Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.     

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

Some characteristics of cumulus convection over the Tibetan Plateau

The diagnostic model of the cumulus convection proposed by Yanai et al. (1973) was applied to the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau, and used to estimate the vertical mass flux, entrainment and detrainment, excess temperature and moisture, liquid water content, and condensation and precipitation rates of highland cloud clusters. The re-sults illustrated that in clouds over the Tibetan Plateau, the water vapor condensation rate, liquid water content, and efficiency of the rain generation process are less than those in the tropics (represented by the Marshall Islands region). Therefore, the condensational latent heat released over the Tibetan Plateau, overall, is much smaller than that in the tropics. The water vapor and liquid water detrainment from shallow nonprecipitating cumulus clouds, and their entrainment into deep cumulus clouds, serve as a growing mechanism for the deep precipitating cumulus towers over the Tibetan Plateau. It should be noted that there is a stronger detrainment of liquid water from cumulus clouds and a stronger re-evaporation rate in environment. The process of the condensation-detrainment-re-evaporation-entrainment is repeatedly in progress. It would play an important role in maintaining of cumulus convection on the condition that the supply of moisture is not plentiful over the Tibetan Plateau.The analyses also showed that the cloud mass flux Mc over the Tibetan Plateau is less, and the large-scale av-erage upward motion is much less than those over the Marshall Islands. Stronger compensating downward motion in the cloud environment over the Tibetan Plateau, responsible for the area’s strong environmental heating rate was re-vealed, and would link to the stability of the South Asian High in summer.     

Integration of root systems into a GIS-based slip surface model: computational experiments in a generic hillslope environment

Root systems of trees reinforce the underlying soil in hillslope environments and therefore potentially increase slope stability. So far, the influence of root systems is disregarded in Geographic Information System (GIS) models that calculate slope stability along distinct failure plane. In this study, we analyse the impact of different root system compositions and densities on slope stability conditions computed by a GIS-based slip surface model. We apply the 2.5D slip surface model r.slope.stability to 23 root system scenarios imposed on pyramidoid-shaped elements of a generic landscape. Shallow, taproot and mixed root systems are approximated by paraboloids and different stand and patch densities are considered. The slope failure probability (P_f) is derived for each raster cell of the generic landscape, considering the reinforcement through root cohesion. Average and standard deviation of P_f are analysed for each scenario. As expected, the r.slope.stability yields the highest values of P_f for the scenario without roots. In contrast, homogeneous stands with taproot or mixed root systems yield the lowest values of P_f. P_f generally decreases with increasing stand density, whereby stand density appears to exert a more pronounced influence on P_f than patch density. For patchy stands, P_f increases with a decreasing size of the tested slip surfaces. The patterns yielded by the computational experiments are largely in line with the results of previous studies. This approach provides an innovative and simple strategy to approximate the additional cohesion supplied by root systems and thereby considers various compositions of forest stands in 2.5D slip surface models. Our findings will be useful for developing strategies towards appropriately parameterising root reinforcement in real-world slope stability modelling campaigns.     

Quasi-biennial variations in the winter-time circulation of high latitudes

Summary In the years between 1952 and 1962 a quasi-biennial modulation became apparent in the total ozone values measured over Arosa, Switzerland, during spring. The stratospheric vortex behavior in the northern hemisphere during March of the years 1958 to 1964 also showed a biennial variation. This has led to speculations that the quasi-biennial forcing of the tropical stratosphere may extend its influence to the stratosphere and troposphere of high latitudes. It is shown in this paper that the stratosphere and troposphere of high latitudes in the northern hemisphere, indeed, are coupled by a feedback mechanism. The forcing from tropical latitudes, however, seems to be minimal.

