The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

Recovering Shear-wave Anisotropy of the Lower Crust: The Influence of Systematic Errors on Travel-time Inversion

—Studies of seismic anisotropy in situ can help to discriminate between different rock types for the lower crust. In this context we investigate the sensitivity of an iterative linearized 3-D travel-time inversion scheme for transversely isotropic media with respect to two types of systematic errors wrong velocities and interface topography of the hanging wall of the lower crust. The computations simulate realistic field conditions such as found for the Variscan crust at the Urach geothermal anomaly. The study focusses on the possible information content of split S _M ?S arrivals observed along two orthogonal expanding spread profiles. It ensues that an imperfect knowledge of the layer geometry is of minor importance compared to errors in the velocities of the hanging wall. In particular, upper crust anisotropy has to be considered carefully. Generally, the anisotropy of transversely polarized shear waves (SH waves) was recovered with higher accuracy than the anisotropy of vertically polarized shear waves (SV waves).     

Helioseismological constraint on solar axion emission

Helioseismological sound-speed profiles severely constrain possible deviations from standard solar models, allowing us to derive new limits on anomalous solar energy losses by the Primakoff emission of axions. For an axion-photon coupling g_ay 5 × 10⁻¹⁰ GeV⁻¹, the solar model is almost indistinguishable from the standard case, while g_ay 10 × 10⁻¹⁰ GeV⁻¹ is probably excluded, corresponding to an axion luminosity of about 0.20 L. This constraint on g_ay is much weaker than the well-known globular-cluster limit, but about a factor of 3 more restrictive than previous solar limits. Our result is primarily of interest to the large number of current or proposed search experiments for solar axions because our limit defines the maximum g_ay for which it is self-consistent to use a standard solar model to calculate the axion luminosity.     

Geomagnetic induction in a heterogeneous sphere: fully three-dimensional test computations and the response of a realistic distribution of oceans and continents

Long-period geomagnetic data can resolve large-scale 3-D mantle electrical conductivity heterogeneities which are indicators of physiochemical variations found in the Earth's dynamic mantle. A prerequisite for mapping such heterogeneity is the ability to model accurately electromagnetic induction in a heterogeneous sphere. A previously developed finite element method solution to the geomagnetic induction problem is validated against an analytic solution for a fully 3-D geometry: an off-axis spherical inclusion embedded in a uniform sphere. Geomagnetic induction is then modelled in a uniform spherical mantle overlain by a realistic distribution of oceanic and continental conductances. Our results indicate that the contrast in electrical conductivity between oceans and continents is not primarily responsible for the observed geographic variability of long-period geomagnetic data. In the absence of persistent high-wavenumber magnetospheric disturbances, this argues strongly for the existence of large-scale, high-contrast electrical conductivity heterogeneities in the mid-mantle. Lastly, for several periods the geomagnetic anomaly associated with a mid-mantle spherical inclusion is calculated. A high-contrast inclusion can be readily detected beneath the outer shell of oceans and continents. A comparison between observed and computed c responses suggests that the mid-mantle contains more than one order of magnitude of lateral variability in electrical conductivity, while the upper mantle contains at least two orders of magnitude of lateral variability in electrical conductivity.     

Modelling photospheric magnetoconvection

The increasing power of computers makes it possible to model the non-linear interaction between magnetic fields and convection at the surfaces of solar-type stars in ever greater detail. We present the results of idealized numerical experiments on two-dimensional magnetoconvection in a fully compressible perfect gas. We first vary the aspect ratio λ of the computational box and show that the system runs through a sequence of convective patterns, and that it is only for a sufficiently wide box (λ ≥ 6) that the flow becomes insensitive to further increases in λ. Next, setting λ = 6, we decrease the field strength from a value strong enough to halt convection and find transitions to small-scale steady convection, next to spatially modulated oscillations (first periodic, then chaotic) and then to a new regime of flux separation, with regions of strong field (where convection is almost completely suppressed) separated by broad convective plumes. We also explore the effects of altering the boundary conditions and show that this sequence of transitions is robust. Finally, we relate these model calculations to recent high-resolution observations of solar magnetoconvection, in plage regions as well as in light bridges and the umbrae of sunspots.     

Speculations on the Thermal and Tectonic History of the Earth

Summary. The connection between the Earth's thermal history and convection in the mantle is exploited to elucidate the early evolution of the Earth. It appears probable that convection extending over almost all of the mantle has dominated vertical heat transport throughout the whole of the Earth's history. Only in boundary layers at the surface and at a depth of 650–700 km is conduction likely to be important. The resulting evolution appears to be consistent with geological observations on early Precambrian rocks.
Various arguments are put forward in favour of two horizontal scales of convective flow in the mantle at depths less than 650 km. The large scale flow is related to the motion of major plates, and must be ordered over distances of more than 5000 km. Its evolution and energetics are discussed and there are no obvious problems in maintaining the proposed convective motions. Small scale flow with an extent of the order of 500 km appears necessary both to explain the heat flow through older parts of the Earth's surface and to reconcile the geophysical observations with the results of numerical experiments. Though the existence of the small scale flow is at present speculative, various tests of its presence are proposed.     

The nature of blue luminescence from natural benitoite BaTiSi<Subscript>3</Subscript>O<Subscript>9</Subscript>

It is proved that blue luminescence from benitoite is connected with intrinsic luminescence centers, namely isolated TiO₆ octahedra. The metastable level ³T_1u is the emitting level at low temperatures with a long decay time of 1.1 ms. At higher temperatures an energy level with higher radiation probability must be involved in the emission process, and this level is situated at 0.06 eV higher than the lowest level. These two levels may be connected with ³T_1u level splitting or with closely spaced ³T_1u and ³T_2u levels. Decay time shortening and thermal quenching are connected with nonradiative decay within the TiO₆ luminescence center, while energy migration does not take place at least up to room temperature.     

Range and bearing estimation using polynomial rooting

Simultaneous estimation of the range and bearing of near-field emitters usually involves a multidimensional search. The authors examine an alternative algorithm which involves search in the range direction combined with polynomial rooting, which replaces the search in the azimuth direction. The proposed algorithm requires a smaller amount of computation than algorithms based on two-dimensional search. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation, and is compared to the Cramer-Rao bound on the bearing/range estimation errors. Formulas for computing the bound are derived     

The influence of the local level on innovations in environmental technology: The case of the German kraft pulp industry

Particularly in view of the general trend for governments to withdraw from environmental regulation and leave the field to market processes, and in view of the growing importance of (transnational) environmental NGOs, the question arises whether and to what extent the local level as a location for production activities of whatever kind may influence the environmental performance of industrial enterprises. The concept proposed for the local level in this study incorporates the business-cluster and the (creative) milieu approach. The study uses disputes about the pulp industry in Germany in the period between 1950 and 2005 as an example to investigate the influence of local actors and local knowledge. It appears that the perception of industry-related environmental problems, as well as the solutions proposed, increase in quality as the volume of localised industry-specific knowledge expands. At the same time, responses at the local level are unmistakeably informed by debates about environmental problems on the national plane as well as by discussions about development paths at the local and/or regional level.