Post-seismic reloading and temporal clustering on a single fault

Geological studies show evidence for temporal clustering of large earthquakes on individual fault systems. Since post-seismic deformation due to the inelastic rheology of the lithosphere may result in a variable loading rate on a fault throughout the interseismic period, it is reasonable to expect that the rheology of the non-seismogenic lower crust and mantle lithosphere may play a role in controlling earthquake recurrence times. We study this phenomenon using a 2-D, finite element method continuum model of the lithosphere containing a single strike-slip fault. This model builds on a previous study using a 1-D spring-dashpot-slider analogue of a single fault system to study the role of Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation in producing non-periodic earthquakes. In our 2-D model, the seismogenic portion of the fault slips when a predetermined yield stress is exceeded; stress accumulated on the seismogenic fault is shed to the viscoelastic layers below and recycled back to the seismogenic fault through viscoelastic relaxation. We find that random variation of the fault yield stress from one earthquake to the next can cause the earthquake sequence to be clustered; the amount of clustering depends on a non-dimensional number, W , called the Wallace number defined as the standard deviation of the randomly varied fault yield stress divided by the effective viscosity of the system times the tectonic loading rate. A new clustering metric based on the bimodal distribution of interseismic intervals allows us to investigate clustering behaviour of systems over a wide range of model parameters and those with multiple viscoelastic layers. For models with   W ≥ 1  clustering increases with increasing W , while those with   W ≤ 1  are unclustered, or quasi-periodic.     

Spectral estimation on a sphere in geophysics and cosmology

We address the problem of estimating the spherical-harmonic power spectrum of a statistically isotropic scalar signal from noise-contaminated data on a region of the unit sphere. Three different methods of spectral estimation are considered: (i) the spherical analogue of the one-dimensional (1-D) periodogram, (ii) the maximum-likelihood method and (iii) a spherical analogue of the 1-D multitaper method. The periodogram exhibits strong spectral leakage, especially for small regions of area   A ≪ 4π  , and is generally unsuitable for spherical spectral analysis applications, just as it is in 1-D. The maximum-likelihood method is particularly useful in the case of nearly-whole-sphere coverage,   A ≈ 4π  , and has been widely used in cosmology to estimate the spectrum of the cosmic microwave background radiation from spacecraft observations. The spherical multitaper method affords easy control over the fundamental trade-off between spectral resolution and variance, and is easily implemented regardless of the region size, requiring neither non-linear iteration nor large-scale matrix inversion. As a result, the method is ideally suited for most applications in geophysics, geodesy or planetary science, where the objective is to obtain a spatially localized estimate of the spectrum of a signal from noisy data within a pre-selected and typically small region.     

Evaluation of a gravel transport sensor for bed load measurements in natural flows

A recent acoustic instrument （Gravel Transport Sensor, GTS） was tested for predicting sediment transport rate （bed load rate） in gravel bed streams. The GTS operation is based on the particle collision theory of submerged obstacles in fluids. When particles collide with the GTS cylinder their momentum is recorded in the form of ping rates. The GTS is attractive for further consideration here because of its potential to provide continuous unattended local bed load measurements, especially in areas found in streams that access may be difficult under extreme conditions. Laboratory experiments coupled with numerical simulations for the same flow conditions were performed in order to determine the conditions under which particles of different size will hit the GTS cylinder and be able to register a ping rate. The GTS was able to detect the number of particles with diameter in the range of 15.9 to 25.4 mm, with reasonable accuracy, if the applied Shields effective stress τ＊e = τ＊ - τ＊cr was in the range of 0.006 to 0.015. A drawback of the tested prototype GTS, however, was that it exerted increased resistance on the incoming particles. The added drag effects increased the overall resistance that was exerted by the flow on particles and thus increased the likelihood that particles will rest in the ambient region of the cylinder instead of hitting it. Numerical simulation of the flow around the GTS cylinder revealed that changing the prototype geometry from cylindrical to ellipsoid or rhomboid will increase the likelihood of the particles hitting the instrument under the same flow conditions failed by the original tested GTS cylinder.     

Observations on the flow structures and transport in a simulated warm-core ring in the Gulf of Mexico

This study presents several new observations from the study of a numerically simulated warm-core ring (WCR) in the Gulf of Mexico based on the ECCO2 global ocean simulation. Using Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) techniques to investigate this flow reveals a pattern of transversely intersecting LCS in the mixed layer of the WCR which experiences consistent stretching behavior over a large region of space and time. A detailed analysis of this flow region leads to an analytical model of the velocity field which captures the essential elements that generate the transversely intersecting LCS. The model parameters are determined from the simulated WCR and the resulting LCS show excellent agreement with those observed in the WCR. The three-dimensional transport behavior that creates these structures relies on the small radial outflow that is present in the mixed layer and is not seen below the pycnocline, leading to a sharp change in the character of the LCS at the bottom of the mixed layer. The flow behavior revealed by the LCS limits fluid exchange between the WCR and the surrounding ocean, contributing to the long life of WCRs. Further study of these structures and their associated transport behavior may lead to further insights into the development and persistence of such geophysical vortices as well as their transport behavior.     

Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain—assessing and achieving groundwater resource sustainability

The Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain is one of the worlds largest aquifer systems and supports an enormous exploitation of groundwater, which has reaped large socio-economic benefits in terms of grain production, farming employment and rural poverty alleviation, together with urban and industrial water-supply provision. Both population and economic activity have grown markedly in the past 25 years. Much of this has been heavily dependent upon groundwater resource development, which has encountered increasing difficulties in recent years primarily as a result of aquifer depletion and related phenomena. This paper focuses upon the hydrogeologic and socio-economic diagnosis of these groundwater resource issues, and identifies strategies to improve groundwater resource sustainability.

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Resumen El acuífero cuaternario de la Llanura Septentrional de China es uno de los mayores sistemas acuíferos del mundo y soporta una enorme explotación de su agua subterránea, las cuales han originado grandes beneficios socioeconómicos en términos de producción de grano, empleo en agricultura y mitigación de la pobreza rural, además de proveer agua para abastecimiento urbano e industria. Tanto la población como la actividad económica han crecido mucho en los últimos 25 años con una gran dependencia de las aguas subterráneas, que ha encontrado dificultades recientes por la explotación intensiva del acuífero y fenómenos relacionados. Este artículo se centra en la diagnosis hidrogeológica y socioeconómica de los problemas relacionados con las aguas subterráneas e identifica estrategias para mejorar la sustentabilidad de este recurco.

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Résumé Laquifère Quaternaire de la Plaine du Nord de la Chine est lun des plus grands systèmes aquifères du monde; il permet une exploitation énorme deau souterraine, qui a permis des très importants bénéfices socio-économiques en terme de production de céréales, demplois ruraux et de réduction de la pauvreté rurale, en même temps que lapprovisionnement en eau potable et pour lindustrie. La population comme lactivité économique ont remarquablement augmenté au cours de ces 25 dernières années. Elles ont été sous la forte dépendance du développement de la ressource en eau souterraine, qui a rencontré des difficultés croissantes ces dernières années, du fait du rabattement de laquifère et des phénomènes associés. Cet article est consacré aux diagnostiques hydrogéologique et socio-économique des retombées de cette ressource en eau souterraine; il identifie les stratégies pour améliorer la pérennité des ressources en eau souterraine.

     

Evidence for Holocene climate variability from the sediments of a Scottish remote mountain lake

High resolution sampling of sediment cores covering approximately the last 4000 yr from Lochan Uaine, a small corrie loch in the Scottish Cairngorm Mountains, show quasi‐periodic cycles in organic matter (measured as percentage loss on ignition). Analysis of these cycles show correspondences between loss on ignition, δ¹³C values and chironomid head capsule abundance. We interpret the changes as reflecting changes in lake productivity and hypothesise that they are driven by climate variability. However, it is not yet clear whether the periods of relatively high organic matter production and preservation are associated with colder or with warmer conditions. Nevertheless the results indicate the value of using sediments from remote, undisturbed mountain lakes as recorders of Holocene climate variability. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth of interstellar grains by coagulation

A discussion is given of the spontaneous coagulation of interstellar grains due to their natural Brownian motion. It is shown that the predicted present day size of such grains, assuming such a mechanism being operative, is in reasonable agreement with observations for three different environments that have been considered: namely, normal interstellar gas clouds, molecular clouds and the atmospheres of cool stars.     

Physical and chemical behaviour of clay-based barriers under percolation with test liquids

A research and development-project is being carried out at the University of Braunschweig, West Germany, in which the permeability and durability of clayey liners for waste deposits are investigated.

Results of long-term permeability tests with different aggressive test liquids (distilled water, two organic and five inorganic test liquids) are shown and sample behaviour is explained.

Further the used test-liquids are analysed before and after percolation of the liner materials. Leaching or adsorption effects can thus be recognized.

After percolation the liner specimens are mineralogically investigated in order to obtain by comparison with water analyses, additional evidence on ion exchange processes, and thus on the long-term durability of the liner materials. The different analytical methods used are presented and important results are discussed.     

Effective wind stress over the great lakes derived from long‐term numerical model simulations

Numerical models were used to compute water circulations throughout the 1970 shipping season for Lake Erie and for the 1972 International Field Year on Lake Ontario. Simultaneous computations of surface elevations were compared with observed water levels to adjust the model results after the fact. As a by‐product of these simultations, effective stress coefficients over water can be estimated. The results support earlier evidence that the effective wind stress over water is larger than indicated by atmospheric boundary layer measurements.