Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney,Australia

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.     

Hydrodynamical models of type II supernovae

A series of hydrodynamical models of type-II supernova outbursts (SNII) has been calculated. Approximate relations connecting the total outburst energy ε, the mass of envelope ejectedM, the presupernova radiusR, and the amount of ionizing quanta radiated by the supernovaeN _H with such values as the duration of the light curve plateau Δt, and absolute magnitude in the wavelength bandV and photospheric velocityU _PH observed near the middle of the plateau have been established. Advantage has been taken of the relations to obtain a preliminary evaluation for the characteristics of the average SN II: ε=7×10⁵⁰ erg,M=6M _⊙,R=500R _⊙,N _H=2×10⁵⁸. The SNIIs with plateau-like light curves seem to be accounted for by thermonuclear explosions of degenerate cores of red giant stars and result in a total disruption of the star without any stellar remnant. To the contrary, SNIIs with linear light curves have substantially different properties (in particular, they throw considerably less massive envelopes off). These SNII must signify the birth of collapsed objects—neutron stars (pulsars) or black holes.     

Some consequences of meteoroid impacts on Saturn's rings

High-velocity impacts of interplanetary meteoroids on Saturn's rings are discussed. It is shown that the neutral gas emitted by impact vaporization may be responsible, to a large part, for the observed neutral ring atmosphere. Both the predicted neutral gas injection rate and the gas temperature (or kinetic energy) are compatible with the measurements (see Broadfoot, A. L., B. R. Sandel, D. E. Shemansky, J. B. Holberg, G. R. Smith, D. F. Strobel, J. C. McConnell, S. Kumar, D. M. Hunten, S. K. Atreya, T. M. Dohnahne, H. W. Moos, J. L. Bertaux, J. E. Blamont, R. B. Pomphrey, and S. Linik, Science212, 206–211, 1981). Heavy ejecta particles produce a particulate ring “halo”. The physical properties of this halo are calculated, and it appears to be identical with the tenous particle population discussed by Baum and Kreidl (1982). Erosion of Saturn's ring particles, the resulting mass balance, and regolith formation are estimated. This provides some constraints on surface properties and optical albedo.     

Observation of chromospheric evaporation during the solar maximum mission

A sample of flares detected in 1980 with the Bent Crystal Spectrometer and the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission satellite has been analysed to study the upward motions of part of the soft X-ray emitting plasma. These motions are inferred from the presence of secondary blue-shifted lines in the Ca XIX and Fe XXV spectral regions during the impulsive phase of disk flares. Limb flares do not show such blue-shifted lines indicating that the direction of the plasma motion is mainly radial and outward. The temporal association of these upward motions with the rise of the thermal phase and with the impulsive hard X-ray burst, as well as considerations of the plasma energetics, favour the interpretation of this phenomenon in terms of chromospheric evaporation. The two measureable parameters of the evaporating plasma, emission measure and velocity, depend on parameters related to the energy deposition and to the thermal phase. The evaporation velocity is found to be correlated with the spectral index of the hard X-ray flux and with the rise time of the thermal emission measure of the coronal plasma. The emission measure of the rising plasma is found to be correlated with the total energy deposited by the fast electrons in the chromosphere by collisions during the impulsive phase and with the maximum emission measure of the coronal plasma.     

Observation of the flare of 12 June 1982 by Norikura coronagraph and Hinotori

Flare activity was observed near the limb with two coronagraphs at the Norikura Solar Observatory and the Soft X-ray Crystal Spectrometer (SOX) aboard HINOTORI. A prominence activation occurred and then Hα brightenings were seen on the disk near the prominence. The prominence became very bright and its electron density increased to 10^12.8 cm^?3 in 1/2 hour. Loop prominence systems appeared above the Hα brightenings about half an hour after the onset of the flare, and were observed in the coronal lines CaXV 5694Å, FeXIV 5303Å, and FeX 6374Å. Shifted and asymmetric profiles of the emission line of 5303Å were sometimes observed, and turbulent phenomena occurred even in the thermal phase. The energy release site of the flare at the onset would be lower than 20 000 km above the solar limb.     

Evolution of electron and proton temperatures in a flaring loop

We have investigated numerically how a temperature difference between electrons and protons is produced in a flaring loop by adopting a one-fluid, two-temperature model instead of a single-temperature model. We have treated a case in which flare energy is released in the form of heating of electrons located in the top part of the loop.In this case, a large temperature difference (T _e/T _p 10) appears in the corona in the energy-input phase of the flare. When the material evaporated from the chromosphere fills the corona, the temperature difference in the loop begins to shrink rapidly from below. Eventually, in the loop apex, the proton temperature exceeds the electron temperature mainly due to cooling of the electrons by conduction down the loop and heating of the protons by compression of the ascending material. In the late phase of the flare (t 15 min from the flare onset), the temperature difference becomes less than 2% of the mean temperature of electrons and protons at every point in the loop.     

