Using land cover changes and demographic data to improve hydrological modeling in the Sahel

At the beginning of the drought in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s, rainfall decreased markedly, but runoff coefficients and in some cases, absolute runoff increased. This situation was due to the conversion of the land cover from natural vegetation with a low annual runoff coefficient, to cropland and bare soils, whose runoff coefficients are higher. Unless they are adapted, hydrological conceptual models, such as GR2M, are unable to reproduce this increase in runoff. Despite the varying environmental and climatic conditions of the West African Sahel, we show that it is possible to increase the performance of the GR2M model simulations by elaborating a time‐varying soil water holding capacity and to incorporate this value in the annual maximum amount of water to be stored in reservoir A of the model. We looked for interactions between climate, rural society, and the environment. These interactions drive land‐cover changes in the Sahel, which in turn drive the distribution of rainfall between infiltration, evaporation, and runoff and hence the water resources, which are vital in this region. We elaborated several time series of key indicators linked to these interactions. We then integrated these changes in the runoff conditions of the GR2M model through the maximum value of the reservoir capacity. We calculated annual values of water holding capacity using the annual values of four classes of land cover, natural vegetation, cultivated area, bare soil, and surface water. We then used the hydrological model with and without this time‐varying soil value of A and compared the performances of the model under the two scenarios. Whatever the calibration period used, the Nash–Sutcliffe index was always greater in the case of the time‐varying A time series.     

The tectono-sedimentary evolution of a hyper-extended rift basin: the example of the Arzacq–Mauléon rift system (Western Pyrenees,SW France)

In this paper, we present a sedimentary and structural analysis that together with maps, sections and new Ar/Ar data enable to describe the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Mauléon hyper-extended rift basin exposed in the W-Pyrenees. Hyper-extension processes that ultimately resulted in exhuming mantle rocks are the result of the subsequent development of two diachronous detachment systems related to two evolutional stages of rifting. An initial Late Aptian Early Albian crustal thinning phase is first recorded by the development of a crustal necking zone controlled by the north-vergent Southern Mauléon Detachment system. During a subsequent exhumation phase, active faulting migrates to the north with the emplacement of the Northern Mauléon detachment system that exhumed north section thinned continental crust and mantle rocks. This diachronous crustal thinning and exhumation processes are also recorded by the diachronous deposition of syn-tectonic sedimentary tracts above the two supra-detachment sub-basins. Syn-tectonic sedimentary tracts record the progressive exhumation of footwall rocks along detachment systems. Tectonic migration from the southern to the northern Mauléon Detachment system is recorded by the coeval deposition of “sag” deposits above the necking zone basin and of syn-tectonic tracts above exhumed rocks north section. Located on a hanging-wall situation related to the Mauléon hyper-extension structures, the Arzacq Basin also records a major crustal thinning phase as shown by its subsidence evolution so as by deep seismic images. The absence of major top-basement structures and its overall sag morphology suggest that crustal thinning processes occurred by decoupled extension of lower crustal levels contrasting with the Southern Mauléon Detachment system. Reconciling observations from the Mauléon and Arzacq Basins, we finally propose in this paper that they were the result of one and the same asymmetric crustal thinning and exhumation processes, where extension is accommodated into the upper crust in the Mauléon Basin (lower plate basin) and relayed in ductile lower crust below the Arzacq Basin (upper plate basin).     

Analytical models for the rigid body motions of skew bridges

The rigid body motions of the bridge deck, along with the impact between the bridge deck and the abutments, were the source of extensive damage on skew highway bridges during the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. In this paper, a model for the rigid body motions of skew bridges is presented and analysed. The focus of the model is the appropriate representation of the impact between the bridge deck and the abutments and the explanation of the inducement of in-plane rotational vibrations of the bridge deck as the result of this impact. A simplified model is briefly described first, and the kinematic mechanism of the problem is explained. Then, the analysis of a more detailed and realistic model follows. This model is applied on a short skew bridge located in Riverside, California. The response of this bridge to several earthquake shakings revealed that the planar rigid body rotations of the deck are induced primarily as a result of the skewness of the deck and the impact between the deck and the abutments.     

Large-offset approximation to seismic reflection traveltimes

Conventional approximations of reflection traveltimes assume a small offset-to-depth ratio, and their accuracy decreases with increasing offset-to-depth ratio. Hence, they are not suitable for velocity analysis and stacking of long-offset reflection seismic data. Assuming that the offset is large, rather than small, we present a new traveltime approximation which is exact at infinite offset and has a decreasing accuracy with decreasing offset-to-depth ratio. This approximation has the form of a series containing powers of the offset from 1 to −∞. It is particularly accurate in the presence of a thin high-velocity layer above the reflector, i.e. in a situation where the accuracy of the Taner and Koehler series is poor. This new series can be used to gain insight into the velocity information contained in reflection traveltimes at large offsets, and possibly to improve velocity analysis and stacking of long-offset reflection seismic data.     

