function of hillslope gradient, is found to be: q_s (cm³ cm⁻¹ a⁻¹) = 176(dz/dx)³ − 189(dz/dx)² + 68(dz/dx) + 34(dz/dx)^0·4. This result does not support the use of linear diffusion for hillslopes where gopher bioturbation is the dominant mode of sediment transport. A one‐dimensional hillslope evolution program was used to evolve hillslope profiles according to non‐linear and linear diffusion and to compare them to a typical hillslope. The non‐linear case more closely resembles the actual profile with a convex cap at the divide leading into a straight midslope section. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineralogy and geochemistry of pozzolans from the Tombel Plain,Bamileke Plateau,and Noun Plain monogenetic volcanoes in the central part of the Cameroon Volcanic Line

Acta Geochimica - Pozzolans from the Tombel Plain, Bamileke Plateau, and Noun Plain, 3 monogenetic volcanic fields in the central part of the Cameroon Volcanic Line (the Tombel Plain, Bamileke...     

Origin of isolated olivine grains in carbonaceous chondrites

We report microscopic, cathodoluminescence, chemical, and O isotopic measurements of FeO‐poor isolated olivine grains (IOG) in the carbonaceous chondrites Allende (CV3), Northwest Africa 5958 (C2‐ung), Northwest Africa 11086 (CM2‐an), and Allan Hills 77307 (CO3.0). The general petrographic, chemical, and isotopic similarity with bona fide type I chondrules confirms that the IOG derived from them. The concentric CL zoning, reflecting a decrease in refractory elements toward the margins, and frequent rimming by enstatite are taken as evidence of interaction of the IOG with the gas as stand‐alone objects. This indicates that they were splashed out of chondrules when these were still partially molten. CaO‐rich refractory forsterites, which are restricted to ?¹⁷O <?4‰ likely escaped equilibration at lower temperatures because of their large size and possibly quicker quenching. The IOG thus bear witness to frequent collisions in the chondrule‐forming regions.