Destructive near-fault strong ground motion from the 2016 Kumamoto prefecture,Japan, M7.3 earthquake

The sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, which included an initial M6.5 foreshock on April 14, followed by a larger M7.3 mainshock on April 16, and subsequently occurred high aftershock activity, caused significant damage in Kumamoto and neighboring regions. The near-field strong motion record by strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and the intensity meter network demonstrated clearly the characteristics of the strong ground motion developed by the shallow (H = 12 km), inland earthquake comprising short-time duration (<15–20 s) but large (>1G) ground accelerations. The velocity response spectra of the near-fault motion at Mashiki and Nishihara showed large levels (>300–550 cm/s) in the short-period range (T = 1–2 s), several times larger than that of the near-field record of the destructive 1995 Kobe earthquake (M7.3) and that of the 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake (M6.8). This period corresponds to the collapse vulnerability of Japanese wooden-frame houses, and is the major cause of severe damage during the Kumamoto earthquake. The response spectra also showed extremely large levels (>240–340 cm/s) in the long-period (T > 3 s) band, which is potentially disastrous for high-rise buildings, large oil storage tanks, etc. to have longer resonant period. Such long-period motion was, for the most parts, developed by the static displacement of the fault movement rather than by the seismic waves radiating from the source fault. Thus, the extreme near-fault long-period motion was hazardous only close to the fault but it attenuated very rapidly away from the fault.     

Two-dimensional landslide dynamic simulation based on a velocity-weakening friction law

Surprisingly, hypermobility (high velocity and long run-out) is a remarkable feature of large landslides and is still poorly understood. In this paper, a velocity-weakening friction law is incorporated into a depth-averaged landslide model for explaining the higher mobility mechanism of landslides. In order to improve the precision of the calculation, a coupled numerical method based on the finite volume method is proposed to solve the model equations. Finally, several numerical tests are performed to verify the stability of the algorithm and reliability of the model. The comparison between numerical results and experimental data indicates that the presented model can predict the movement of landslide accurately. Considering the effect of velocity-weakening friction law, the presented model can better reflect the hypermobility of landslide than the conventional Mohr–Coulomb friction model. This work shows that the application of a universal velocity-weakening friction law is effective in describing the hypermobility of landslide and predicting the extent of landslides.     

Undrained creep failure of a drainage canal slope stabilized with deep cement mixing columns

This paper presents an analysis of the slope failure of a Suvarnabhumi drainage canal during construction. The Suvarnabhumi drainage canal project includes a large drainage canal with a road on both sides. The width of the bottom of the drainage canal is 48.0 m, the depth of the drainage canal is 3.0 m, and the length of the drainage canal is 10.5 km. Because the project was constructed on very soft Bangkok clay, deep cement mixing (DCM) columns were employed to increase the stability of the excavated canal. The failure of the drainage canal slope occurred 25 days after the end of excavation. The field monitoring data show that lateral movement of the canal slope continuously increased with time, which caused failure due to the instability of the canal slope. The time-dependent deformation and undrained creep behavior of very soft clay was suspected to be the cause of the canal failure. A laboratory investigation of undrained creep behavior and a finite element analysis (FEA) using the soft soil creep (SSC) model were performed to confirm the causes of the canal failure. The results indicate that very soft clay specimens that are subjected to deviator creep stress levels of 70 and 100 % of the peak strength failed by creep rupture within 60 days and 8 min, respectively. The factor of safety for the canal slope, which was obtained from the FEA, shows significant reduction from the initial value of 1.710 to 1.045 within 24 days after the end of excavation due to the effect of undrained creep. This paper also describes a solution method that is applied to a new section of the canal. Field monitoring and an FEA of the new trial section were performed to prove the effectiveness of the solution method.     

Landslide and debris flow initiated characteristics after typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring.     

Comprehensive analyses of the initiation and landslide-generated wave processes of the 24 June 2015 Hongyanzi landslide at the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Reservoir landslides pose a great threat to shipping safety, human lives and properties, and the operation of the hydropower station. In this paper, the 24 June 2015 Hongyanzi landslide at the Three Gorges Reservoir is considered as an example to study the initiation mechanism and landslide-generated wave process of a reservoir landslide. The finite difference method and limit equilibrium analysis are used to analyze the deformation and failure characteristics of the Hongyanzi slope. Simulation results show that a large deformation (about 358 mm) happens in the shallow deposits under intermittent rainfall condition, and the slope is in a limit state. At the same time, continuous rapid drawdown of the water level (about ?0.55 m/day during 8–24 June 2015) reduced the support and accelerated the drainage of the water for the bank slope. A coupling effect of intermittent rainfall and rapid drawdown of the water level was the triggering factor of the 24 June Hongyanzi landslide. Landslide-generated wave process was simulated using a fluid–solid coupling method by integrating the general moving object collision model. Simulation results show that the landslide-generated wave is dominated by the impulse wave, which is generated by sliding masses entering the river with high speed. The maximum wave height is about 5.90 m, and the wave would decay gradually as it spreads because of friction and energy dissipation. To prevent reservoir landslides, the speed for the rising or drawdown of the water level should be controlled, and most importantly, rapid drawdown should be avoided.     

Present-day oxidative subsidence of organic soils and mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

Subsidence of organic soils in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta threatens sustainability of the California (USA) water supply system and agriculture. Land-surface elevation data were collected to assess present-day subsidence rates and evaluate rice as a land use for subsidence mitigation. To depict Delta-wide present-day rates of subsidence, the previously developed SUBCALC model was refined and calibrated using recent data for CO₂ emissions and land-surface elevation changes measured at extensometers. Land-surface elevation change data were evaluated relative to indirect estimates of subsidence and accretion using carbon and nitrogen flux data for rice cultivation. Extensometer and leveling data demonstrate seasonal variations in land-surface elevations associated with groundwater-level fluctuations and inelastic subsidence rates of 0.5–0.8 cm yr^–1. Calibration of the SUBCALC model indicated accuracy of ±0.10 cm yr^–1 where depth to groundwater, soil organic matter content and temperature are known. Regional estimates of subsidence range from <0.3 to >1.8 cm yr^–1. The primary uncertainty is the distribution of soil organic matter content which results in spatial averaging in the mapping of subsidence rates. Analysis of leveling and extensometer data in rice fields resulted in an estimated accretion rate of 0.02–0.8 cm yr^–1. These values generally agreed with indirect estimates based on carbon fluxes and nitrogen mineralization, thus preliminarily demonstrating that rice will stop or greatly reduce subsidence. Areas below elevations of –2 m are candidate areas for implementation of mitigation measures such as rice because there is active subsidence occurring at rates greater than 0.4 cm yr^–1.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Engineering geomorphological characterisation of the Vajont Slide,Italy, and a new interpretation of the chronology and evolution of the landslide

Although the 1963 Vajont Slide in Italy has been extensively studied for over 50 years, its regional geological and geomorphological context has been neglected. In this paper, we use field observations and remote sensing data to elucidate the interaction between endogenic and exogenic processes that brought the north slope of Monte Toc to failure. We present the first detailed pre- and post-failure engineering geomorphology maps of the slide area. The maps delineate two main landslide blocks, several sub-blocks, compressional and extensional zones, and secondary failures in the deposit. The maps provide new insights into the kinematics, dynamics and evolution of the slide. Finally, we discuss the origin of Vajont Gorge and a prehistoric failure that occurred at the same location as the 1963 slide. We propose, as part of a newly developed multi-stage landscape evolution sequence, that the prehistoric failure was a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (sackung) that initiated during deglaciation and continued to slowly move until the catastrophic failure in 1963. We argue that the gorge was created by these deep-seated slow movements.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.