Extraction of hysteretic properties of seismically isolated bridges from quick‐release field tests

A simple procedure for identifying hysteretic properties of seismically isolated bridges from full‐scale quick‐release tests is presented in this paper. An analytical solution for the quick‐release response of a SDOF system with a bilinear spring is derived. Based on the solution, some characteristics of such systems are obtained. A time domain optimization method is employed to identify the hysteretic properties of the lead–rubber bearings installed in seismically isolated bridges. The total damping effects of the isolation system are expressed as a combination of the rate‐independent (hysteretic) damping and the linear viscous damping. The Menegotto–Pinto (MP) model and bilinear model are used to represent the force–displacement relation of the lead–rubber bearings. In both the longitudinal and transverse directions the bridges have been idealized as single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems. Time histories recorded from the field quick‐release tests on two bridges are used for the examples presented herein. The hysteretic loops of the isolators obtained from laboratory tests are compared with those obtained using the optimization method, and they agree well. In conclusion, the procedure shown in this paper can be used to identify the essential in situ hysteretic characteristics of isolation bearings from quick‐release field testing. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a high resolution runoff routing model, calibration and application to assess runoff from the LMD GCM

Large-scale runoff routing models (RRMs) are important as a validation tool for GCMs, and to close the hydrological cycle in fully-coupled climate models. The model RiTHM was developed to simulate the discharge of large rivers from the total runoff simulated by the LMD GCM. It uses a 1024×800 grid, nested in the 64×50 grid of the LMD GCM. The runoff simulated in a GCM grid cell is uniformly distributed over the underlying cells, where a series of two reservoirs accounts for the delay related to infiltration through the unsaturated zone and aquifers. The resulting riverflow is routed assuming pure translation along the drainage network, extracted with a GIS from a 5 min DEM. The transfer time from a cell to the outlet depends on topography, and on a basin-wide parameter, the time of concentration. RiTHM was calibrated in 11 river basins, using a realistic runoff forcing (computed by the land surface model SECHIBA from reanalyzed meteorological forcing). This led to a very satisfactory reproduction of observed hydrographs. The main problems were related to hydraulic processes neglected in RiTHM (reservoirs, diversion of riverflow because of flooding or irrigation). These results helped to validate SECHIBA, except for its snow processes, shown to be too simple. With the same parameters, RiTHM was also forced with runoff from the LMD GCM. This induced an important degradation of the simulated hydrographs, regarding both volume and timing. It was largely explained by errors in precipitation, and more generally climate, in the GCM. The direct calibration of RiTHM under the GCM-runoff forcing markedly improved the timing of simulated discharge, which could be interesting for land–atmosphere–ocean coupling. This work demonstrated that the usefulness of RRMs for GCMs strongly depends on their adequate calibration.     

Revisiting the Basin-edge Effect at Kobe During the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu Earthquake

The basin edge effect, i.e., the interference of the direct S wave with the surface wave diffracted off the basin edge has been invoked by many authors to explain the damage distribution during the January 17, 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake. Here we present the results of numerical experiments obtained with the spectral element method in 2-D geometry. Our results confirm that the amplification of horizontal motion close to the basin edge can be twice as large as the one measured in the center of the basin. This additional amplification is shown to depend strongly on the edge geometry and on frequency, due to physical dispersion of diffracted surface waves. In particular we obtain maximal amplification around 3 Hz, at frequencies critical for buildings.     

NO<Subscript>3</Subscript> Vertical Profile Measurements from Remote Sensing Balloon-Borne Spectrometers and Comparison with Model Calculations

Eleven vertical profiles of stratospheric NO₃ have been obtained since 1992 using the AMON and SALOMON balloon-borne UV-visible spectrometers. The measurements are compared to the SLIMCAT 3D model and calculations based on the steady-state hypothesis for NO₃. The calculations cannot reproduce some parts of the profiles which exhibit strong concentration fluctuations over few kilometres, as a consequence of the dependence of NO₃ on local temperature variations. A statistical use of the data allows us to estimate the influence of the temperature dependence of the absorption cross-section on the data analysis, and the validity of the recommended reaction rates available in the literature. Discrepancies exist between the model based on recommended kinetics and observations at warmer temperatures. Nevertheless, the analysis is biased by local temperature inhomogeneities, and only a low-resolution vertical shape of the NO₃ profiles can be retrieved.     

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979?C2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3° northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Ni?o events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Ni?o event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6° to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10° south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Ni?o years in general. Different characteristics of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Pacific equatorial warming are shown to impact differently on the SPCZ position, suggesting that for regional scales, such as the South Pacific, the SPCZ classification is more appropriate than a simple ENSO index to characterize TC interannual variability. These findings suggest that forecasting the strength of El Ni?o through SST variations in the eastern Pacific may not be sufficient to accurately predict cyclogenesis in the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline.