Simulated responses of Pinus halepensis forest productivity to climatic change and CO2 increase using a statistical model

Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO₂ increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO₂ increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO₂ increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO₂ concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO₂ enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO₂ scenario. The 2×CO₂ climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO₂ increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.     

Non-stationary future return levels for extreme rainfall over Extremadura (southwestern Iberian Peninsula)

Based on a previous study for temperature, a new method for the calculation of non-stationary return levels for extreme rainfall is described and applied to Extremadura, a region of southwestern Spain, using the peaks-over-threshold approach. Both all-days and rainy-days-only datasets were considered and the 20-year return levels expected in 2020 were estimated taking different trends into account: first, for all days, considering a time-dependent threshold and the trend in the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution; and second, for rainy days only, considering how the mean, variance, and number of rainy days evolve. Generally, the changes in mean, variance and number of rainy days can explain the observed trends in extremes, and their extrapolation gives more robust estimations. The results point to a decrease of future return levels in 2020 for spring and winter, but an increase for autumn.     

Control of the repeatability of high frequency multibeam echosounder backscatter by using natural reference areas

The increased use of backscatter measurements in time series for environmental monitoring necessitates the comparability of individual results. With the current lack of pre-calibrated multibeam echosounder systems for absolute backscatter measurement, a pragmatic solution is the use of natural reference areas for ensuring regular assessment of the backscatter measurement repeatability. This method mainly relies on the assumption of a sufficiently stable reference area regarding its backscatter signature. The aptitude of a natural area to provide a stable and uniform backscatter response must be carefully considered and demonstrated by a sufficiently long time-series of measurements. Furthermore, this approach requires a strict control of the acquisition and processing parameters. If all these conditions are met, stability check and relative calibration of a system are possible by comparison with the averaged backscatter values for the area. Based on a common multibeam echosounder and sampling campaign completed by available bathymetric and backscatter time series, the suitability as a backscatter reference area of three different candidates was evaluated. Two among them, Carré Renard and Kwinte, prove to be excellent choices, while the third one, Western Solent, lacks sufficient data over time, but remains a valuable candidate. The case studies and the available backscatter data on these areas prove the applicability of this method. The expansion of the number of commonly used reference areas and the growth of the number of multibeam echosounder controlled thereon could greatly contribute to the further development of quantitative applications based on multibeam echosounder backscatter measurements.     

Modelling of internal erosion based on mixture theory: General framework and a case study of soil suffusion

A general thermo-hydro-mechanical framework for the modelling of internal erosion is proposed based on the theory of mixtures applied to two-phase porous media. The erodible soil is partitioned in two phases: one solid phase and one fluid phase. The solid phase is composed of nonerodible grains and erodible particles. The fluid phase is composed of water and fluidized particles. Within the fluid phase, species diffuse. Across phases, species transfer. The modelling of internal erosion is contributed directly by mass transfer from the solid phase towards the fluid phase. The constitutive relations governing the thermomechanical behaviour, generalised diffusion, and transfer are structured by the dissipation inequality. The particular case of soil suffusion is investigated with a focus on constitutive laws. A new constitutive law for suffusion is constructed based on thermodynamic conditions and experimental investigations. This erosion law is linearly related to the power of seepage flow and to the erosion resistance index. Owing to its simplicity, this law tackles the overall trend of the suffusion process and permits the formulation of an analytical solution. This new model is then applied to simulate laboratory experiments, by both analytical and numerical methods. The comparison shows that the newly developed model, which is theoretically consistent, can reproduce correctly the overall trend of the cumulated eroded mass when the permeability evolution is small. In addition, the results are provided for four different materials, two different specimen sizes, and various hydraulic loading paths to demonstrate the applicability of the new proposed law.     

Late Neogene sequence stratigraphic evolution of the Foz do Amazonas Basin,Brazil

The margin of the Foz do Amazonas Basin saw a shift from predominantly carbonate to siliciclastic sedimentation in the early late Miocene. By this time, the Amazon shelf had also been incised by a canyon that allowed direct influx of sediment to the basin floor, thus confirming that the palaeo‐Amazon fan had already initiated by that time (9.5–8.3 Ma). Above this interval, during a prolonged lowstand, Messinian third‐order sequences are preserved only in the incised‐valley fills of the canyon with no equivalent strata on the shelf. Third‐ and fourth‐order sequences younger than Messinian are preserved on the shelf after sea‐level rise above the shelf by the early Pliocene. Sequences younger than 3.8 Ma often show fourth‐order cyclicity with an average duration of 400 ka (larger scale eccentricity cycles) often preserved in high‐sedimentation‐rate areas of river deltas. Mass wasting and transportation of slope sediments to the basin began to play an important role in sediment dispersal at least as far back as the mid‐Pliocene, after rapid progradation had produced steeper slopes more prone to failure.