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Die quasi-biennale Veränderlichkeit der Zirkulation in hohen Breiten während des Winters

Zusammenfassung Während der Jahre 1952 bis 1962 wurde in den über Arosa, Schweiz, im Frühling gemessenen Gesamtozonwerten eine quasi-biennale Modulierung entdeckt. Das Verhalten des stratosphärischen Polarwirbels im März der Jahre 1958 bis 1964 zeigte ebenfalls eine zweijährliche Veränderlichkeit. Dies verleitete zur Schlußfolgerung, daß die quasi-biennale Einwirkung der tropischen Stratosphäre sich bis in die Stratosphäre und die Troposphäre hoher Breiten erstreckt. In der vorlegenden Studie wird gezeigt, daß die Stratosphäre und Troposphäre der Nordhalbkugel in hohen Breiten tatsächlich durch einen Rückkoppelungs-Mechanismus verbunden sind. Der Einfluß tropischer Breiten auf die Zirkulationsmodulierung scheint jedoch gering zu sein.

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With 14 Figures     

40Ar-39Ar ages of Dellen,Jänisjärvi,and Sääksjärvi impact craters

Abstract— ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age measurements were made for three whole rock melt samples produced during impact events which formed the Dellen, Jänisjärvi, and Sääksjärvi craters on the Baltic Shield. An age of 109.6 ± 1.0 Ma was obtained for the Dellen sample based on an age spectrum plateau. The age spectrum shows a small (7%) loss of radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar from low temperature fractions. Ages of 698 ± 22 Ma and 560 ± 12 Ma were obtained from isochrons for the Jänisjärvi and Sääksjärvi samples, respectively. Data obtained by laser degassing support the Sääksjärvi result. The presence of excess ⁴⁰Ar is indicated in lower temperature fractions for both samples and is correlated with K concentrations in the Sääksjärvi sample. Models explaining these results may require a change in the local “atmospheric” Ar isotopic composition as cooling of melt rocks proceeded. However, it cannot be excluded that devitrification and/or alteration changed the Ar budget. A crater production rate on the Baltic Shield based on measured ages of 6 craters is (0.3 ± 0.2) · 10^?14 20-km-and-larger craters per km² per year, in satisfactory agreement with previous estimates.     

Buddha from space—An ancient object of art made of a Chinga iron meteorite fragment*

Abstract– The fall of meteorites has been interpreted as divine messages by multitudinous cultures since prehistoric times, and meteorites are still adored as heavenly bodies. Stony meteorites were used to carve birds and other works of art; jewelry and knifes were produced of meteoritic iron for instance by the Inuit society. We here present an approximately 10.6 kg Buddhist sculpture (the “iron man”) made of an iron meteorite, which represents a particularity in religious art and meteorite science. The specific contents of the crucial main (Fe, Ni, Co) and trace (Cr, Ga, Ge) elements indicate an ataxitic iron meteorite with high Ni contents (approximately 16 wt%) and Co (approximately 0.6 wt%) that was used to produce the artifact. In addition, the platinum group elements (PGEs), as well as the internal PGE ratios, exhibit a meteoritic signature. The geochemical data of the meteorite generally match the element values known from fragments of the Chinga ataxite (ungrouped iron) meteorite strewn field discovered in 1913. The provenance of the meteorite as well as of the piece of art strongly points to the border region of eastern Siberia and Mongolia, accordingly. The sculpture possibly portrays the Buddhist god Vai?ravana and might originate in the Bon culture of the eleventh century. However, the ethnological and art historical details of the “iron man” sculpture, as well as the timing of the sculpturing, currently remain speculative.     

A Unifying Scheme for Low-Luminosity XRBs and AGN

In recent years, significant evidence for the similar nature of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and X-ray binaries (XRBs) has been gathered. We describe a unification scheme for accreting black holes following the idea that weakly accreting systems may be jet dominated. This is tested with the radio/X-ray correlation of XRBs and AGN. The established correlation is further used to diagnose ultra-luminous X-ray sources. For higher accretion rates, we explore high-power jets and the effect of Compton cooling of the jet by the accretion disk.