Multi-criteria spatial screening and uncertainty analysis applied to direct-use geothermal projects

ABSTRACT

The focus of this work is general methods for prioritization or screening of project sites based on the favorability of multiple spatial criteria. We present a threshold-based transformation of each underlying spatial favorability factor into a continuous scale with a common favorability interpretation across all criteria. We compare several methods of computing site favorability and propagating uncertainty from the data to the favorability metrics. Including uncertainty allows decision makers to determine if seeming differences among sites are significant. We address uncertainty using Taylor series approximations and analytical distributions, which are compared to computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our methods are applied to siting direct-use geothermal energy projects in the Appalachian Basin, where our knowledge about any particular site is limited, yet sufficient data exist to estimate favorability. We consider four factors that contribute to site favorability: the thermal resource described by the depth to 80°C rock, natural reservoir productivity described by rock permeability and thickness, potential for induced seismicity, and the estimated cost of surface infrastructure for heat distribution. Those factors are combined in three ways. We develop favorability uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methods. All methods are general and can be applied to other multi-criteria spatial screening problems.     

A quantification of the standing stock of macro-debris in Majuro lagoon and its effect on hard coral communities

The accumulation of debris is an insidious problem throughout the world’s oceans. Here we document 234.24 items of macro-debris/km² in the shallow populated parts of Majuro lagoon (Republic of the Marshall Islands) which is the second highest standing stock of macro-debris recorded to date in any benthic marine habitat in the world. The majority of macro-debris was from household sources (78.7%) with the peak abundance recorded in areas of medium affluence. Marine debris causes suffocation, shading, tissue abrasion and mortality of corals and we show a significant negative correlation exists between the level of hard coral cover and coverage of marine debris. Given long decomposition times, even if the input of rubbish to Majuro lagoon is stopped immediately, the standing stock of debris will persist for centuries. Multiple new initiatives are needed to curtail the direct and indirect dumping of waste in Majuro lagoon.     

Some potassium‐argon ages in New England,New South Wales

The results of potassium‐argon measurements are reported. Three samples from the southern end of the New England bathylith confirm its Permian age (240–245 m.y.). Two samples of the “pre‐Permian” granites are not younger than Lower Permian (Hillgrove, 270 m.y.; Barrington Tops, 260 m.y.). A sample of the analcite basalt from Spring Mountain gave an Oligocene age (34 m.y.) by measurements on two separate minerals.     

The geology and geochemistry of the Lumwana Cu (± Co ± U) deposits, NW Zambia

The Lumwana Cu (± Co ± U) deposits of NW Zambia are large, tabular, disseminated ore bodies, hosted within the Mwombezhi Dome of the Lufilian Arc. The host rocks to the Lumwana deposits are two mineralogically similar but texturally distinct gneisses, a granitic to pegmatitic gneiss and a banded to augen gneiss which both comprise quartz–feldspar ± biotite ± muscovite ± haematite ± amphibole and intervening quartz–feldspar ± biotite schist. The sulphide ore horizons are typically developed within a biotite–muscovite–quartz–kyanite schist, although mineralization locally occurs within internal gneiss units. Contacts between the ore and host rocks are transitional and characterized by a loss of feldspar. Kinematic indicators, such as S-C fabrics and pressure shadows on porphyroblasts, suggest a top to the north shear sense. The sulphides are deformed by a strong shear fabric, enclosed within kyanite or concentrated into low strain zones and pressure shadows around kyanite porphyroblasts. This suggests that the copper mineralization was introduced either syn- or pre-peak metamorphism. In addition to Cu and Co, the ores are also characterized by enrichments in U, V, Ni, Ba and S and small, discrete zones of uranium mineralization, occur adjacent to the hanging wall and footwall of the copper ore bodies or in the immediate footwall to the copper mineralization. Unlike typical Copperbelt mineralization, unmineralized units show very low background copper values. Whole rock geochemical analyses of the interlayered schist and ore schist, compared to the gneiss, show depletions in Ca, Na and Sr and enrichments in Mg and K, consistent with replacement of feldspar by biotite. The mineral chemistry of muscovite, biotite and chlorite reflect changes in the bulk rock chemistry and show consistent increases in X _Mg as the schists develop. δ³⁴S for copper sulphides range from +2.3?‰ to +18.5?‰, with pyrite typically restricted to values between +3.9?‰ and +6.2?‰. These values are atypical of sulphides precipitated by bacteriogenic sulphate reduction. δ³⁴S data for Chimiwungo (Cu + Co) show a broader range and increased δ³⁴S values compared to the Malundwe (Cu) mineralization. The Lumwana deposits show many characteristics which distinguish them from classical Copperbelt mineralization and which suggests that they are formed by metasomatic alteration, mineralization and shearing of pre-Katangan basement. Although this style of mineralization is reported elsewhere in the Copperbelt, sometimes associated with the more widely reported stratiform ores of the Lower Roan, none of the previously reported occurrences have so far developed the tonnages of ore reported at Lumwana.