Revealing the energy sources of alternating intensity regimes of the evolving Alberto tropical cyclone using microwave satellite sensing data

The trajectory characteristics and the intensity evolution of the Alberto tropical cyclone (TC) in the integral water-vapor field are analyzed in detail using a software-algorithmic complex designed for constructing highly detailed global radio-thermal fields of the ocean-atmosphere system based on microwave satellite measurements. This complex was developed by the authors earlier and allows one to obtain global animated radio-thermal fields with a time step of 1.5 h and a spatial resolution of 0.2°. Special attention is paid to the problem of revealing the energy sources of three consecutive intensifications of this TC. The analysis of satellite data with the use of the animation method developed by the authors shows for the first time that these sources are regions with an increased (exceeding the critical level) integral water-vapor content located in different geographical areas lying along the complex trajectory of the TC with a variable intensity. The first region was located in the equatorial intertropical convergence zone, the second was located above the Gulf Stream water area, and the third resided in the area affected by the Azores High.     

Trace elements in organic- and iron-rich surficial fluids of the boreal zone: Assessing colloidal forms via dialysis and ultrafiltration

On-site size fractionation of about 40 major and trace elements (TE) was performed on waters from boreal small rivers and their estuaries in the Karelia region of North-West Russia around the “Vetreny Belt” mountain range and in Paanajärvi National Park (Northern Karelia). Samples were filtered in the field using a progressively decreasing pore size (5 μm, 2.5 (3) μm, 0.22 (0.45) μm, 100 kDa, 10 and 1 kDa) by means of frontal filtration and ultrafiltration (UF) techniques and employing in-situ dialysis with 10 and 1 kDa membranes followed by ICP-MS analysis. For most samples, dialysis yields a systematically higher (factor of 2-3) proportion of colloidal forms compared to UF. Nevertheless, dialysis is able to provide a fast and artefact-free in-situ separation of colloidal and dissolved components.Similar to previous studies in European subarctic zones, poor correlation of iron concentration with that of organic carbon (OC) in (ultra)filtrates and dialysates reflect the presence of two pools of colloids composed of organic-rich and Fe-rich particles. All major anions and silica are present as dissolved species (or solutes) passing through the 1-kDa membrane. Size-separation ultrafiltration experiments show the existence of larger or smaller pools of colloidal particles different for each of the considered elements.The effect of rock lithology (acidic versus basic) on the colloidal speciation of TE is seen solely in the increase of Fe and some accompanying TE concentrations in catchment areas dominated by basic rocks compared to granitic catchments. Neither the ultrafiltration pattern nor the relative proportions of colloidal versus truly dissolved TE are affected by the lithology of the underlying rocks: within ±10% uncertainty, the two colloidal (10 kDa-0.22 μm and 1-10 kDa) and the truly dissolved (<1 kDa) pools show no difference in percentage of TE distribution between two types of bedrock lithology. The same conclusion is held for organic- and Fe-rich waters. In contrast, landscape context analysis demonstrated slight dominance, for most TE affected by UF, of large-size colloids (10 kDa-0.22 μm) in rivers and streams and small-size colloids and truly dissolved fractions in swamp stagnant surface waters. This supports the existence of two pathways of colloids formation: during the plant litter degradation in wetland zones and at the redox front in river riparian zone.     

Influence of calibration methodology on ground water flow predictions

We constructed a numerical model of transient ground water flow and solute transport for a portion of the Biscayne Aquifer in Florida, and calibrated the model with three different combinations of data from a 193-day period: head (h) data alone, data on h and ground water discharge to a canal (q), and data on h, q, and ground water chloride concentration (C). We used each of the three calibrated models to predict h and q during a 182-day test period separate from the calibration period. All three calibrated models predicted h equally well during the test period (r = 0.95, where r = 1 indicates perfect agreement between measured and simulated values), though the model calibrated on h alone had significantly different parameter values than the other two models. Predictions of q during the test period depended on calibration methodology; models calibrated with multiple targets simulated q more accurately than the model calibrated on h alone (r = 0.79 compared to r = 0.49). Based on the results of these simulations, we conclude: (1) Post-calibration prediction is important in assessing the value of different data types in automated calibration; (2) inverse-solution uniqueness is not a requirement for accurate h predictions; (3) relatively simple models can predict with reasonable accuracy transient ground water flow in a complex aquifer, and parameters governing this prediction can be estimated by nonlinear regression methods that incorporate both h and q data; (4) addition of C data to the calibration did not improve model predictive capacity because the information in the C data was similar to that in the q data, from the perspective of model calibration (the subsurface chemical signal in question was controlled mainly by seepage of high-chloride canal water into the low-chloride ground water system).     

