Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

Development of large‐scale seismites in Upper Cretaceous fluvial sandstones in a fault‐proximal setting

Large‐scale soft‐sediment deformation structures occur within fluvial sandstone bodies of the Upper Cretaceous Wahweap Formation in the Kaiparowits basin, southern Utah, USA. These structures represent an exceptional example of metre‐scale fault‐proximal, seismogenic load structures in nearly homogenous sandstones. The load structures consist of two types: large‐scale load casts and wedge‐shaped load structures. Large‐scale load casts penetrate up to 4·5 m into the underlying sandstone bed. Wedge‐shaped load structures include metre‐scale, parallel, sub‐vertical features and decimetre‐scale features along the periphery of the large‐scale load casts or other wedge‐shaped load structures. Wedge‐shaped load structures contain well‐developed, medial cataclastic shear deformation bands. All load structures contain pervasive well‐defined millimetre‐thick to centimetre‐thick internal laminae, oriented parallel to the outside form of the load structures and asymptotic to deformation bands. Both types of load structures formed because of an inverted density profile, earthquake‐triggered liquefaction and growth of irregularities (a Rayleigh–Taylor instability) on the sandstone–sandstone erosional contact. The internal laminae and deformation bands formed during deformation and clearly demonstrate polyphase deformation, recording a transition from liquefied to hydroplastic to brittle modes of deformation. Decimetre‐scale wedge‐shaped load structures on the edge of the large‐scale load casts probably formed towards the end of a seismic event after the sediment dewatered and increased the frictional contact of grains enough to impart strength to the sands. Metre‐scale wedge‐shaped load structures were created as the tips of downward foundering sediments were driven into fractures, which widened incrementally with seismic pulsation. With each widening of the fracture, gravity and a suction effect would draw additional sediment into the fracture. Superimposed laminae indicate a secondary syndeformational origin for internal laminae, probably by flow‐generated shearing and vibrofluidization mechanisms. Large‐scale and wedge‐shaped load structures, polyphase deformation and secondary laminae may characterize soft‐sediment deformation in certain fault‐proximal settings.     

Searching for Added Value in Simulating Climate Extremes with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model over Western Canada

We evaluate the capacity of a regional climate model to represent observed extreme temperature and precipitation events and also examine the impact of increased resolution, in an effort to identify added value in this respect. Two climate simulations of western Canada (WCan) were conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4) at 15 (CRCM15) and 45?km (CRCM45) horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40) for the period 1973–1995. The simulations were evaluated using the spline-interpolated dataset ANUSPLIN, a daily observational gridded surface temperature and precipitation product with a nominal resolution of approximately 10?km. We examine a range of climate extremes, comprising the 10th and 90th percentiles of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures, the 90th percentile of daily precipitation (PR90), and the 27 core Climate Daily Extremes (CLIMDEX) indices.

Both simulations exhibit cold biases compared with observations over WCan, with the bias exacerbated at higher resolution, suggesting little added value for temperature overall. There are instances, however, of regional improvement in the spatial pattern of temperature extremes at the higher resolution of CRCM15 (e.g., the CLIMDEX index for the annual number of days when TX?>?25°C). The high-resolution simulations also reveal similarly localized features in precipitation (e.g., rain shadows) that are not resolved at the 45?km resolution. With regard to precipitation extremes, although both simulations generally display wet biases, CRCM15 features a reduced bias in PR90 in all seasons except winter. This improvement occurs despite the fact that spatial and interannual variability of PR90 in CRCM15 is significantly overestimated relative to both CRCM45 and ANUSPLIN. We posit that these characteristics are the result of demonstrable differences between corresponding topographical datasets used in the gridded observations and CRCM, the resulting errors propagated to physical variables tied to elevation and the beneficial effect of subsequent spatial averaging. Because topographical input is often discordant between simulations and gridded observations, it is argued that a limited form of spatial averaging may contribute added value beyond that which has already been noted in previous studies with respect to small-scale climate variability.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.     

A robust mesh optimisation method for multiphase porous media flows

Flows of multiple fluid phases are common in many subsurface reservoirs. Numerical simulation of these flows can be challenging and computationally expensive. Dynamic adaptive mesh optimisation and related approaches, such as adaptive grid refinement can increase solution accuracy at reduced computational cost. However, in models or parts of the model domain, where the local Courant number is large, the solution may propagate beyond the region in which the mesh is refined, resulting in reduced solution accuracy, which can never be recovered. A methodology is presented here to modify the mesh within the non-linear solver. The method allows efficient application of dynamic mesh adaptivity techniques even with high Courant numbers. These high Courant numbers may not be desired but a consequence of the heterogeneity of the domain. Therefore, the method presented can be considered as a more robust and accurate version of the standard dynamic mesh adaptivity techniques.     

Quantitative 3D imaging of partially saturated granular materials under uniaxial compression

Acta Geotechnica - Gauging the mechanical effect of partial saturation in granular materials is experimentally challenging due to the very low suctions resulting from large pores. To this end, a...