Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Variable interstellar absorption lines: a brief review

I review the recent discoveries of variable interstellar absorption lines, widely taken to imply the existence of very small scale(10–100 AU) structure in the interstellar medium. Possible origins of this structure are discussed, and attention is drawn to the fact that most known examples seem to be associated with interstellar shells and bubbles of various kinds. On the other hand, in at least one case (κ Velorum),the variation appears to occur in the supposedly quiescent cold neutral medium, consistent with earlier studies of small scale structure in atomic hydrogen probed at radio wavelengths. Further work is urgently required to determine the prevalence, mode of formation, and the physical and chemical state of these enigmatic structures. Only then will their implications for our wider understanding of the interstellar medium become apparent. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Gravitational collapse and equilibrium conditions of a toroidal vortex with thermal pressure

We found the equilibrium conditions for a self-gravitating toroidal vortex by taking thermal pressure into account. These conditions are shown to significantly differ from those for a disk or a sphere. The evolution of a thin vortex turns it into a compact vortex that loses mechanical stability for low masses at a polytropic index γ<4/3 but retains stability for sufficiently high masses and densities determined by the velocity circulation in the vortex.     

Properties of star formation in the spiral arms of barred galaxies

It is assumed that the two-fold disc-wide symmetry of spirals is caused by density waves, but also the potential of a bar component may have a significant influence on structural properties. The strength of the bar component appears to be anti-correlated with the degree of symmetry of star-forming regions in the spiral arms (Rozas et al., 1998). We present new results of R and Hα surface photometry of a sample of bright barred spirals. A photometric decompositon of the galaxy components is carried out in order to make a more accurate measurement of the strength of the bar and its interrelation to gas and stars in the disc. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Kaidun meteorite: Clasts of alkaline‐rich fractionated materials

Abstract— Clasts of alkaline (the second find in meteorites) and subalkaline rocks were found in the Kaidun meteorite. One of them (#d4A) is a large crystal of albite with inclusions of fluorapatite, arfvedsonite, aenigmatite, and wilkinsonite. The two latter minerals were previously unknown in meteorites. Another clast (#d[3–5]D) has a melt crystallization texture of mainly feldspar (oligoclase) composition and contains relict grains of both high‐Ca and low‐Ca pyroxene and fluorapatite. The mineralogical characteristics of these clasts suggest a genetic relationship and an origin from the same parent body. The textural and mineralogical characteristics of the clasts indicate origin by extensive igneous differentiation. Such processes most likely took place in a rather large differentiated body. The material of clast #d(3–5)D is similar in some mineralogical respects to basaltic shergottites.     

Cepheid Limb Darkening Models for the VLTI

We present a new method to compute wavelength- and phase-dependent limb darkening corrections for classical Cepheids. These corrections are derived from hydrodynamic simulations and radiative transfer modeling with a full set of atomic and molecular opacities. Comparison with hydrostatic models having the same stellar parameters show a larger limb darkening for most phases in our models, and temporal variations related to the hydrodynamics of the stellar pulsation. Weassess the implications of our results with respect to the geometric Baade-Wesselink method, which uses interferometric measurements of Cepheid angular diameters to determine their distances and radii. The relevance of the hydrodynamic effects predicted by our model on the limb darkening of pulsating Cepheids is finally discussed in terms of the predicted capabilities of the VLTI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Giant Meterwave Radio Telescope observations of an M2.8 flare: Insights into the initiation of a flare–coronal mass ejection event

We present the first observations of a solar flare with the GMRT. An M2.8 flare observed at 1060 MHz with the GMRT on 17 November 2001 was associated with a prominence eruption observed at 17 GHz by the Nobeyama radioheliograph and the initiation of a fast partial halo CME observed with the LASCO C2 coronagraph. Towards the start of the eruption, we find evidence for reconnection above the prominence. Subsequently, we find evidence for rapid growth of a vertical current sheet below the erupting arcade, which is accompanied by the flare and prominence eruption.     

Isobaric cooling and anti-clockwise P–T paths in the Variscan Odenwald Crystalline Complex, Germany

Mineral assemblages in Al₂O₃‐rich, SiO₂‐ and K₂O‐poor metapelitic rocks from the western Odenwald Crystalline Complex (Variscan Mid‐German Crystalline Rise, southern Germany) include corundum, spinel, cordierite, sillimanite, garnet and staurolite. Quartz is absent from almost all samples. Therefore, the applicability of conventional geothermobarometry is very limited or even impossible. Detailed petrographic investigation on selected samples permits inference of the sequence of appearance and disappearance of several mineral assemblages. The recognition of such partial re‐equilibration stages and their associated mineral assemblages, together with mineral stabilities predicted from KFMASH pseudosections, enables the determination of the pressure‐temperature (P–T) trajectories experienced by these rocks during the Variscan metamorphism. The rocks were metamorphosed under low‐P/high‐T conditions and underwent an anti‐clockwise P–T evolution. A pressure increase from about 2 kbar to 4 ± 0.5 kbar was accompanied by heating. Peak metamorphic conditions were reached at pressures of 4 ± 0.5 kbar and temperatures of at least 640 °C, probably even higher. The retrograde evolution is characterised by near‐isobaric cooling from ≥ 640 °C to approximately 550 °C. The rocks underwent the anti‐clockwise evolution in a subduction‐related magmatic arc setting. The close spatial association of the low‐P/high‐T rocks with recently discovered metabasic eclogites in the eastern part of the Odenwald Crystalline Complex may indicate a fossil paired metamorphic belt in the Central European Variscides.     

A weak outburst of the millisecond X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 in October 1996 as detected from RXTE slew data

Analysis of the RXTE slew data in October 1996 revealed a weak X-ray burst from the millisecond pulsar SAX J 1808.4-3658. The 3–20-keV energy spectrum of the source can be described by a power law with an index of 2.0 and a(3-to 20 keV) luminosity of ～1.4×10³⁵ erg s^?1 (the distance to the source was taken to be 2.5 kpc). Because of the short exposure time, we failed to detect weak pulsations at a frequency of 401 Hz in the source. The (2σ) upper limit of the pulse fraction is ～13%.