Palaeoclimatic record from a loess–soil profile in northeastern Bulgaria—II. Correlation with global climatic events during the Pleistocene

Magnetic susceptibility ( χ ) variations and the behaviour of the ratio of susceptibility to saturation magnetization ( χ/J _s ) along the loess/palaeosol section at Koriten (NE Bulgaria) are used to deduce climatic changes during the Pleistocene in southeastern Europe. A good correlation of susceptibility variations with the astronomically tuned oxygen isotope record from ODP site 677 enables us to propose a more precise dating of the upper part of the Bulgarian loess complex. Close correspondence between susceptibility and δ ^{1 8} O records demonstrates the global significance of the palaeoclimatic signal recorded, although differences in relative amplitudes of χ and χ/J _s and δ ^{1 8} O create difficulties in making quantitative estimates of the climatic humidity in the past. The role of local factors affecting the palaeoclimatic mineral magnetic record deduced from the profile studied in Bulgaria is discussed.     

Concentration–discharge relationships describe solute and sediment mobilization,reaction, and transport at event and longer timescales

Concentration–discharge (C‐Q) relationships reflect material sources, storage, reaction, proximity, and transport in catchments. Differences in hydrologic pathways and connectivity influence observed C‐Q patterns at the catchment outlet. We examined solute and sediment C‐Q relationships at event and interannual timescales in a small mid‐Atlantic (USA) catchment. We found systematic differences in the C‐Q behaviour of geogenic/exogenous solutes (e.g., calcium and nitrate), biologically associated solutes (e.g., dissolved organic carbon), and particulate materials (e.g., total suspended solids). Negative log(C)–log(Q) regression slopes, indicating dilution, were common for geogenic solutes whereas positive slopes, indicating concentration increase, were common for biologically associated solutes. Biologically associated solutes often exhibited counterclockwise hysteresis during events whereas geogenic solutes exhibited clockwise hysteresis. Across event and interannual timescales, solute C‐Q patterns are linked to the spatial distribution of hydrologic sources and the timing and sequence of hydro‐biogeochemical source contributions to the stream. Groundwater is the primary source of stormflow during the earliest and latest stages of events, whereas precipitation and soil water become increasingly connected to the stream near peakflow. This sequence and timing of flowpath connectivity results in dilution and clockwise hysteresis for geogenic/exogenous solutes and concentration increase and counterclockwise hysteresis for biologically associated solutes. Particulate materials demonstrated positive C‐Q slopes over the long‐term and clockwise hysteresis during individual events. Drivers of particulate and solute C‐Q relationships differ, based on longitudinal and lateral expansion of active channels and changing shear stresses with increasing flows. Although important distinctions exist between the drivers of solute and sediment C‐Q relationships, overall solute and sediment C‐Q patterns at event and interannual timescales reflect consistent catchment hydro‐biogeochemical processes.     

Comparison of three geostatistical methods for hydrofacies simulation: a test on alluvial sediments

The hydrodispersive properties of porous sediments are strongly influenced by the heterogeneity at fine scales, which can be modeled by geostatistical simulations. In order to improve the assessment of the properties of three different geostatistical simulation methods (Sequential indicator simulation, SISIM; Transition probability geostatistical simulation, T-PROGS; Multiple point simulation, MPS) a comparison test at different scales was performed for a well-exposed aquifer analogue. In the analysed volume (approximately 30,000?m³) four operative hydrofacies have been recognised: very fine sand and silt, sand, gravelly sand and open framework gravel. Several equiprobable realizations were computed with SISIM, MPS and T-PROGS for a test volume of approximately 400?m³ and for the entire volume, and the different outcomes were compared with visual inspection and connectivity analysis of the very or poorly permeable structures. The comparison of the different simulations shows that the geological model is best reproduced when the simulations are realised separately for each highest rank depositional element and subsequently merged. Moreover, the three methods yield different images of the volume; in particular MPS is efficient in mapping the geometries of the most represented hydrofacies, whereas SISIM and T-PROGS can account for the distribution of the less represented facies.     