Preliminary observations of solar radio sources with the Culgoora radioheliograph operating at four frequencies

The Culgoora radioheliograph has been modified for observing at 327.4 MHz, which is in addition to the three frequencies (43.25, 80, and 160 MHz) previously available. At the new frequency the array beamwidth is 56, which represents the highest resolution yet available for metre-wavelength solar mapping.At 327.4 MHz the sources of radio emission are mainly in the lowest layers of the corona. Some preliminary four-frequency observations have been made of type I storms. It is found that the source size generally decreases with increasing observing frequency. This result confirms earlier suggestions that the sources of both type I and type III emission are contained in structures whose boundaries diverge outwards in the corona.     

Microwave and hard X-Ray observations of a solar flare with a time resolution better than 100 ms

Simultaneous microwave and X-ray observations are presented for a solar flare detected on May 8, 1980 starting at 19:37 UT. The X-ray observations were made with the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission and covered the energy range from 28–490 keV with a time resolution of 10 ms. The microwave observations were made with the 5 and 45 foot antennas at the Itapetinga Radio Observatory at frequencies of 7 and 22 GHz, with time resolutions of 100 ms and 1 ms, respectively. Detailed correlation analysis of the different time profiles of the event show that the major impulsive peaks in the X-ray flux preceded the corresponding microwave peaks at 22 GHz by about 240 ms. For this particular burst the 22 GHz peaks preceded the 7 GHz by about 1.5 s. Observed delays of the microwave peaks are too large for a simple electron beam model but they can be reconciled with the speeds of shock waves in a thermal model.     

Quaternary fault segmentation and interaction in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), Vallo di Diano, southern Apennines, Italy

The main structural characteristics of the Caggiano and Polla faults, exposed in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), southern Italy, have been investigated in detail to assess their spatial and temporal properties, and to evaluate their seismogenic potential. These right stepping normal faults show an overlap of about 7 km and an across strike separation of about 4 km. The geometric relationships between the Caggiano and Polla faults, but also the displacement distribution along each fault, demonstrate that they have been strongly interacting throughout the Pleistocene. Nevertheless, geological evidence of Holocene tectonic activity was mainly recognized along the Caggiano Fault (faulted late glacial deposits) and in the southernmost part of the Polla Fault (faulted deposits of probably Late Pleistocene age). This suggests that the Caggiano Fault can be considered as the most tectonically active fault in the Vallo di Diano Fault System. By calculating Coulomb stress changes, we have constrained modes of mechanical interactions between the two faults in a scenario compatible with the 1561 earthquake. This approach allows us to argue that both the Caggiano and the Polla Faults are probably linked at depth, and part of the same seismogenic structure which may be potentially responsible for composite ruptures with magnitude ≥ 6.5.     

Trace element distribution among rock-forming minerals from metamorphosed to partially molten basic igneous rocks in a contact aureole (Fuerteventura, Canaries)

Low pressure partial melting of basanitic and ankaramitic dykes gave rise to unusual, zebra-like migmatites, in the contact aureole of a layered pyroxenite–gabbro intrusion, in the root zone of an ocean island (Basal Complex, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands). These migmatites are characterised by a dense network of closely spaced, millimetre-wide leucocratic segregations. Their mineralogy consists of plagioclase (An_32–36), diopside, biotite, oxides (magnetite, ilmenite), +/− amphibole, dominated by plagioclase in the leucosome and diopside in the melanosome. The melanosome is almost completely recrystallised, with the preservation of large, relict igneous diopside phenocrysts in dyke centres. Comparison of whole-rock and mineral major- and trace-element data allowed us to assess the redistribution of elements between different mineral phases and generations during contact metamorphism and partial melting.

Dykes within and outside the thermal aureole behaved like closed chemical systems. Nevertheless, Zr, Hf, Y and REEs were internally redistributed, as deduced by comparing the trace element contents of the various diopside generations. Neocrystallised diopside – in the melanosome, leucosome and as epitaxial phenocryst rims – from the migmatite zone, are all enriched in Zr, Hf, Y and REEs compared to relict phenocrysts. This has been assigned to the liberation of trace elements on the breakdown of enriched primary minerals, kaersutite and sphene, on entering the thermal aureole. Major and trace element compositions of minerals in migmatite melanosomes and leucosomes are almost identical, pointing to a syn- or post-solidus reequilibration on the cooling of the migmatite terrain i.e. mineral–melt equilibria were reset to mineral–mineral equilibria.