On the estimation of accuracy for global models of gravitational field of the earth

The methods and techniques for estimating the accuracy of global models of the Earth’s gravity field in the form of spherical harmonic expansion of the geopotential are analyzed. Various methods for obtaining the a priori and a posteriori estimates for the accuracy are considered and classified. The application of different approaches is illustrated by numerical examples for nine models, including those recently developed using the modern methods of space geodesy. The basic requirements for the database and software for estimating the accuracy are formulated.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

THE STUDY OF DEFORESTATION PROCESSES WITH SPACE IMAGES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GDR

The use of intermediate-scale space imagery in the analysis of current and ancient deforestation is exemplified by a case study in the southwestern quarter of East Germany, an area heavily deforested as a result of mining and agricultural activities. More specifically a mosaic of 1:1,000,000-scale Landsat imagery was used to compile a series of maps (of modern landscapes, forests, land use), the comparison of which provided an inventory of the causes and extent of deforestation over the study area. This in turn permitted linkages between losses of forest cover and other environmental problems to be identified. Translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon Inc., Washington, DC 20005 from: Geografiya i prirodnyye resursy, 1988, No. 1, pp. 165-173.     

The light transmission and seiche depth of Izmir Bay,western Turkey

Izmir Bay is one of the most polluted estuaries in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The inner part of the Bay (Inner Bay) is heavily affected by domestic and industrial discharge. As a result of these loads, strong eutrophication occurs in the Inner Bay, which is temporally anaerobic. The ecologically sensitive approach of the local authorities during the last decade has given rise to a wide variety of monitoring and research studies on this bay. On the other hand, the municipality of Izmir started to operate wastewater treatment facilities since January 2000. The Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology — Izmir (IMST) with its research vessel R/V K Piri Reis has been conducting an intensive monitoring program since 1988 and especially during the recent few years. These investigations provide an opportunity for the evaluation of the performance of the wastewater treatment plant in terms of the change in the optical properties of Izmir Bay water in a positive manner. The turbidity values measured in these monitoring studies indicate that the values have changed drastically after January 2000. Their spatial variation indicates that the values decrease from the Inner Bay towards the Aegean Sea. The turbidity (light transmission) values are measured with an automatic CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) system during each cruise. The seiche disc depth measurement is carried out only occasionally. The accuracy of the seiche disc depth is dependent on certain daylight conditions and depends on the operator. The seiche disc depth (D _s) is an important parameter to estimate primary production of organic matter (hereafter called production). A relation between light transmission (turbidity) value and seiche disc depth (D _s) is found with very good agreement. The correlations are very high (approximately 0.94) with slight seasonal variation.     

Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the weights-of-evidence and frequency ratio statistical methods in GIS environment – case study: Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (Romania)

Given the significant worldwide human and economic losses caused due to floods annually, reducing the negative consequences of these hazards is a major concern in development strategies at different spatial scales. A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential of accelerated surface run-off and consequently, of flash-flood occurrences. The methodology involves assessment and mapping in GIS environment of flash flood potential index (FFPI), by integrating two statistical methods: frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence. The methodology was applied for Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (340 \(\hbox {km}^{2}\)), located in the Carpathians Curvature region (Romania). Firstly, the areas with torrential phenomena were identified and the main factors controlling the surface run-off were selected (in this study nine geographical factors were considered). Based on the features of the considered factors, many classes were set for each of them. In the next step, the weights of each class/category of the considered factors were determined, by identifying their spatial relationships with the presence or absence of torrential phenomena. Finally, the weights for each class/category of geographical factors were summarized in GIS, resulting the FFPI values for each of the two statistical methods. These values were divided into five classes of intensity and were mapped. The final results were used to estimate the flash-flood potential and also to identify the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon. Thus, the high and very high values of FFPI characterize more than one-third of the study catchment. The result validation was performed by (i) quantifying the rate of the number of pixels corresponding to the torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results’ testing (validating area) and (ii) plotting the ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curve.     

Verification of the RAMS-based operational weather forecast system in the Valencia Region: a seasonal comparison

Natural Hazards - The meteorological model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in its version 4.4 has been applied operationally within the Valencia Region. The model output is being used...     

