Observational study of the seasonality of the submonthly and intraseasonal signal over the tropics

Summary Atmospheric variability in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and tropospheric relative vorticity (VOR) over the South American region was studied from 1979 to 1996 using the complex Morlet wavelet function. The analyses focus on spatial variation in intraseasonal and submonthly scales. Scalograms were used to measure submonthly intraseasonal oscillations in convection, which were found to be predominant in the tropical regions. However, 7-day and 15-day oscillations were observed at tropical and extratropical latitudes in spring and winter, indicating that transient disturbances play a more prominent role. Regarding VOR, tropical energy intensities were highest in the spring and summer, whereas subtropical and extratropical energy intensities were highest in the autumn and winter. The dynamics of the 25-day and 45-day VOR oscillations indicates a possible correlation with Rossby waves over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, mainly during the summer. During winter, the 7-day and 15-day VOR oscillations are more frequent at higher latitudes and are enhanced along storm tracks. It was also observed that convection amplitudes in the regions of maximum intensity change appreciably from year to year and from season to season, showing that the behavior of the submonthly and intraseasonal oscillations is nonperiodic and correlates strongly with El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation years. These results confirm the efficiency of wavelet analysis for time-scale studies of atmospheric variability.     

Coronal disturbances

Time lapse movies acquired with the Sacramento Peak Observatory 6-in filter coronagraph very infrequently show dramatic transient events. Many of these events (at 1.04 < r/r < 1.20) are correlated with H activity at the limb, especially with large surges and eruptive prominences. Metric or centrimetric radio bursts are found associated with certain types of 5303 coronal events. The heights to which such disturbances will propagate can often be estimated from the green line movie data. We report the results of a study of all the examples of such transients observed during the last 16 years.     

Sedimentological analysis of two drill cores through the crater moat‐filling breccia,Flynn Creek impact structure,Tennessee

Sedimentological (line‐logging) analysis of two drill cores, FC77‐3 and FC67‐3, situated, respectively, in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants of the Flynn Creek impact structure's crater‐moat area reveals that the ~27 m thick crater moat‐filling breccia consists of three subequal parts. These parts, which were deposited during early modification stage of this marine‐target impact structure, are distinguished on the basis of vertical trends in sorting, grain size, and counts of clasts per meter in comparison with other well‐known marine‐target impact structures, namely Lockne, Tvären, and Chesapeake Bay. The lower part is interpreted to represent mainly slump deposits, and the middle part is interpreted to represent a stage intermediate between slump and marine resurge, that is, a traction flow driven by overriding suspension flow. The upper part (size graded, and relatively well sorted and fine grained) is interpreted to represent marine resurge flow only. The upper part is capped by a relatively thin and relatively fine‐grained calcarenite to calcisiltite deposit.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Star counts in M15 onU,B andV plates

We present new counts of stars in M15, using plates inB, V andU. We are able to explore relatively close to the central parts of the cluster (0.1 pc) and we derive the best fitting parameters for the star distribution.     

Intrusive processes at ocean ridges: Evidence from the sheeted dyke complex of Masirah, Oman

Masirah Island largely consists of a late Mesozoic ophiolite which includes extensive areas of near-vertical, ENE—WSW striking, sheeted dykes. Previously the possibility has been suggested of a correlation between the similarly-aged ophiolites of Masirah and the Semail Complex of the Oman Mts. However, the Masirah ENE–WSW trend contrasts with N—S dyke trends from the Wadi Jizi area of the Semail, possibly suggesting two unrelated spreading centres. The dykes pass up into a pillow lava—minor sediment sequence, down into both layered and unlayered gabbros and are bounded to the west by a major N—S mélange zone which may have originated as a ridge transform fault. Age relations of the dykes and the gabbros are complex: the dykes contain a variable proportion of gabbro screens representing earlier crystallization, but they are also intruded by several small gabbro bodies which are themselves cut by still later dykes. The lava and dyke—gabbro screen sequence shows evidence of metamorphism from zeolite to low amphibolite grade. This metamorphism was caused by ridge hydrothermal activity which appears to have been effective approximately to the lower levels of the dykes. The rapid passage from low-amphibolite dykes to fresh gabbro suggests lithological control of the metamorphism. A combination of structural, geochemical and mineral phase studies may indicate generation in a slow spreading ridge environment and near-ridge metamorphism caused by a geothermal gradient of approximately 200°C/km.     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

On the instability of weakly radially anisotropic star clusters

We discuss contradictions existing in the literature in the problem on the stability of collisionless spherical stellar systems, which are the simplest anisotropic generalization of the well-known polytropic models. On the one hand, calculations of the growth rates within the framework of a linear stability theory and N-body simulations suggest that these systems should become stable when the parameter s characterizing the degree of anisotropy of the stellar velocity distribution becomes lower than some critical value s _crit > 0. On the other hand, according to Palmer and Papaloizou, the growth rate should be nonzero up to the isotropic limit s = 0. Using our method of determining the eigenmodes of stellar systems, we show that even though the mode growth rates in weakly radially anisotropic systems of this type are nonzero, they are exponentially small, i.e., decrease as γ ∝ exp(−a/s) when s → 0. For slightly radially anisotropic systems with a finite lifetime, this actually implies stability.     

青藏高原及邻近地区地壳与上地幔剪切波三维速度结构

本文利用30个基准台所记录的238条长周期面波资料,经过适配滤波和分格频散反演,得到中国大陆及邻区147个分格10—105s的纯路径频散,进而反演出青藏高原及邻近地区深至170km的剪切波三维速度结构.研究表明,青藏高原中西部地区和东部地区的地壳平均厚度分别为70±7km和65±7km,地壳平均剪切波速度分别为3.55和3.62km/s,上地幔顶盖平均速度分别为4.63和4.61km/s; 岩石层厚度均为120±10km;东部地区下地壳内30—40km深度处普遍存在低速层;青藏高原及其东侧的上地幔低速层内有横贯东西且明显向上隆起的低速腔.滇西缅北地区的地壳厚45±5km,上地壳及下地壳内都有低速层;上地幔顶盖的速度为4.42km/s,比青藏高原本体及恒河平原都低.恒河平原地壳厚34±2km,速度平均为3.45km/s;上地幔顶盖厚86±10km,速度平均为4.63km/s,顶盖内55—83km深处有一个低速夹层.