Failed magmatic eruptions: late-stage cessation of magma ascent

When a volcano becomes restless, a primary question is whether the unrest will lead to an eruption. Here we recognize four possible outcomes of a magmatic intrusion: “deep intrusion”, “shallow intrusion”, “sluggish/viscous magmatic eruption”, and “rapid, often explosive magmatic eruption”. We define “failed eruptions” as instances in which magma reaches but does not pass the “shallow intrusion” stage, i.e., when magma gets close to, but does not reach, the surface. Competing factors act to promote or hinder the eventual eruption of a magma intrusion. Fresh intrusion from depth, high magma gas content, rapid ascent rates that leave little time for enroute degassing, opening of pathways, and sudden decompression near the surface all act to promote eruption, whereas decreased magma supply from depth, slow ascent, significant enroute degassing and associated increases in viscosity, and impingement on structural barriers all act to hinder eruption. All of these factors interact in complex ways with variable results, but often cause magma to stall at some depth before reaching the surface. Although certain precursory phenomena, such as rapidly escalating seismic swarms or rates of degassing or deformation, are good indicators that an eruption is likely, such phenomena have also been observed in association with intrusions that have ultimately failed to erupt. A perpetual difficulty with quantifying the probability of eruption is a lack of data, particularly on instances of failed eruptions. This difficulty is being addressed in part through the WOVOdat database. Papers in this volume will be an additional resource for scientists grappling with the issue of whether or not an episode of unrest will lead to a magmatic eruption.     

Natural and anthropogenic heavy metals in estuarine cohesive sediments: geochemistry and bioavailability

The geochemistry, mineralogy, and grain size distribution of several estuarine cohesive sediment samples from potentially human-influenced areas without such an influence were analyzed to determine the natural heavy metal content and evaluate its impact on the Bahía Blanca estuarine environment. The data were compared with different ranges of concentrations for heavy metals in marine sediments established by the NOAA Screening Quick Reference Tables in which values range from background levels to those considered toxic to the marine environment. Our total heavy metal contents were below the established hazardous levels in all the analyzed samples, even though the potentially human-influenced areas (harbors, industry, urban spread) showed the highest total concentration values as well as greater percentages of bioavailable compounds. This would imply a low and not extensive anthropogenic input into the environment. The relatively high proportions in which Cd, Pb, and Cr appear as bioavailable compounds at some sites not influenced by human activity suggest the presence of a natural source for these elements. This could be attributed to the weathering of naturally occurring volcanic minerals, indicating that special care must be taken when monitoring of sediment for anthropogenic activity is carried out within this environment. According to the results obtained, and in order to minimize the environmental impact caused by periodic water injection dredging, relocation of sewage outfalls from vessel mooring areas into open waters is strongly recommended.     

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo (??COral Mortality and Bleaching Output??)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1?C1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.     

Evaluating the sensitivity of DRASTIC using different data sources,interpretations and mapping approaches

When used in a comprehensive risk assessment framework, aquifer vulnerability maps are a tool to identify the relative susceptibility of the groundwater from sources of contamination at the land surface. The DRASTIC method was designed for use over large areas with a wide variety of geological and hydrogeologic settings as a screening tool in groundwater protection and management. In this study, a series of vulnerability maps were made for the Greater Oliver area, in south central Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to test the sensitivity of the methodology to changes in input data type, interpretation, and mapping approaches. The study also illustrates how DRASTIC can be modified for use in areas of limited geological variability, where it may be important for smaller-scale changes in vulnerability to be recognized. Maps were produced using the original DRASTIC rating tables, a set of expanded tables using the original properties but modified ranges to accommodate the variability of data in the valley bottom region, and alternate tables, with modified properties and ranges. Differences in vulnerability rating for the maps using selected combinations and data interpretations are compared to the map using original DRASTIC rating tables using visual and statistical methods. One map was generated using expert hydrological knowledge. The modified tables allowed a greater amount of variability to be expressed in the valley bottom area compared to using the original tables and methods, and could provide a reasonable approach for assessing local scale variability for source water protection planning.     