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The advanced weather research and forecasting model is used to investigate the influence of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes on intensity and structure of the storm Phailin (2013). Five simulations are conducted with five PBL schemes; Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor?Yamada?Nakanishi?Niino order2.5 (MYNN2), Assymetric Convective Model2 (ACM2), Medium Range Forecast (MRF), and Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac). The simulation duration includes the pre???intensification and rapid intensification phase of Phailin before landfall. Results indicate that during the pre???intensification phase, storm’s track and intensity are not much sensitivity to PBL but structural changes are noted. A significant sensitivity of track and intensity to PBL parameterizations are found during rapid intensification phase. BouLac and MRF produced two extremes with 39 hPa intense and 16 km compact storm for BouLac than MRF. Further analysis reveals an outward movement of air parcel just above the boundary layer which causes spin-down for YSU and MYNN2. BouLac is associated with stronger eddy diffusivity and moisture fluxes within the boundary layer and stronger cyclonic vorticity just above the boundary layer than other experiments. Stronger cyclonic vorticity above the boundary layer in BouLac favors intense updraft, facilitating more moisture transport from the boundary layer to upper layers aiding stronger secondary circulation and robustly intensifying the storm. A relatively deeper and drier inflow layer associated with weaker cyclonic vorticity just above the boundary layer reduces the moisture transport and weaken the secondary circulation for MRF than others.     

Six new chrysophycean stomatocysts ornamented with reticulum from the Great Xing’an Mountains, China

Six new chrysophycean stomatocysts ornamented with reticulum were illustrated based on SEM observation. They were described following the guidelines of the International Statospore Working Group (ISWG). All samples were collected from the Great Xing’an Mountains, China. Their taxonomic characteristics and habitats were described to provide new information on the biodiversity of chrysophycean stomatocysts. As is common with many morphotypes, their biological affinities remain unknown.     

Tracing infiltration and recharge using stable isotope in Taihang Mt., North China

The groundwater in headwater region is an important recharge source for the adjacent mountain-front plain. In order to reveal the relationship among precipitation, soil water and groundwater, from June to September in 2004, stable isotopes (deuterium and oxygen-18) in precipitation and soil waters at the depths of 10, 20, 30, 50, 70, 90, and 110 cm were analyzed at two sites covered by black locust (Robinia Pseudoacia L.) (Site A) and grass predominated by Themeda triandra (T. japonica (Willd.) Tanaka) and Bothriochloa ischaemum (B. ischaemum (L.) Keng) (Site B) in an experimental catchment at Taihang Mt., North China, respectively. The δ¹⁸O of precipitation in daily rain events shows large variations (−13.3 to −4.3‰) with a mean of 8.1‰. The δ¹⁸O and δ D of soil waters along profiles in two sites suggest that the influence of canopy cover was just up to 10 cm in top soil water. The soil water moved over the zero flux plane at 70 cm in-depth is expected to escape the evaporative effect at the end of September in both sites. The results show that the stable isotope, instead of tritium as tradition, can be used to trace the soil water behaviors based on the movement of isotopic peak along the vertical profiles in this semi-arid and semi-humid mountainous region. The infiltration depths of soil water in Taihang Mt. are 12 and 10 mm/day from June to September in 2004 in Site A and Site B, respectively. Tracing by stable isotope, recharge fluxes of soil water to local groundwater are of 3.8 and 3.2 mm/day in Site A and Site B, respectively. The results provide desirable information for assessment of local groundwater resources. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The results of the third geodetic campaign in the local geodynamic test area of the MAO NAS of Ukraine

The high-precision coordinates of reference (reduction) points of stations located in the geodynamic area of the MAO NAS of Ukraine were determined in the local topocentric coordinate system. The local geodetic ties (eccentricities) between the reference points of the GPS station “Kiev/Goloseev” and satellite laser location station “Goloseev-Kiev” that are equal to 100.2358 m, ?11.0398 m, ?85.8256 m on the X, Y, Z axes, respectively, were obtained in the ITRF97 system as of the epoch 1997.0. The coordinates of the reference point of the station “Goloseev-Kiev” were determined in the ITRF97 system as of the epoch 1997.0 by adding local geodetic ties to the coordinates of the reference point of the GPS station “Kiev/Goloseev.” They were compared with the estimates of the coordinates of these stations obtained by the methods of cosmic geodesy and geodynamics. The local deformations of the geodynamic area that took place in the 1997–2006 period were estimated and the conclusion was made about the existence of certain trends with respect to the local displacements of the points of the geodynamic area of the MAO NAS of Ukraine.