The Košice meteorite fall: Recovery and strewn field

We provide the circumstances and details of the fireball observation, search expeditions, recovery, strewn field, and physical characteristics of the Ko?ice meteorite that fell in Slovakia on February 28, 2010. The meteorite was only the 15th case of an observed bolide with a recovered mass and subsequent orbit determination. Despite multiple eyewitness reports of the bolide, only three videos from security cameras in Hungary were used for the strewn field determination and orbit computation. Multiple expeditions of professionals and individual searchers found 218 fragments with total weight of 11.3 kg. The strewn field with the size of 5 × 3 km is characterized with respect to the space distribution of the fragments, their mass and size‐frequency distribution. This work describes a catalog of 78 fragments, mass, size, volume, fusion crust, names of discoverers, geographic location, and time of discovery, which represents the most complex study of a fresh meteorite fall. From the analytical results, we classified the Ko?ice meteorite as an ordinary H5 chondrite.     

Critical state framework for liquefaction of fine grained soils

A consistent methodology based on the critical state framework to characterize the different regimes of fine-grained soil behavior under earthquake loads is put forward. Shear strength and deformation behavior of soils depend in a major way on the combination of volume and confining stress. Depending on their combination, a soil aggregate may fracture into clastic debris, fail with fault planes, or yield plastically. This characterization of the class of limiting soil behavior is used to analyze the potential for large deformation and liquefaction in fine grained soils. The central piece of the proposed characterization is the (η, LI₅) stability diagram where η = q/p′ and LI₅ = LI + 0.5 log (p′/5). This diagram captures the effects of soil plasticity through liquidity index LI, confinement through mean normal effective stress p′, and shear stress q through the stress ratio η. The three regions of behavior; fracture, fault, and fold/yield are identified. Soils become susceptible to liquefaction when they shift into the fracture zone (LI₅ ≤ 0.4), or if they plot outside of the stable yielding region.Under earthquake loading, the initial soil states will migrate into different regions in the stability diagram depending on their initial location, shear stress increment, and, pore pressure response. The final position of the soil state would dictate the type of limiting behavior expected in the field; fracture, rupture or yield. The final states which fall into the fracture region have the potential for catastrophic failures including “liquefaction”; the ones which fall onto the rupture region would experience the attainment of a peak stress ratio followed by softening along failure planes; the ones in the yield region would continue to yield in a stable manner. The latter two types of deformations while resulting in large deformation may not be of a catastrophic nature. The proposed characterization is used to examine the liquefaction susceptibility of fine grained soils from China, Taiwan, and Turkey. Use of simplified empirical criteria based on parameters such as plasticity index and fines contents may not capture the true nature of the type of undrained limiting behavior of fine grains soils in the field including liquefaction.     

Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth��s most important biodiversity hotspots

The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Ni?o?CSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Ni?o (La Ni?a), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO??s effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December?CFebruary, and weaker during March?CMay. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Ni?o (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Ni?a. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean?Catmosphere?Cland system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region??s valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.     

Categorisation of typical vulnerability patterns in global drylands

Drylands display specific vulnerability-creating mechanisms which threaten ecosystems and human well-being. The upscaling of successful interventions to reduce vulnerability arises as an important, but challenging aim, since drylands are not homogenous. To support this aim, we present the first attempt to categorise dryland vulnerability at a global scale and sub-national resolution. The categorisation yields typical patterns of dryland vulnerability and their policy implications according to similarities among the socio-ecological systems. Based on a compilation of prevalent vulnerability-creating mechanisms, we quantitatively indicate the most important dimensions including poverty, water stress, soil degradation, natural agro-constraints and isolation. A cluster analysis reveals a set of seven typical vulnerability patterns showing distinct indicator combinations. These results are validated by case studies reflecting the cluster-specific mechanisms and their spatial distribution. Based on these patterns, we deduce thematic and spatial entry points for reducing dryland vulnerability. Our findings could contribute new insights into allocating the limited funds available for dryland development and support related monitoring efforts based on the manageable number of key indicators.     

A hard instrument goes soft: The implications of the Convention on Biological Diversity's current trajectory

The relentless loss of biological diversity, which will have a direct impact on human society and degrade ecosystem buffers against the extremes of climate perturbation, requires a strong global governance response. Of the numerous international legal instruments relating to the protection of nature, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is the most comprehensive. This paper examines its current emphasis on global biodiversity targets to extend our understanding of its trajectory, and its evolving nature as an instrument of global governance. We review CBD documents, and early examinations of its emergent character, in the context of the distinction between hard and soft law approaches, and combine analysis on the issue of targets from the literature on development, climate change and conservation biology. We emphasise that the CBD, created as a hard law instrument with a framework character, had the clear facility to develop subsidiary hard law instruments in the form of protocols but has not significantly followed this route. We document how its approach - which has been typically ‘soft’, as exemplified by its focus on global biodiversity targets which are not backed up by obligations - suggests it operates de facto as policy rather than an instrument requiring state action. The adoption of global targets has parallels with other initiatives within global governance and may influence international political agendas, but they have failed to provide practical instruments for national implementation. Conditions may now exist for the CBD to develop focussed hard legal instruments in specific areas of its wide remit that support realistic targets.     

Mechanism of the 1996–97 non-eruptive volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm at Iliamna Volcano,Alaska

A significant number of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake swarms, some of which are accompanied by ground deformation and/or volcanic gas emissions, do not culminate in an eruption. These swarms are often thought to represent stalled intrusions of magma into the mid- or shallow-level crust. Real-time assessment of the likelihood that a VT swarm will culminate in an eruption is one of the key challenges of volcano monitoring, and retrospective analysis of non-eruptive swarms provides an important framework for future assessments. Here we explore models for a non-eruptive VT earthquake swarm located beneath Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, in May 1996–June 1997 through calculation and inversion of fault-plane solutions for swarm and background periods, and through Coulomb stress modeling of faulting types and hypocenter locations observed during the swarm. Through a comparison of models of deep and shallow intrusions to swarm observations, we aim to test the hypothesis that the 1996–97 swarm represented a shallow intrusion, or “failed” eruption. Observations of the 1996–97 swarm are found to be consistent with several scenarios including both shallow and deep intrusion, most likely involving a relatively small volume of intruded magma and/or a low degree of magma pressurization corresponding to a relatively low likelihood of eruption.     

Hindcasting of tropical cyclone winds and waves

Ocean Dynamics - This paper describes a series of hindcast simulations of 17 tropical cyclones over the northwest shelf region of Australia. Tropical cyclone track and vortex details were obtained...     

Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments

This study investigates the intensity change in typhoons and storm surges surrounding the Korean Peninsula under global warming conditions as obtained from the MPI_ECHAM5 climate model using the A1B series. The authors use the Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function to estimate future background fields for typhoon simulations from twenty-first-century prediction results. A series of numerical experiments applies WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and POM (Prinston Ocean Model) models to simulate two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), and associated storm surges under real historical and future warming conditions. Applying numerical experiments to two typhoons, this study found that their central pressure dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future sea surface temperature (a warming of 3.9 °C for 100 years) over the East China Sea (Exp. 1). The associated enhancement of storm surge height ranged from 16 to 67 cm along the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula. However, when the study considered global warming conditions for other atmospheric variables such as sea-level pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind in the typhoon simulations (Exp. 2), the intensities of the two typhoons and their associated surge heights scarcely increased compared to the results of Exp. 1. Analyzing projected atmospheric variables, the authors found that air temperatures at the top of the storm around 200 hPa increased more than those at the surface in tropical and mid-latitudes. The reduced vertical temperature difference provided an unfavorable condition in the typhoon’s development even under conditions of global warming. This suggests that global warming may not always correlate with a large increase in the number of intense cyclones and/or an increase in associated storm surges.     

Prediction of piezometric surfaces and drain spacing for horizontal drain design

Horizontal drains, used independently or as part of a more complex remediation scheme, are frequently installed to mitigate the effects of increased groundwater in slope stabilization projects. Due to a general trial and error approach to their design, the need for improved design practices has been recognized. The procedures established by Crenshaw and Santi in 2004 made some advances in this direction, but did not account for slopes with drains that were not horizontal or for sloping low-permeability layers underneath the slide mass. Furthermore, the method outlined by Crenshaw and Santi is time-consuming and requires some trial and error calculations to achieve convergence. Therefore, the method has been modified to account for nonhorizontal elements, and a horizontal drain spreadsheet has been developed to streamline the design for projects where horizontal drains will be installed. The horizontal drain spreadsheet may be used to: (1) predict a conservative piezometric profile in a drained slope for use in slope stability analyses, (2) predict piezometric heads in any single piezometer in a drainage field, and (3) predict drain spacing for design purposes. This document explains the revisions to Crenshaw and Santi’s procedures and provides instructions for applying the method. The instructions may be used for hand calculations, but are specifically intended for use with the horizontal drain spreadsheet. The spreadsheet may be used for slopes composed of silty or clayey sands, silts, and silty or sandy clays.