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101.
102.
103.
Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources
at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes
based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures
is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an
appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and
levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations.
The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume.
The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type
gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable
volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency
distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.
相似文献
Emil D. AttanasiEmail: |
104.
The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional
gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge
of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment
results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to
80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest
trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations
of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further
analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional
trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological
literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon
may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which
may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays. 相似文献
105.
Carbon storage and catchment hydrology are influenced both by land use changes and climatic changes, but there are few studies
addressing both responses under both driving forces. We investigated the relative importance of climate change vs. land use change for four Alpine catchments using the LPJ-GUESS model. Two scenarios of grassland management were calibrated
based on the more detailed model PROGRASS. The simulations until 2100 show that only reforestation could lead to an increase
of carbon storage under climatic change, whereby a cessation of carbon accumulation occurred in all catchments after 2050.
The initial increase in carbon storage was attributable mainly to forest re-growth on abandoned land, whereas the stagnation
and decline in the second half of the century was mainly driven by climate change. If land was used more intensively, i.e.
as grassland, litter input to the soil decreased due to harvesting, resulting in a decline of soil carbon storage (1.2−2.9 kg C
m–2) that was larger than the climate-induced change (0.8–1.4 kg C m−2). Land use change influenced transpiration both directly and in interaction with climate change. The response of forested
catchments diverged with climatic change (11–40 mm increase in AET), reflecting the differences in forest age, topography
and water holding capacity within and between catchments. For grass-dominated catchments, however, transpiration responded
in a similar manner to climate change (light management: 23–32 mm AET decrease, heavy management: 29–44 mm AET decrease),
likely because grassroots are concentrated in the uppermost soil layers. Both the water and the carbon cycle were more strongly
influenced by land use compared to climatic changes, as land use had not only a direct effect on carbon storage and transpiration,
but also an indirect effect by modifying the climate change response of transpiration and carbon flux in the catchments. For
the carbon cycle, climate change led to a cessation of the catchment response (sink/source strength is limited), whereas for
the water cycle, the effect of land use change remains evident throughout the simulation period (changes in evapotranspiration
do not attenuate). Thus we conclude that management will have a large potential to influence the carbon and water cycle, which
needs to be considered in management planning as well as in climate and hydrological modelling. 相似文献
106.
107.
Christian Wolf Alfonso Aragón-Salamanca Michael Balogh Marco Barden Eric F. Bell Meghan E. Gray Chien Y. Peng David Bacon Fabio D. Barazza Asmus Böhm John A. R. Caldwell Anna Gallazzi Boris Häußler Catherine Heymans Knud Jahnke Shardha Jogee Eelco van Kampen Kyle Lane Daniel H. McIntosh Klaus Meisenheimer Casey Papovich Sebastian F. Sánchez y Taylor Lutz Wisotzki Xianzhong Zheng 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(4):1302-1323
We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of σ cz ≈ 2000 km s−1 . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of log M * /M⊙ =[10, 11] where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At log M * /M⊙ < 10 , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment. 相似文献
108.
We present a parameter study of simulations of fragmentation regulated by gravity, magnetic fields, ambipolar diffusion, and nonlinear flows. The thin-sheet approximation is employed with periodic lateral boundary conditions, and the nonlinear flow field (“turbulence”) is allowed to freely decay. In agreement with previous results in the literature, our results show that the onset of runaway collapse (formation of the first star) in subcritical clouds is significantly accelerated by nonlinear flows in which a large-scale wave mode dominates the power spectrum. In addition, we find that a power spectrum with equal energy on all scales also accelerates collapse, but by a lesser amount. For a highly super-Alfvénic initial velocity field with most power on the largest scales, the collapse occurs promptly during the initial compression wave. However, for trans-Alfvénic perturbations, a subcritical magnetic field causes a rebound from the initial compression, and the system undergoes several oscillations before runaway collapse occurs. Models that undergo prompt collapse have highly supersonic infall motions at the core boundaries. Cores in magnetically subcritical models with trans-Alfvénic initial perturbations also pick up significant systematic speeds by inheriting motions associated with magnetically-driven oscillations. Core mass distributions are much broader than in models with small-amplitude initial perturbations, although the disturbed structure of cores that form due to nonlinear flows does not guarantee subsequent monolithic collapse. Our simulations also demonstrate that significant power (if present initially) can be maintained with negligible dissipation in large-scale compressive modes of a magnetic thin sheet, in the limit of perfect flux freezing. 相似文献
109.
Sebastian Wolf 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,313(1-3):109-112
Theoretical investigations show that planet-disk interactions cause structures in circumstellar disks, which are usually much
larger in size than the planet itself and thus more easily detectable. The specific result of planet-disk interactions depends
on the evolutionary stage of the disk. Exemplary signatures of planets embedded in disks are gaps and spiral density waves
in the case of young, gas-rich protoplanetary disks and characteristic asymmetric density patterns in debris disks. Numerical
simulations convincingly demonstrate that high-resolution imaging performed with observational facilities which are already
available or will become available in the near future will allow to trace these “fingerprints” of planets in protoplanetary
and debris disks. These observations will provide a deep insight into specific phases of the formation and early evolution
of planets in circumstellar disks.
In this context, the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) will play a crucial role by allowing to trace features in disks
which are indicative for various stages of the formation and early evolution of planets in circumstellar disks. 相似文献
110.
Catherine Heymans Meghan E. Gray Chien Y. Peng Ludovic Van Waerbeke Eric F. Bell Christian Wolf David Bacon Michael Balogh Fabio D. Barazza Marco Barden Asmus Böhm John A. R. Caldwell Boris Häußler Knud Jahnke Shardha Jogee Eelco van Kampen Kyle Lane Daniel H. McIntosh Klaus Meisenheimer Yannick Mellier Sebastian F. Sánchez y N. Taylor Lutz Wisotzki Xianzhong Zheng 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,385(3):1431-1442
We present a high-resolution dark matter reconstruction of the z = 0.165 Abell 901/902 supercluster from a weak lensing analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope STAGES survey. We detect the four main structures of the supercluster at high significance, resolving substructure within and between the clusters. We find that the distribution of dark matter is well traced by the cluster galaxies, with the brightest cluster galaxies marking out the strongest peaks in the dark matter distribution. We also find a significant extension of the dark matter distribution of Abell 901a in the direction of an infalling X-ray group Abell 901α. We present mass, mass-to-light and mass-to-stellar mass ratio measurements of the structures and substructures that we detect. We find no evidence for variation of the mass-to-light and mass-to-stellar mass ratio between the different clusters. We compare our space-based lensing analysis with an earlier ground-based lensing analysis of the supercluster to demonstrate the importance of space-based imaging for future weak lensing dark matter 'observations'. 相似文献