Displacement of a landslide retaining wall and application of an enhanced failure forecasting approach

The 10-mile Slide is contained within an ancient earthflow located in British Columbia, Canada. The landslide has been moving slowly for over 40 years, requiring regular maintenance work along where a highway and a railway track cross the sliding mass. Since 2013, the landslide has shown signs of retrogression. Monitoring prisms were installed on a retaining wall immediately downslope from the railway alignment to monitor the evolution of the retrogression. As of September 2016, cumulative displacements in the horizontal direction approached 4.5 m in the central section of the railway retaining wall. After an initial phase of acceleration, horizontal velocities showed a steadier trend between 3 and 9 mm/day, which was then followed by a second acceleration phase. This paper presents an analysis of the characteristics of the surface displacement vectors measured at the monitoring prisms. Critical insight on the behavior and kinematics of the 10-mile Slide retrogression was gained. An advanced analysis of the trends of inverse velocity plots was also performed to assess the potential for a slope collapse at the 10-mile Slide and to obtain further knowledge on the nature of the sliding surface.     

Rheological properties of clayey soils originating from flow-like landslides

Flow-like landslides in clayey soils represent serious threats for populations and infrastructures and have been the subject of numerous studies in the past decade. However, despite the rising need for landslide mitigation with growing urbanization, the transient mechanisms involved in the solid-fluid transition are still poorly understood. One way of characterizing the solid-fluid transition is to carry out rheometrical tests on clayey soil samples to assess the evolution of viscosity with the shear stress. In this study, we carried out geotechnical and rheometrical tests on clayey samples collected from six flow-like landslides in order to assess if these clayey soils exhibit similar characteristics when they fluidize (solid-fluid transition). The results show that (1) all tested soils except one exhibit a yield-stress fluid behavior that can be associated with a bifurcation in viscosity (described by the critical shear rate \( \dot{\gamma_c} \)) and in shear modulus G; (2) the larger the amplitude of the viscosity bifurcation, the larger the associated drop in G; and (3) the water content (w) deviation from the Atterberg liquid limit (LL) seem a key parameter controlling a common mechanical behavior of these soils at the solid-fluid transition. We propose exponential laws describing the evolution of the critical shear stress τ_c, the critical shear rate \( \dot{\gamma_c} \), and the shear modulus G as a function of the deviation w-LL.     

The ground-based InSAR monitoring system at Stromboli volcano: linking changes in displacement rate and intensity of persistent volcanic activity

Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Archipelago, Southern Italy) experienced an increase in its volcanic activity from late December 2012 to March 2013, when it produced several lava overflows, major Strombolian explosions, crater-wall collapses pyroclastic density currents and intense spatter activity. An analysis of the displacement of the NE portion of the summit crater terrace and the unstable NW flank of the volcano (Sciara del Fuoco depression) has been performed with a ground-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (GBInSAR) by dividing the monitored part of the volcano into five sectors, three in the summit vents region and two in the Sciara del Fuoco. Changes in the displacement rate were observed in sectors 2 and 3. Field and thermal surveys revealed the presence of an alignment of fumaroles confirming the existence of an area of structural discontinuity between sectors 2 and 3. High displacement rates in sector 2 are interpreted to indicate the increase in the magmastatic pressure within the shallow plumbing systems, related to the rise of the magma level within the conduits, while increased displacement rates in sector 3 are connected to the lateral expansion of the shallow plumbing system. The increases and decreases in the displacement rate registered by the GBInSAR system in the upper part of the volcano have been used as a proxy for changes in the pressure conditions in the shallow plumbing system of Stromboli volcano and hence to forecast the occurrence of phases of higher-intensity volcanic activity.     

Predicting new snow density in the Italian Alps: A variability analysis based on 10 years of measurements

Despite its strong impact on the time evolution of the snowpack, current estimation of new snow density (ρ_hn) is usually accomplished either by using local empirical techniques or by assuming a constant snow density. Faced with the lack of an estimation model of ρ_hn valid for a wide spatial scale and supported by a suitable number of observations, this study aims to develop simple monthly linear regression models at scale of the entire Italian Alpine chain based on 12,112 snowfall observations at 122 stations, using only air temperature as predictor. Moreover, the remaining variance is investigated in both time and space, also considering some qualitative features of the snowfall events. The daily ρ_hn measurements present a mean value of 115 kg m^?3 (105 and 159 kg m^?3 for dry and wet conditions, respectively). The mean air temperature of the 24 hr preceding the snowfall event has been found to be the best predictor of the ρ_hn, within 31% of uncertainty. The analysis of associated residues allows supporting the idea that the adoption of a more local approach than the one analysed here is not able to substantially increase the predictive capabilities of the model. In fact, the main factor explaining the remaining variance over the air temperature is the wind, but in a complex orography, as mountain regions are, supplying realistic local wind fields is particularly challenging. Therefore, we conclude that using only the daily mean temperature as predictor is a good choice for estimating daily new snow density at scale of Italian Alpine chain, as well as at more regional scale.     

Tectonic and oceanographic control of sedimentary patterns in a small oceanic basin: Dove Basin (Scotia Sea,Antarctica)

Dove Basin, a small oceanic domain located within the southern Scotia Sea, evidences a complex tectonic evolution linked to the development of the Scotia Arc. The basin also straddles the junction between the main Southern Ocean water masses: the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the Southeast Pacific Deep Water (SPDW) and the Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW). Analysis of multichannel seismic reflection profiles, together with swath bathymetry data, reveals the main structure and sediment distribution of the basin, allowing a reconstruction of the tectonostratigraphic evolution of the basin and assessment of the main bottom water flows that influenced its depositional development. Sediment dispersed in the basin was largely influenced by gravity‐driven transport from adjacent continental margins, later modified by deep bottom currents. Sediments derived from melting icebergs and extensive ice sheets also contributed to a fraction of the basin deposits. We identify four stages in the basin evolution which – based on regional age assumptions – took place during the early Miocene, middle Miocene, late Miocene–early Pliocene and late Pliocene–Quaternary. The onsets of the ACC flow in Dove Basin during the early Miocene, the WSDW flow during the middle Miocene, and the SPDW during the late Miocene were influenced by tectonic events that facilitated the opening of new oceanic gateways in the region. The analysis of Dove Basin reveals that tectonics is a primary factor influencing its sedimentary stacking patterns, the structural development of new oceanic gateways permitting the inception of deep‐water flows that have since controlled the sedimentary processes.     

Ground‐based InSAR reveals conduit pressurization pulses at Stromboli volcano

At Stromboli volcano (Southern Italy), only few minor precursors (gas output) have been identified for ‘major’ Strombolian explosions. We use ground‐based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (GBInSAR) technology to monitor the displacement rate of the summit area of Stromboli. We analysed the 2009–2011 period. The analysis of the displacement rate has been performed by dividing the summit zone monitored by the GBInSAR into three regions, corresponding to the edge of the crater area (1 and 2), and to the slope of the NE crater (3). Pulses of rapid expansion of sector 3, of variable duration and amplitude, appear in coincidence with periods of intense activity that include lava flows and major explosions. We associate this expansion with the pressurization of the magma column that is recharged by deep‐derived gas, promoting the onset of ‘major explosion‐dominated’ activity.