Effects of Microcystis aeruginosa on life history of water flea Daphnia magna

Cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic freshwater systems are a worldwide problem, creating adverse effects for many aquatic organisms by producing toxic microcystins and deteriorating water quality. In this study, microcystins (MCs) in Microcystis aeruginosa, and Daphnia magna exposed to M. aeruginosa, were analyzed by HPLC-MS, and the effects of M. aeruginosa on D. magna were investigated. When D. magna was exposed to M. aeruginosa for more than 2 h, Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) was detected. When exposed to 1.5 × 106, 3 × 106, 0.75 × 107, and 1.5 × 107 cell/mL of M. aeruginosa for 96 h, average survival of D. magna for treatments were 23.33%, 33.33%, 13.33%, 16.67%, respectively, which were significantly lower than the average 100% survival in the control group (P < 0.05). The adverse effects of M. aeruginosa on body length, time for the first brood, brood numbers, gross fecundity, lifespan, and population growth of D. magna were density-dependent. These results suggest that the occurrence of M. aeruginosa blooms could strongly inhibit the population growth of D. magna through depression of survival, individual growth and gross fecundity. In the most serious situations, M. aeruginosa blooms could undermine the food web by eliminating filter-feeding zooplankton, which would destroy the ecological balance of aquaculture water bodies.     

Taphonomy at two contiguous coastal rockshelters in Panama: Preliminary observations focusing on fishing and curing fish

The scarcity of animal products negatively influences nutrition in tropical inland areas, which lack large rivers. Consuming cured marine fish mitigates this deficiency. In Panama, trading cured fish from coastal to inland sites is documented ethnohistorically and can be inferred from the current archaeozoological record. Very large numbers of marine fish remains have been recovered at pre-Columbian sites located on and around Parita Bay, a mangrove-fringed estuary on the central Pacific coast. At Sitio Sierra, a farming village 12 km inland from the active marine shore, more than 70% of fish remains deposited between ca. 1800 and 1500 uncalibrated radiocarbon years BP proved to be of marine origin. Two small rock-shelters located downriver from Sitio Sierra and now 2.6 km from the marine shore (Vampiros-1 and Vampiros-2) show evidence for having been used intensively for fishing and preparing fish between ca. 2200 and 1900 BP. A prior model based on air photograph interpretation and sedimentological analyses of marine and terrigenous sediments suggest that these shelters would have been on or very near the active marine shore at this time. A much earlier occupation at Vampiros-1 dating to ca. 11,500–7700 BP corresponds to pre-agricultural (Paleoindian) and early agricultural (Early Preceramic) people who camped occasionally in this shelter when the transgressing ocean was in the process of flooding Parita Bay. No shell or bone was recovered in this earlier cultural component. In the more recent (2200–1900 BP), component abundant remains of marine mollusks and crustaceans and vertebrate bones (mostly fish) are in excellent condition. A synopsis of the geological and cultural history of the Vampiros shelters is followed by preliminary observations on the relationship between pre-Columbian human activities and these sites’ formation processes, soil chemistry, bone integrity and animal species. Evidence is accruing for human impacts on fish skeletons resulting from the in situ preparation of fish (i.e., gutting, cutting and smoking) providing the opportunity to compare our archaeofaunal data with the results of Irit Zohar's ethno-archeological research, which identified how preparing fish for salting and sun-drying at present-day Panamanian fishing villages around Parita Bay affects the fish skeleton physically and proportionally. There is a strong possibility that the Vampiros shelters were used to provision inland sites like Sitio Sierra with inshore marine fish although we cannot yet ascertain the means by which coastal foodstuffs may have arrived at the latter site.