Granulometric study of the Hanaupah Fan,Death Valley,California

We applied new granulometric techniques to the various surfaces of the Hanaupah Fan, Death Valley, California, namely the Q1 surface, with an estimated age of 800–490 ka, the younger Q2 (170–105 ka) and Q3 (50–14 ka) surfaces, the <14 ka deposits of the incised channel, and to a (c. 14 ka) Lake Manly shoreline deposit at the northern periphery of the fan. We used these techniques to generate quantitative information on surface clast grain-size distributions, clast sphericity, roundness, and clast orientation to provide a data set that could be used to define fan-segment surfaces, and to help interpret fan genesis. Grain-size analyses were carried out by photo-sieving of 139 surface pictures, by petrographic identification of samples taken in the incised channel, and by identification and measuring of the largest clasts (1452 measurements) on the Q3 surface. The results show that all fan-segment surfaces, regardless of age, have similar size distributions, with a well-defined gravel mode of −2·3 to −3·0 phi, and are poorly to moderately sorted. Samples from the incised channel have distributions that are very similar to each other, regardless of distance from the apex, but display reduced sorting compared to the fan surfaces (which largely lack fines, perhaps from winnowing by secondary overland flow). Only the shoreline deposit is different from the other elements, showing a much narrower, well-defined gravel mode (−3·0 phi), and is moderately well sorted. Sphericity and roundness of clasts on all surfaces show only minor differences, similar to the other sedimentary parameters, indicating a remarkable homogeneity of the surfaces of the sediment body. In addition, measurements of the largest clasts (>100 cm long axis) on the Q3 surface showed no discernible trend either with radial distance or with rock type. These data suggest large depositional episodes that produce extensive sedimentary units without differentiation relative to distance from the source. Of the examined parameters, clast orientation is the best predictor of relative age of fan surfaces. Clast orientation in the main channel is bimodal, i.e. the long axes of clasts are either at right angles or parallel to transport direction. This bimodality disappears with increasing age, and the preferred orientation becomes unimodal (long clast axes normal to transport direction) on the Q1 surface. Although the causes of this change are still in debate, use of this parameter as a relative-age dating tool seems possible. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal Gravity Variations near Shrinking Vatnajökull Ice Cap, Iceland

Repeated gravity measurements were carried out from 1991 until 1999 at sites SE of Vatnajökull, Iceland, to estimate the mass flow and deformation accompanying the shrinking of the ice cap. Published GPS data show an uplift of about 13 ± 5 mm/a near the ice margin. A gravity decrease of –2 ± 1 μGal/a relative to the Höfn base station, was observed for the same sites. Control measurements at the Höfn station showed a gravity decrease of –2 ± 0.5 µGal/a relative to the station RVIK 5473 at Reykjavík (about 250 km from Höfn). This is compatible, as a Bouguer effect, with a 10 ± 3 mm/a uplift rate of the IGS point at Höfn and an uplift rate of ~20 mm/a near the ice margin. Although the derived gravity change rates at individual sites have large uncertainties, the ensemble of the rates varies systematically and significantly with distance from the ice. The relationship between gravity and elevation changes and the shrinking ice mass is modelled as response to the loading history. The GPS data can be explained by 1-D modelling (i.e., an earth model with a 15-km thick elastic lithosphere and a 7·10¹⁷ Pa·s asthenosphere viscosity), but not the gravity data. Based on 2-D modelling, the gravity data favour a low-viscosity plume in the form of a cylinder of 80 km radius and 10¹⁷ to 10¹⁸ Pa·s viscosity below a 6 km-thick elastic lid, embedded in a layered PREM-type earth, although the elevation data are less well explained by this model. Strain-porosity-hydrology effects are likely to enhance the magnitude of the gravity changes, but need verification by drilling. More accurate data may resolve the discrepancies or suggest improved models.     

Improving Seismic Resolution Through Array Processing Techniques

Seismic arrays, first introduced in the late 1950s to detect underground nuclear explosions, have helped to improve our knowledge about the structure of the Earth for the last 40 years. During these years, numerous array processing methods have been developed that use the high signal coherence and accurate timing of array data to generate high-resolution images of Earth structure. Here, we present an overview of resolution issues related to seismic array studies of Earth structure by first introducing basic array processing techniques and then discussing more advanced techniques applied to array data recently. The increase of seismic stations deployed in experiments or permanently in many regions of the globe allows a much denser sampling of the seismic wavefield. This dense sampling enables the adaptation of controlled source analysis techniques for the study of Earth structure using earthquakes with higher resolution than previously possible. Here we will discuss different migration methods of teleseismic data that use the incidence angle information of scattered arrivals to obtain images of Earth structure. Finally, we show data examples how these methods can be used to increase our knowledge of the structure of the Earth’s deep interior.     

The Hanaupah-Fan shoreline deposit at Tule Spring, a gravelly shoreline deposit of Pleisticene Lake Manly, Death Valley, California, USA

The Hanaupah-Fan Shoreline Deposit (HSD) is an as yet undescribed occurrence of shoreline sediments of late Pleistocene Lake Manly in Death Valley, California. It is located in the southern part of Death Valley, at the northeastern periphery of Hanaupah Fan. The HSD is a gently sloping, WSW-ENE elongated ridge, about 600 m long, 165 m wide and 8 m high. Its surface extends from -12 to +28 m in elevation, i.e. it has a vertical range of 40 m. We interpret the deposit as a sediment body that extended from the Hanaupah Fan east into the lake. Rising lake level, and waves approaching both from the north and south eroded fan materials, and produced a sediment body with a complex architecture. Fetch for waves approaching from either direction was about 40 km. The sedimentary inventory consists of cross-stratified gravel beds of various size ranges, dipping towards the north, south, and east, and of horizontal berm gravel beds, and horizontal silt layers. A discordant gravel layer covers the entire surface of the deposit, probably produced by wave action during the last phase of lake regression. This uniform gravel layer forms a surface that is distinctly different from the surrounding fan surfaces. It is relatively fine grained, much better sorted, and densely packed. Rock varnish is very well developed, and imparts a dark color to the surface, which makes it easily recognizable on aerial photographs. No absolute age date is available as yet, but circumstantial evidence places the formation of the deposit at the peak of marine isotope stage 2 (Wisconsinan/Weichsellian glacial maximum)     

Cross-Level Inference in Political Science

Political Science research encounters inferences across levels of analysis; however, they are fraught with challenges. After introducing voting examples of aggregation bias, problems posed by aggregation bias are summarized more generally. Subsequently, the article reviews the major methodological approaches to overcome aggregation bias and to solve the ecological inference (disaggregation) problem. The article highlights the possibility that aggregation bias may lead governments to accept (or reject) international climate agreements when negotiating as blocs of countries as compared to the distribution of the preferences of all countries involved in the negotiations.     

The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets

While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these technologies. This study explores the impacts of technology limitations on greenhouse gas emission reductions using the integrated model IMAGE. It shows that the required short-term emission reductions to achieve long-term radiative forcing targets strongly depend on assumptions on the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Limited availability of mitigation technologies which are relatively important in the long run implies that lower short-term emission levels are required. For instance, limited bio-energy availability reduces the optimal 2020 emission level by more than 4 GtCO₂eq in order to compensate the reduced availability of negative emissions from bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the long run. On the other hand, reduced mitigation potential of options that are used in 2020 can also lead to a higher optimal level for 2020 emissions. The results also show the critical role of BECCS for achieving low radiative forcing targets in IMAGE. Without these technologies achieving these targets become much more expensive or even infeasible.     

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.