Shock‐metamorphic microfeatures in chert from the Jebel Waqf as Suwwan impact structure,Jordan

Abstract– The petrographic investigation of a shocked, chalcedony‐, quartzine‐, and quartz‐bearing allochthonous chert nodule (probably Upper Cretaceous) recovered from surficial wadi gravels in the inner parts of the central uplift of the approximately 6 km in diameter Jebel Waqf as Suwwan impact structure, Jordan, reveals new potential shock indicators in microfibrous–spherulitic silica, in addition to well‐established shock‐metamorphic effects in coarser crystalline quartz. The microcrystalline chert groundmass exhibits a macroscopic dendritic and suborthogonal fracture pattern commonly associated with thin “recrystallization bands” that intersect the pre‐existing diagenetic chert fabric. Fibrous aggregates of quartzine spherulites in chalcedony‐quartzine‐quartz veinlets locally have a shattered appearance and show conspicuous “curved fractures” perpendicular to the quartzine fiber direction (and parallel to [0001]) that commonly trend subparallel to planar fractures (PFs) in neighboring shocked quartz. Quartz exhibits PFs, feather features (FFs), and mainly single sets of planar deformation features (PDFs) parallel to the basal plane (0001) (Brazil twins) and, rarely, additional PDFs parallel to {101¯3}. Shock petrography indicates shock pressures of ≥10 GPa and high shock‐induced differential stresses that affected the chert nodule. The internal crosscutting relationships of primary diagenetic and impact‐related deformational features together with shockpressure estimates suggest that the curved fractures across quartzine spherulites might represent specific (low‐ to medium‐pressure) shock‐metamorphic features, possibly in structural analogy to basal plane PFs in quartz. The dendritic–suborthogonal fractures in the microcrystalline chert groundmass and recrystallization bands are likely related to impact‐induced shear deformation and recrystallization, respectively, and cannot be considered as definite shock indicators.     

Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO₂-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO₂-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.     

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

40Ar-39Ar ages of Dellen,Jänisjärvi,and Sääksjärvi impact craters

Abstract— ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar age measurements were made for three whole rock melt samples produced during impact events which formed the Dellen, Jänisjärvi, and Sääksjärvi craters on the Baltic Shield. An age of 109.6 ± 1.0 Ma was obtained for the Dellen sample based on an age spectrum plateau. The age spectrum shows a small (7%) loss of radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar from low temperature fractions. Ages of 698 ± 22 Ma and 560 ± 12 Ma were obtained from isochrons for the Jänisjärvi and Sääksjärvi samples, respectively. Data obtained by laser degassing support the Sääksjärvi result. The presence of excess ⁴⁰Ar is indicated in lower temperature fractions for both samples and is correlated with K concentrations in the Sääksjärvi sample. Models explaining these results may require a change in the local “atmospheric” Ar isotopic composition as cooling of melt rocks proceeded. However, it cannot be excluded that devitrification and/or alteration changed the Ar budget. A crater production rate on the Baltic Shield based on measured ages of 6 craters is (0.3 ± 0.2) · 10^?14 20-km-and-larger craters per km² per year, in satisfactory agreement with previous estimates.     

The elemental abundances in interplanetary dust particles

Abstract— We compiled a table of all major, minor, and trace-element abundances in 89 interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) that includes data obtained with proton-induced x-ray emission (PIXE), synchroton x-ray fluorescence (SXRF), and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). For the first time, the reliability of the trace-element abundances in IDPs is tested by various crosschecks. We also report on the results of cluster analyses that we performed on IDP compositions. Because of the incompleteness of the data set, we included only the elements Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, and Zn, normalized to Fe and CI chondrite abundances, that are determined in 73 IDPs. The data arrange themselves in four rather poorly defined groups that we discuss in relation to CI chondrites following the assumption that on the average CI abundances are most probable. The largest group (chondritic), with 44 members, has close to CI abundances for many refractory and moderately refractory elements (Na, Al, Si, P, K, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Co, Ge, Sr). It is slightly depleted in Fe and more in Ca and S, while the volatile elements (Cl, Cu, Zn, Ga, Se, Rb) are enriched by =1.7 × CI and Br by 21 × CI. The low-Zn group, with 12 members, is very similar to the chondritic group except for its Zn-depletion, stronger Ca-depletion and Fe-enrichment. The low-Ni group, with 11 members, has Ni/Fe = 0.03 × CI and almost CI-like Ca, but its extraterrestrial origin is not established. The last group (6 members) contains non-systematic particles of unknown origin. We found that Fe is inhomogeneously distributed on a micron scale. Furthermore, the abundances of elements that are measured near their limits of detection are easily overestimated. These biases involved, the incomplete data set and possible contaminating processes prevent us from obtaining information on the specific origin(s) of IDPs from elemental abundances.     

Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies

We start from the observation that climate targets under uncertainty should be interpreted as safety constraints on the probability of crossing a certain threshold, such as 2??C global warming. We then highlight, by ways of a simple example, that cost-effectiveness analysis for such probabilistic targets leads to major conceptual problems if learning about uncertainty is taken into account and the target is fixed. Current target proposals presumably imply that targets should be revised in the light of new information. Taking this into account amounts to formalizing how targets should be chosen, a question that was avoided by cost-effectiveness analysis. One way is to perform a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis including some kind of monetary damage function. We propose multi-criteria decision analysis including a target-based risk metric as an alternative that is more explicite in its assumptions and more closely based on given targets.     

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.     

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.