ON ERRORS OF FIT AND ACCURACY IN MATCHING SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS AND SEISMIC TRACES*

A synthetic seismogram that closely resembles a seismic trace recorded at a well may not be at all reliable for, say, stratigraphic interpretation around the well. The most accurate synthetic seismogram is, in general, not the one that displays the smallest errors of fit to the trace but the one that best estimates the noise on the trace. If the match is confined to a short interval of interest or if the seismic reflection wavelet is allowed to be unduly long, there is considerable danger of forcing a spurious fit that treats the noise on the trace as part of the seismic reflection signal instead of making a genuine match with the signal itself. This paper outlines tests that allow an objective and quantitative evaluation of the accuracy of any match and illustrates their application with practical examples. The accuracy of estimation is summarized by the normalized mean square error (NMSE) in the estimated reflection signal, which is shown to be (/n)(P_N/P_S) where P_S/P_N is the signal-to-noise power ratio and n is the spectral smoothing factor. That is, the accuracy varies directly with the ratio of the power in the signal (taken to be the synthetic) to that in the noise on the seismic trace, and the smoothing acts to improve the accuracy of the predicted signal. The construction of confidence intervals for the NMSE is discussed. Guidelines for the choice of the spectral smoothing factor n are given. The variation of wavelet shape due to different realizations of the noise component is illustrated, and the use of confidence intervals on wavelet phase is recommended. Tests are described for examining the normality and stationarity of the errors of fit and their independence of the estimated reflection signal.     

Numerical inversion of deformation caused by pressure sources: application to Mount Etna (Italy)

The interpretation of geodetic data in volcanic areas is usually based on analytical deformation models. Although numerical finite element (FE) modelling allows realistic features such as topography and crustal heterogeneities to be included, the technique is not computationally convenient for solving inverse problems using classical methods. In this paper, we develop a general tool to perform inversions of geodetic data by means of 3-D FE models. The forward model is a library of numerical displacement solutions, where each entry of the library is the surface displacement due to a single stress component applied to an element of the grid. The final solution is a weighted combination of the six stress components applied to a single element-source. The pre-computed forward models are implemented in a global search algorithm, followed by an appraisal of the sampled solutions. After providing extended testing, we apply the method to model the 1993–1997 inflation phase at Mt Etna, documented by GPS and EDM measurements. We consider four different forward libraries, computed in models characterized by homogeneous/heterogeneous medium and flat/topographic free surface. Our results suggest that the elastic heterogeneities of the medium can significantly alter the position of the inferred source, while the topography has minor effect.     

The persistence of lead from past gasoline emissions and mining drainage in a large riparian system: Evidence from lead isotopes in the Sacramento River, California

Lead concentrations and isotope ratios measured in river water colloids and streambed sediment samples along 426 km of the Sacramento River, California reveal that the influence of lead from the historical mining of massive sulfide deposits in the West Shasta Cu-mining district (at the headwaters of the Sacramento River) is confined to a 60 km stretch of river immediately downstream of that mining region, whereas inputs from past leaded gasoline emissions and historical hydraulic Au-mining in the Sierra Nevadan foothills are the dominant lead sources in the remaining 370 km of the river. Binary mixing calculations suggest that more than 50% of the lead in the Sacramento River outside of the region of influence of the West Shasta Cu-mining district is derived from past depositions of leaded gasoline emissions. This predominance is the first direct documentation of the geographic extent of gasoline lead persistence throughout a large riparian system (>160,000 km²) and corroborates previous observations based on samples taken at the mouth of the Sacramento River. In addition, new analyses of sediment samples from the hydraulic gold mines of the Sierra Nevada foothills confirm the present-day fluxes into the Sacramento River of contaminant metals derived from historical hydraulic Au-mining that occurred during the latter half of the 19th and early part of the 20th centuries. These fluxes occur predominantly during periods of elevated river discharge associated with heavy winter precipitation in northern California. In the broadest context, the study demonstrates the potential for altered precipitation patterns resulting from climate change to affect the mobility and transport of soil-bound contaminants in the surface environment.