Spectral Trends of Solar Bursts at Sub-THz Frequencies

Previous sub-THz studies were derived from single-event observations. We here analyze for the first time spectral trends for a larger collection of sub-THz bursts. The collection consists of a set of 16 moderate to small impulsive solar radio bursts observed at 0.2 and 0.4 THz by the Solar Submillimeter-wave Telescope (SST) in 2012?–?2014 at El Leoncito, in the Argentinean Andes. The peak burst spectra included data from new solar patrol radio telescopes (45 and 90 GHz), and were completed with microwave data obtained by the Radio Solar Telescope Network, when available. We critically evaluate errors and uncertainties in sub-THz flux estimates caused by calibration techniques and the corrections for atmospheric transmission, and introduce a new method to obtain a uniform flux scale criterion for all events. The sub-THz bursts were searched during reported GOES soft X-ray events of class C or larger, for periods common to SST observations. Seven out of 16 events exhibit spectral maxima in the range 5?–?40 GHz with fluxes decaying at sub-THz frequencies (three of them associated to GOES class X, and four to class M). Nine out of 16 events exhibited the sub-THz spectral component. In five of these events, the sub-THz emission fluxes increased with a separate frequency from that of the microwave spectral component (two classified as X and three as M), and four events have only been detected at sub-THz frequencies (three classified as M and one as C). The results suggest that the THz component might be present throughout, with the minimum turnover frequency increasing as a function of the energy of the emitting electrons. The peculiar nature of many sub-THz burst events requires further investigations of bursts that are examined from SST observations alone to better understand these phenomena.     

Long-term evolution of the spin of Venus: II. numerical simulations

We present here the numerical application of the theoretical results derived in Correia et al. (2003, Icarus 163, 1-23) for the spin evolution of Venus since its formation. We explore a large variety of initial conditions to cover the possible formation and evolutionary scenarios. In particular, we pay special attention to the evolutions which cross the chaotic zone resulting from secular planetary perturbations (Laskar and Robutel, 1993, Nature 361, 608-612). We demonstrate that Venus’ axis can be temporarily trapped in a secular resonance with the node of Neptune’s orbit, which can prevent it from being tilted to 180° and will drive it toward 0°. We test several dissipation models and parameters to evaluate their contribution to the planet’s spin history. We confirm that despite the variations in the models, only three of the four final spin states of Venus are possible (Correia and Laskar, 2001, Nature 411, 767-770) and that the present observed retrograde spin state of Venus can be attained by two different processes. In the first scenario (π−), the axis is tilted toward 180° while its rotation rate slows down, while in the second one, the axis is driven toward 0° obliquity and the rotation rate decreases, stops, and increases again in the reverse direction to a final equilibrium value (0−).     

Parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer for Diagnostic Wind Models

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization is a key issue for the definition of initial wind flow fields in diagnostic models. However, PBL theories usually treat separately stable, neutral, and convective stability conditions, so that their implementation in diagnostic wind models is not straightforward. In the present paper, an attempt is made to adopt a comprehensive PBL parameterisation, covering stable/neutral and unstable atmospheric conditions, which appears suitable to diagnostic models. This parameterisation is implemented into our diagnostic mass-consistent code. A validation of the consistency between the implemented PBL parameterisations has been checked through an analysis of the sensitivity of the vertical wind profiles to atmospheric stability.     

Tidal evolution of hierarchical and inclined systems

We investigate the dynamical evolution of hierarchical three-body systems under the effect of tides, when the ratio of the orbital semi-major axes is small and the mutual inclination is relatively large (greater than 20°). Using the quadrupolar non-restricted approximation for the gravitational interactions and the viscous linear model for tides, we derive the averaged equations of motion in a vectorial formalism which is suitable to model the long-term evolution of a large variety of exoplanetary systems in very eccentric and inclined orbits. In particular, it can be used to derive constraints for stellar spin-orbit misalignment, capture in Cassini states, tidal-Kozai migration, or damping of the mutual inclination. Because our model is valid for the non-restricted problem, it can be used to study systems of identical mass or for the outer restricted problem, such as the evolution of a planet around a binary of stars. Here, we apply our model to various situations in the HD 11964, HD 80606, and HD 98800 systems.     

Catastrophic,rainfall-induced debris flows in Andean villages of Tarapacá, Atacama Desert,northern Chile

In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfall event affected the deeply incised valleys of the Precordillera of the Tarapacá Region, northern Chile. This extreme event in a very arid region triggered a number of debris and mud flows that caused severe damage and destruction in several small villages along the Camiña and Tarapacá valleys. The highly vulnerable location of the villages on top of alluvial fans due to socioeconomic and cultural reasons is a key factor to explain the level of destruction in most villages. In this paper, this unusual, remarkable landslide event is described, and the hazard faced by these settlements for future rainfall episodes and possible mitigation measures are discussed.     

Extreme value modelling of daily areal rainfall over Mediterranean catchments in a changing climate

Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long term evolution and chaotic diffusion of the insolation quantities of Mars

As the obliquity of Mars is strongly chaotic, it is not possible to give a solution for its evolution over more than a few million years. Using the most recent data for the rotational state of Mars, and a new numerical integration of the Solar System, we provide here a precise solution for the evolution of Mars' spin over 10 to 20 Myr. Over 250 Myr, we present a statistical study of its possible evolution, when considering the uncertainties in the present rotational state. Over much longer time span, reaching 5 Gyr, chaotic diffusion prevails, and we have performed an extensive statistical analysis of the orbital and rotational evolution of Mars, relying on Laskar's secular solution of the Solar System, based on more than 600 orbital and 200,000 obliquity solutions over 5 Gyr. The density functions of the eccentricity and obliquity are specified with simple analytical formulas. We found an averaged eccentricity of Mars over 5 Gyr of 0.0690 with standard deviation 0.0299, while the averaged value of the obliquity is 37.62° with a standard deviation of 13.82°, and a maximal value of 82.035°. We find that the probability for Mars' obliquity to have reached more than 60° in the past 1 Gyr is 63.0%, and 89.3% in 3 Gyr. Over 4 Gyr, the position of Mars' axis is given by a uniform distribution on a spherical cap limited by the obliquity 58.62°, with the addition of a random noise allowing a slow diffusion beyond this limit. We can also define a standard model of Mars' insolation parameters over 4 Gyr with the most probable values 0.068 for the eccentricity and 41.80° for the obliquity.     

Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36?h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24–36?h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode.