Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Seasonal variations in river discharge and nutrient export to a Northeastern Pacific estuary

Seasonal variations in dissolved nitrogen and silica loadings were related to seasonal variability in river discharge. Dissolved nutrient concentrations measured weekly at three stations in the Yaquina River, Oregon from 1999 through 2001, and then monthly in 2002 were used as the basis for developing a nutrient loading regression as part of a larger agency program for evaluating nutrient processes. Because realistic models of nutrient transport require dense data sets to capture both long and short term fluctuations in nutrient concentrations, data at one freshwater station also were collected hourly for the same years using an in-stream monitor.The effects of storm events on dissolved nutrient transport were examined during three storms, including one in a high rainfall-discharge year, and two in average years, one of which followed a drought year. During the drought year (WY2001), total dissolved nitrate input was considerably less than in wetter years. Dissolved nitrate concentrations, however, were unusually high in the first winter storm runoff after the drought. The freshwater dissolved nitrate nitrogen loads varied from 40,380 kg day⁻¹ during a high-flow storm event to 0.11 kg day⁻¹ during late summer, low flow conditions. Dissolved silica dynamics differed from those of nitrate because during storm events, silica concentrations in the Yaquina River decreased to near zero at the storm height, probably due to dilution by near surface or overland flow, and later recovered.During the time interval studied, over 94% of the dissolved nitrate and silica were transported from the watershed during the winter months of greater rainfall, indicating that seasonality and river flow are primary factors when considering nutrient loadings from this watershed system.     

Parametric integral model of the wind disturbance concerted with the All-Union wave constructional standards and regulations (CSR)

In a modern statement, the concept of a parametric integral model consists of integration of the energy balance equation (or wind forcing) over the frequency. The angular distribution of the energy and the frequency spectrum are prescribed. The equation is solved by the numerical method taking into consideration the energy advection and its local pumping with the assigned wind field varying in time and space. To calculate the swell waves one can employ the well-known Longuet-Higgins theorem on the invariance of a two-dimensional spectrum. or the ray discrete technique.UDK 551.466.315Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Seismic evidence for pervasive deformation of oceanic sediments in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic

Seismic reflection profiles from the equatorial Atlantic off Africa between 12°N and 1°N reveal remarkably widespread deformation of oceanic sediments in an area lacking teleseismic activity. Uplift of abyssal plain sequences has occurred along the eastern extensions of large-offset fracture zones on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Between the major transforms pervasive deformation is imaged in the sedimentary column. Diapirism and faulting may have been associated with extensive fluid migration and sediment mobilization. The deformation occurred during the late Cenozoic and was probably related to reactivation of Cretaceous transforms.     

Manganese and iron distributions off central California influenced by upwelling and shelf width

In July 2002, a combination of underway mapping and discrete profiles revealed significant along-shore variability in the concentrations of manganese and iron in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, California. Both metals had lower concentrations in surface waters south of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 2.5 km wide, than north of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 10 km wide. During non-upwelling conditions over the northern broad shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations measured underway in surface waters reached 3.5 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese reached 25 nmol L⁻¹. In contrast, during non-upwelling conditions over the southern narrow shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations in surface waters were less than 1 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese concentrations were less than 5 nmol L⁻¹. A pair of vertical profiles at 1000 m water depth collected during an upwelling event showed dissolved manganese concentrations of 10 decreasing to 2 nmol L⁻¹, and dissolvable iron concentrations of 12–20 nmol L⁻¹ in the upper 100 m in the north, compared to 3.5–2 nmol L⁻¹ Mn and 0.6 nmol L⁻¹ Fe in the upper 100 m in the south, suggesting the effect of shelf width influences the chemistry of waters beyond the shelf.These observations are consistent with current understanding of the mechanism of iron supply to coastal upwelling systems: Iron from shelf sediments, predominantly associated with particles greater than 20 μm, is brought to the surface during upwelling conditions. We hypothesize that manganese oxides are brought to the surface with upwelling and are then reduced to dissolved manganese, perhaps by photoreduction, following a lag after upwelling.Greater phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and nutrient drawdown were observed over the broad shelf, consistent with the greater supply of iron. Incubation experiments conducted 20 km offshore in both regions, during a period of wind relaxation, confirm the potential of these sites to become limited by iron. There was no additional growth response when copper, manganese or cobalt was added in addition to iron. The growth response of surface water incubated with bottom sediment (4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolvable Fe) was slightly greater than in control incubations, but less than in the presence of 4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolved iron. This may indicate that dissolvable iron is not as bioavailable as dissolved iron, although the influence of additional inhibitory elements in the sediment cannot be ruled out.     

Cross-Calibration and Long-Term Monitoring of the Microwave Radiometers of ERS, TOPEX, GFO, Jason, and Envisat

The radiometers on board the satellites ERS-1, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2, GFO, Jason-1, and Envisat measure brightness temperatures at two or three different frequencies to determine the total columnal water vapor content and wet tropospheric path delay, a major correction to the altimeter range measurements. In order to asses the long-term stability of the path delay, the radiometers are calibrated against vicarious cold and hot references, against each other, and against several atmospheric models. Four of these radiometers exhibit significant drifts in at least one of the channels, resulting in yet unmodeled errors in path delay of up to 1 mm/year, thus limiting the accuracy at which global sea level rise can be inferred from the altimeter range measurements.