Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Statewide Estimates of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits on a statewide basis offer a different perspective on the nation's undiscovered resources of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Mean estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits statewide were extracted from the estimates of undiscovered deposits nationwide. More than 50 undiscovered deposits are estimated to occur in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Estimating the number of undiscovered deposits statewide serves as a measure of a state's total remaining mineral resources in known conventional deposit types.     

Flow and form in rehabilitation of large-river ecosystems: An example from the Lower Missouri River

On large, intensively engineered rivers like the Lower Missouri, the template of the physical habitat is determined by the nearly independent interaction of channel form and flow regime. We evaluated the interaction between flow and form by modeling four combinations of modern and historical channel form and modern and historical flow regimes. The analysis used shallow, slow water (shallow-water habitat, SWH, defined as depths between 0 and 1.5 m, and current velocities between 0 and 0.75 m/s) as an indicator of habitat that has been lost on many intensively engineered rivers and one that is thought to be especially important in rearing of young fishes. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for modern and historical channels of the Lower Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri, indicate substantial differences between the two channels in total availability and spatial characteristics of SWH. In the modern channel, SWH is maximized at extremely low flows and in overbank flows, whereas the historical channel had substantially more SWH at all discharges and SWH increased with increasing discharge. The historical channel form produced 3–7 times the SWH area of the modern channel regardless of flow regime. The effect of flow regime is evident in increased within-year SWH variability with the natural flow regime, including significant seasonal peaks of SWH associated with spring flooding. Comparison with other reaches along the Lower Missouri River indicates that a) channel form is the dominant control of the availability of habitat even in reaches where the hydrograph is more intensively altered, and b) rehabilitation projects that move toward the historical condition can be successful in increasing topographic diversity and thereby decreasing sensitivity of the availability of habitat to flow regime. The relative efficacy of managing flow and form in creating SWH is useful information toward achieving socially acceptable rehabilitation of the ecosystem in large river systems.     

The sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the Amur River and North Sakhalin Basin: new evidence from seismic stratigraphy and Neogene–Recent sediment budgets

The North Sakhalin Basin in the western Sea of Okhotsk has been the main site of sedimentation from the Amur River since the Early Miocene. In this article, we present regional seismic reflection data and a Neogene–Recent sediment budget to constrain the evolution of the basin and its sedimentary fill, and consider the implications for sediment flux from the Amur River, in particular testing models of continental‐scale Neogene drainage capture. The Amur‐derived basin‐fill history can be divided into five distinct stages: the first Amur‐derived sediments (>21–16.5 Ma) were deposited during a period of transtension along the Sakhalin‐Hokkaido Shear Zone, with moderately high sediment flux to the basin (71 Mt year^?1). The second stage sequence (16.5–10.4 Ma) was deposited following the cessation of transtension, and was characterised by a significant reduction in sediment flux (24 Mt year^?1) and widespread retrogradation of deltaic sediments. The third (10.4–5.3 Ma) and fourth (5.3–2.5 Ma) stages were characterised by progradation of deltaic sediments and an associated increase in sediment flux (48–60 Mt year^?1) to the basin. Significant uplift associated with regional transpression started during this time in southeastern Sakhalin, but the north‐eastward propagating strain did not reach the NE shelf of Sakhalin until the Pleistocene (<2.5 Ma). This uplift event, still ongoing today, resulted in recycling of older deltaic sediments from the island of Sakhalin, and contributed to a substantially increased total sediment flux to the adjacent basinal areas (165 Mt year^?1). Adjusted rates to discount these local erosional products (117 Mt year^?1) imply an Amur catchment‐wide increase in denudation rates during the Late Pliocene–Pleistocene; however, this was likely a result of global climatic and eustatic effects, combined with tectonic processes within the Amur catchment and possibly a smaller drainage capture event by the Sungari tributary, rather than continental‐scale drainage capture involving the entire upper Amur catchment.     

Origin of ultramafic xenoliths containing exsolved pyroxenes from Hualalai Volcano,Hawaii

