Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Isobaric cooling and anti-clockwise P–T paths in the Variscan Odenwald Crystalline Complex, Germany

Mineral assemblages in Al₂O₃‐rich, SiO₂‐ and K₂O‐poor metapelitic rocks from the western Odenwald Crystalline Complex (Variscan Mid‐German Crystalline Rise, southern Germany) include corundum, spinel, cordierite, sillimanite, garnet and staurolite. Quartz is absent from almost all samples. Therefore, the applicability of conventional geothermobarometry is very limited or even impossible. Detailed petrographic investigation on selected samples permits inference of the sequence of appearance and disappearance of several mineral assemblages. The recognition of such partial re‐equilibration stages and their associated mineral assemblages, together with mineral stabilities predicted from KFMASH pseudosections, enables the determination of the pressure‐temperature (P–T) trajectories experienced by these rocks during the Variscan metamorphism. The rocks were metamorphosed under low‐P/high‐T conditions and underwent an anti‐clockwise P–T evolution. A pressure increase from about 2 kbar to 4 ± 0.5 kbar was accompanied by heating. Peak metamorphic conditions were reached at pressures of 4 ± 0.5 kbar and temperatures of at least 640 °C, probably even higher. The retrograde evolution is characterised by near‐isobaric cooling from ≥ 640 °C to approximately 550 °C. The rocks underwent the anti‐clockwise evolution in a subduction‐related magmatic arc setting. The close spatial association of the low‐P/high‐T rocks with recently discovered metabasic eclogites in the eastern part of the Odenwald Crystalline Complex may indicate a fossil paired metamorphic belt in the Central European Variscides.     

MAXIPOL: a balloon-borne experiment for measuring the polarization anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation

We discuss MAXIPOL, a bolometric balloon-borne experiment designed to measure the E-mode polarization anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) on angular scales of 10^′ to 2°. MAXIPOL is the first CMB experiment to collect data with a polarimeter that utilizes a rotating half-wave plate and fixed wire-grid polarizer. We present the instrument design, elaborate on the polarimeter strategy and show the instrument performance during flight with some time domain data. Our primary dataset was collected during a 26 h turnaround flight that was launched from the National Scientific Ballooning Facility in Ft. Sumner, New Mexico in May 2003. During this flight five regions of the sky were mapped. Data analysis is in progress.     

HH 111 STIS Observations and their Analysis using Analytical and Numerical Models

The internal structure of stellar jets arising from young stellar objects is characterized by a series of `knots' or condensations which have highly supersonic proper motions. These structures, we believe, are the result of a variable ejection from the source, which leads to the formation of internal working surfaces or small bowshock within the jet beam. In this paper we present a long-slit spectrum of Herbig-Haro object HH 111 obtained with STIS and an interpretation of this observation in terms of an ejection velocity variability model.     

Rapid vegetation change during the early Holocene in the Faroe Islands detected in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

High‐resolution pollen, plant macrofossil and sedimentary analyses from early Holocene lacustrine sediments on the Faroe Islands have detected a significant vegetation perturbation suggesting a rapid change in climate between ca. 10 380 cal. yr BP and the Saksunarvatn ash (10 240±60 cal. yr BP). This episode may be synchronous with the decline in δ¹⁸O values in the Greenland ice‐cores. It also correlates with a short, cold event detected in marine cores from the North Atlantic that has been ascribed to a weakening of thermohaline circulation associated with the sudden drainage of Lake Agassiz into the northwest Atlantic, or, alternatively, a period with distinctly decreased solar forcing. The vegetation sequence begins at ca. 10 500 cal. yr BP with a succession from tundra to shrub‐tundra and increasing lake productivity. Rapid population increases of aquatic plants suggest high summer temperatures between 10 450 and 10 380 cal. yr BP. High pollen percentages, concentrations and influx of Betula, Juniperus and Salix together with macrofossil leaves indicate shrub growth around the site during the initial phases of vegetation colonisation. Unstable conditions followed ca. 10 380 cal. yr BP that changed both the upland vegetation and the aquatic plant communities. A decrease in percentage values of shrub pollen is recorded, with replacement of both aquatics and herbaceous plants by pioneer plant communities. An increase in total pollen accumulation rates not seen in the concentration data suggests increased sediment delivery. The catchment changes are consistent with less seasonal, moister conditions. Subsequent climatic amelioration reinitiated a warmth‐driven succession and catchment stabilisation, but retained high precipitation levels influencing the composition of the post‐event communities. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radon variations in a Hungarian village

 A steady radon exhalation is assumed in most publications. In a village of North-East Hungary, however, high radon concentrations have been measured, differing strongly in neighbouring houses and varying in time, due to the interplay of geochemical phenomena. Received: 20 November 1995 · Accepted: 18 June 1996     

Generating interface waves using a freely falling, instrumentedsource

In recent years, interface waves such as the Scholte wave have become important tools in the study of the geoacoustic properties of near-bottom seafloor sediments. Traditionally, these waves have been generated by explosive or pneumatic sources deployed at or near the seafloor and monitored by ocean-bottom seismographs or geophone arrays. While these sources generate the requisite interface waves, they also produce higher frequency compressional waves in the water and sediment that tend to contaminate the surface wave and make inversion of the data difficult in the near field. In this paper, a new source consisting of a freely falling projectile instrumented with an accelerometer is described. When the projectile impacts the bottom, the exact time history of the vertical force applied to the sediment is known and therefore may be convolved with the transfer function of a sediment geoacoustic model to produce accurate synthetic seismograms. Moreover, the vertical force applied to the seafloor is very efficient in generating surface wave motion while producing very little compressional wave energy so that the near-field signals are much more easily analyzed. An example of the use of the new source is presented including inversion of the received signals to obtain shear-wave velocity and attenuation as a function of depth in the near bottom sediments at a shallow-water site     

Three-dimensional coronal structures using clark lake observations

We have undertaken a study of coronal features observed at meter-decameter wavelengths using the Clark Lake radioheliograph. Among the coronal structures we have studied are the radio manifestations of coronal streamers on the solar disk and above the solar limb. We have analyzed the radio data quantitatively, using ray-tracing models for comparison with the maps. Our study provides information about the streamers' three-dimensional shapes, scales, and density profiles, for comparison with related observations using white-light coronagraphs.