Peculiar velocities and the mean density parameter

We study the peculiar velocity field inferred from the Mark III spirals using a new method of analysis. We estimate optimal values of Tully–Fisher scatter and zero-point offset, and we derive the three-dimensional rms peculiar velocity ( σ _v ) of the galaxies in the samples analysed. We check our statistical analysis using mock catalogues derived from numerical simulations of cold dark matter (CDM) models considering measurement uncertainties and sampling variations. Our best determination for the observations is σ _v =(660±50) km s⁻¹. We use the linear theory relation between σ _v , the density parameter Ω, and the galaxy correlation function ξ ( r ) to infer the quantity     , where b is the linear bias parameter of optical galaxies and the uncertainties correspond to bootstrap resampling and an estimated cosmic variance added in quadrature. Our findings are consistent with the results of cluster abundances and redshift-space distortion of the two-point correlation function. These statistical measurements suggest a low value of the density parameter Ω∼0.4 if optical galaxies are not strongly biased tracers of mass.     

Fault-controlled dolostone geometries in a transgressive–regressive sequence stratigraphic framework

This study investigates the geometries of fault-controlled dolostone geobodies and their structural and sequence stratigraphic controls, which provide new insights for the prediction and production of fault-controlled dolomitized hydrocarbon reservoirs. A very thick succession (>1600 m) of Aptian–Albian shallow-marine carbonates of the Benassal Formation that crop out in the Benicàssim area (Maestrat Basin, eastern Spain) is partly replaced by dolomite, resulting in dolostone geometries ranging from massive patches to stratabound bodies. Detailed mapping, systematic logging and correlation were carried out to characterize the structural, sedimentary and sequence stratigraphic framework of the area and to constrain the principal controls on the full-range of dolostone geometries. The results show that carbonate sediments accumulated in a half graben stacked in three transgressive–regressive sequences. Large-scale massive dolostone patches (with up to kilometre extension) formed near large-scale faults indicating that they acted as entry points for warm dolomitizing fluids into the basin. These dolostone patches laterally pass to large stratabound bodies that extend for long distances (at least 7 km) away from feeding faults, forming a continuum. The presence of a regional unconformity and a clastic fine-grain low-permeability unit (Escucha Formation) on top of the Benassal Formation likely constrained the dolomitization fluids to an up to 580 m thick interval below the base of the Escucha Formation. Thus, only limestones within this interval, corresponding to the two uppermost transgressive–regressive sequences, were dolomitized. There is a clear relationship between the stratigraphic framework and the preferred replaced beds. Dolomitization preferentially affected sediments deposited in inner to middle ramp settings with predominant wackestone to packstone textures. Such facies are laterally most abundant in the east of the study area (i.e. basinward) and vertically in layers around the maximum flooding zone of the top sequence, which is preferentially affected by dolomitization.     

Forecasting Zonda Wind Occurrence with Vertical Sounding Data

Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.     

SH Wave Number Green’s Function for a Layered,Elastic Half-Space. Part I: Theory and Dynamic Canyon Response by the Discrete Wave Number Boundary Element Method

We present a closed-form frequency-wave number (ω – k) Green’s function for a layered, elastic half-space under SH wave propagation. It is shown that for every (ω – k) pair, the fundamental solution exhibits two distinctive features: (1) the original layered system can be reduced to a system composed by the uppermost superficial layer over an equivalent half-space; (2) the fundamental solution can be partitioned into three different fundamental solutions, each one carrying out a different physical interpretation, i.e., an equivalent half-space, source image impact, and dispersive wave effect, respectively. Such an interpretation allows the proper use of analytical and numerical integration schemes, and ensures the correct assessment of Cauchy principal value integrals. Our method is based upon a stiffness-matrix scheme, and as a first approach we assume that observation points and the impulsive SH line-source are spatially located within the uppermost superficial layer. We use a discrete wave number boundary element strategy to test the benefits of our fundamental solution. We benchmark our results against reported solutions for an infinitely long circular canyon subjected to oblique incident SH waves within a homogeneous half-space. Our results show an almost exact agreement with previous studies. We further shed light on the impact of horizontal strata by examining the dynamic response of the circular canyon to oblique incident SH waves under different layered half-space configurations and incident angles. Our results show that modifications in the layering structure manifest by larger peak ground responses, and stronger spatial variability due to interactions of the canyon geometry with trapped Love waves in combination with impedance contrast effects.     

Modeling the effects of pulsed versus chronic sand inputs on salmonid spawning habitat in a low‐gradient gravel‐bed river

It is widely recognized that high supplies of fine sediment, largely sand, can negatively impact the aquatic habitat quality of gravel‐bed rivers, but effects of the style of input (chronic vs. pulsed) have not been examined quantitatively. We hypothesize that a continuous (i.e. chronic) supply of sand will be more detrimental to the quality of aquatic habitat than an instantaneous sand pulse equal to the integrated volume of the chronic supply. We investigate this issue by applying a two‐dimensional numerical model to a 1 km long reach of prime salmonid spawning habitat in central Idaho. Results show that in both supply scenarios, sand moves through the study reach as bed load, and that both the movement and depth of sand on the streambed mirrors the hydrograph of this snowmelt‐dominated river. Predictions indicate greater and more persistent mortality of salmonid embryos under chronic supplies than pulse inputs, supporting our hypothesis. However, predicted mortality varies both with salmonid species and location of spawning. We found that the greatest impacts occur closer to the location of the sand input under both supply scenarios. Results also suggest that reach‐scale morphology may modulate the impact of sand loads, and that under conditions of high sand loading climate‐related increases in flow magnitude could increase embryo mortality through sand deposition, rather than streambed scour. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires

Wildfires have been studied in many ways, for instance as a spatial point pattern or through modeling the size of fires or the relative risk of big fires. Lately a large variety of complex statistical models can be fitted routinely to complex data sets, in particular wildfires, as a result of widely accessible high-level statistical software, such as R. The objective in this paper is to model the occurrence of big wildfires (greater than a given extension of hectares) using an adapted two-part econometric model, specifically a hurdle model. The methodology used in this paper is useful to determine those factors that help any fire to become a big wildfire. Our proposal and methodology can be routinely used to contribute to the management of big wildfires.