Hualalai Volcano, Hawaii, is best known for the abundant and varied xenoliths included in the historic 1800 Kaupulehu alkalic basalt flow. Xenoliths, which range in composition from dunite to anorthosite, are concentrated at 915-m elevation in the flow. Rare cumulate ultramafic xenoliths, which include websterite, olivine websterite, wehrlite, and clinopyroxenite, display complex pyroxene exsolution textures that indicate slow cooling. Websterite, olivine websterite, and one wehrlite are spinel-bearing orthopyroxene +olivine cumulates with intercumulus clinopyroxene +plagioclase. Two wehrlite samples and clinopyroxenite are spinel-bearing olivine cumulates with intercumulus clinopyroxene+orthopyroxene + plagioclase. Two-pyroxene geothermometry calculations, based on reconstructed pyroxene compositions, indicate that crystallization temperatures range from 1225° to 1350° C. Migration or unmixing of clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene stopped between 1045° and 1090° C. Comparisons of the abundance of K₂O in plagioclase and the abundances of TiO₂ and Fe₂O₃in spinel of xenoliths and mid-ocean ridge basalt, and a single ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr determination, indicate that these Hualalai xenoliths are unrelated to mid-ocean ridge basalt. Similarity between the crystallization sequence of these xenoliths and the experimental crystallization sequence of a Hawaiian olivine tholeiite suggest that the parental magma of the xenoliths is Hualalai tholeiitic basalt. Xenoliths probably crystallized between about 4.5 and 9 kb. The 155°–230° C of cooling which took place over about 120 ka — the age of the youngest Hualalai tholeiitic basalt — yield maximum cooling rates of 1.3×10^–3–1.91×10^–3 °C/yr. Hualalai ultramafic xenoliths with exsolved pyroxenes crystallized from Hualalai tholeiitic basalt and accumulated in a magma reservoir located between 13 and 28 km below sealevel. We suspect that this reservoir occurs just below the base of the oceanic crust at about 19 km below sealevel.     

Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.     

Sedimentary characteristics of paleo-aeolian dune sands of Salawusu Formation in the Salawusu River Valley

The Salawusu Formation of Milanggouwan section in Salawusu River Valley in-cludes 7 layers of paleo-mobile dune sands, and 4 layers of paleo-fixed and semi-fixed dune sands. Their structures have been observed and their grain size, surface textural features and several main chemical elements have been analyzed. The results showed that: 1) Some of the aeolian structural characteristics of these dune sands are similar to that of the recent dune sands. 2) They are also similar to the recent dune sands in grain size components, and parameters of Mz, σ, Sk and Kg, as well as in several main chemical components. 3) The scattergrams of Mz-σ and SiO2–Al2O3+TOFE and the probability curves of grain size showed that these paleo-dune sands are different from paleosols and fluvio-lacustrine facies, but are consistency with recent dune sands. 4) Quartz sands have well roundness and surface textural features such as dish-shaped pits, crescent-shaped pits, pockmarked pits, upturned cleavage plates, siliceous precipitates and siliceous crevasses, indicating that they had been carried for a long time by the wind. As the 11 layers of paleo-dune sands possess the aeolian characteristics in structure, grain size, surface textural features and chemical elements, the origin of their formation should be attributed to eolation.     

Late Miocene evaporite geochemistry of Lorca and Fortuna basins (Eastern Betics,SE Spain): Evidence of restriction and continentalization

The Lorca and Fortuna basins are two intramontane Neogene basins located in the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain). During the Late Tortonian—Early Messinian, marine and continental evaporites precipitated in these basins as a consequence of increased marine restriction and isolation. Here we show a stratigraphic correlation between the evaporite records of these basins based on geochemical indicators. We use SO₄ isotope compositions and Sr isotopic ratios in gypsum, and halite Br contents to characterize these units and to identify the marine or continental source of the waters feeding the evaporite basins. In addition, we review the available chronological information used to date these evaporites in Lorca (La Serrata Fm), including a thick saline deposit, that we correlate with the First Evaporitic Group in Fortuna (Los Baños Fm). This correlation is also supported by micropalaeontological data, giving a Late Tortonian age for this sequence. The Second Evaporitic Group, (Chicamo Fm), and the Third Evaporitic Group (Rambla Salada Fm) developed only in Fortuna during the Messinian. According to the palaeogeographical scheme presented here, the evaporites of the Lorca and Fortuna basins were formed during the Late Tortonian—Early Messinian, close to the Betic Seaway closure. Sulphate isotope compositions and Sr isotopic ratios of the Ribera Gypsum Mb, at the base of the Rambla Salada Fm (Fortuna basin), match those of the Late Messinian selenite gypsum beds in San Miguel de Salinas, in the near Bajo Segura basin (40 km to the East), and other Messinian Salinity Crisis gypsum deposits in the Mediterranean. According to these geochemical indicators and the uncertainty of the chronology of this unit, the assignment of the Rambla Salada Fm to the MSC cannot be ruled out.     

TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICANIST GEOGRAPHY IN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA

The question of what lies ahead is of particular concern for Latin Americanists. The last decade has witnessed a serious erosion of both the popularity of their specialty, and an equally troublesome reduction in employment opportunities. This paper uses Association of American Geographers (AAG) data bases to document the age-gender structure of contemporary Latin Americanist geographers, and projects likely compositional changes through the end of the century.