Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach

The Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies.     

Molecules in the solar photosphere

A consideration of the dissociation equilibrium of diatomic molecules in the Utrecht Reference Photosphere leads us to conclude that SH, SiO, CS, HF and HCl may show up in enough concentrations in the solar atmosphere. The number above photosphere for these molecules is comparable with or more than that of MgH.     

Cyanogen lines and facula models

Predicted equivalent widths and profiles of facular CN lines are used here as a diagnostic tool for different model atmospheres.     

A composite stellar model of magnetofluid continuum via anholonomic descriptions

A theoretical analysis based on the equations of magnetofluid-dynamics is undertaken, in order to completely classify the geometry of the motion admitted by this pattern.     

Runoff modelling of a small watershed using satellite data and GIS

This study was conducted for the Nagwan watershed of the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC), Hazaribagh, Bihar, India. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to extract the hydrological parameters of the watershed from the remote sensing and field data. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was prepared using contour map (Survey of India, 1:50000 scale) of the watershed. The EASI/PACE GIS software was used to extract the topographic features and to delineate watershed and overland flow-paths from the DEM. Land use classification were generated from data of Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-1B—LISS—II) to compute runoff Curve Number (CN). Data extracted from contour map, soil map and satellite imagery, viz. drainage basin area, basin shape, average slope of the watershed, main stream channel slope, land use, hydrological soil groups and CN were used for developing an empirical model for surface runoff prediction. It was found that the model can predict runoff reasonably well and is well suited for the Nagwan watershed. Design of conservation structures can be done and their effects on direct runoff can be evaluated using the model. In broader sense it could be concluded that model can be applied for estimating runoff and evaluating its effect on structures of the Nagwan watershed.     

Framboidal pyrite from Mussoorie phosphorite and its geological implication

The present paper records the occurrence of framboidal pyrite and algal pyrite in the Mussoorie phosphorite deposit. The significance of organic matter and sediment composition have also been discussed. The petrographic and analytical data indicate the dominant role of organic matter in the formation of pyrite. It is concluded from the textural study of pyrite that framboids have formed earlier in the sediment and subsequently the euhedral pyrite nucleated on them, gradually increasing in its abundance.     

Palaeomagnetic results from the Cretaceous Bagh Group in the Narmada Basin, central India: evidence of pervasive Deccan remagnetization and its implications for Deccan volcanism

A palaeomagnetic study of 115 samples (328 specimens) from 22 sites of the Mid- to Upper Cretaceous Bagh Group underlying the Deccan Traps in the Man valley (22°  20'N, 75°  5'E) of the Narmada Basin is reported. A characteristic magnetization of dominantly reverse polarity has been isolated from the entire rock succession, whose depositional age is constrained within the Cretaceous Normal Superchron. Only a few samples in the uppermost strata have yielded either normal or mixed polarity directions. The overall mean of reverse magnetization is D _m=144°, I _m=47° ( α ₉₅=2.8°, k =152, N =18 sites) with the corresponding S-pole position 28.7°S, 111.2°E ( A ₉₅=3.1°) and a palaeolatitude of 28°S±3°. The characteristic remanence is carried dominantly by magnetite. Similar magnetizations of reverse polarity are also exhibited by Deccan basalt samples and a mafic dyke in the study area. This pole position falls near the Late Cretaceous segment of the Indian APWP and is concordant with poles reported from the Deccan basalt flows and dated DSDP cores (75–65  Ma) of the Indian Ocean. It is therefore concluded that the Bagh Group in the eastern part of the Narmada Basin has been pervasively remagnetized by the igneous activity of Deccan basalt effusion. This overprinted palaeomagnetic signature in the Bagh Group indicates a counter-clockwise rotation by 13°±3° and a latitudinal drift northwards by 3°±3° of the Indian subcontinent during Deccan volcanism.     

Performance of elevated tanks in<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> 7.7 Bhuj earthquake of january 26th, 2001

The current designs of supporting structures of elevated water tanks are extremely vulnerable under lateral forces due to an earthquake and the Bhuj earthquake provided another illustration when a great many water tank stagings suffered damage and a few collapsed. The more popular shaft type stagings suffer from poor ductility of thin shell sections besides low redundancy and toughness whereas framed stagings consist of weak members and poor brace-column joints. A strength analysis of a few damaged shaft type stagings clearly shows that all of them either met or exceeded the strength requirements of IS:1893-1984, however, they were all found deficient when compared with requirements of the International Building Code. IS:1893-1984 is unjustifiably low for these systems which do not have the advantage of ductility and redundancy and are currently being underestimated at least by a factor of 3 and need an upward revision of forces immediately.     

Hydrological modelling of a small watershed using satellite data and gis technique

A distributed parameter model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been tested on daily and monthly basis for estimating surface runoff and sediment yield from a small watershed “Chhokeranala” in eastern India using satellite data and Geographical Information System (GIS). Several maps like watershed and sub-watershed boundaries, drainage network, landuse/cover and soil texture have been generated. The SWAT model has been verified for the initial phase of monsoon season in the year 2002 using daily rainfall and air temperature. Performance of the model has been also evaluated to simulate the surface runoff and sediment yield on sub-watershed basis for two months (July-August 2002). The results show a good agreement between observed and simulated runoff and sediment yield during the study period. Capability of the model for generating rainfall has been evaluated for 10 years (1992 - 2001) period. The model simulated daily rainfall shows close agreement with the observed rainfall. The present results show that the SWAT model can be used for satisfactory simulation of daily and monthly rainfall, runoff and sediment yield.