Optical properties of dust from Jupiter family comets

To try to define specific physical properties of the dust of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), we compare the light scattered by them. Amongst the more than 1000 JFCs, less than 200 are numbered, 40 of them being rather bright. In the present work we use data from the latter. In situ observations of three nuclei show low albedo surfaces. The albedo of the dust particles in the coma is low, with generally a red colour. The A(α)fρ product is a measure of cometary activity and secular changes. Images of different regions (jets and fans) give indications on the nucleus rotation and position of the emitting areas, as compared to the position of the rotation axis. Differences in physical properties between the particles in different regions are pointed out by differences in the linear polarization of the scattered light and by spectral variations in brightness and polarization. Jupiter family comets are considered as dust-poor comets. Tails and trails’ studies give an estimation of the size distribution of the particles. However the dust production rates depend on the largest particles (up to centimetre size), which are mainly observed in the trails where large dark compact particles are found. These dark particles are also responsible for the high polarization in the inner most coma of some comets. The meaning, in terms of physical properties, of the linear polarization is discussed through different examples such as 2P/Encke, 9P/Tempel 1 or the fragments of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3. Cometary outbursts and splitting events show that the properties of the dust ejected from the interior of the nucleus are similar to the ones of more active comets (new or with larger semi-major axis).     

Zircon and whole-rock Nd-Pb isotopic provenance of Middle and Upper Ordovician siliciclastic rocks, Argentine Precordillera

Graptolite‐bearing Middle and Upper Ordovician siliciclastic facies of the Argentine Precordillera fold‐thrust belt record the disintegration of a long‐lived Cambro‐Mid Ordovician carbonate platform into a series of tectonically partitioned basins. A combination of stratigraphic, petrographic, U‐Pb detrital zircon, and Nd‐Pb whole‐rock isotopic data provide evidence for a variety of clastic sediment sources. Four Upper Ordovician quartzo‐lithic sandstones collected in the eastern and central Precordillera yield complex U‐Pb zircon age spectra dominated by 1·05–1·10 Ga zircons, secondary populations of 1·22, 1·30, and 1·46 Ga, rare 2·2 and 1·8 Ga zircons, and a minor population (<2%) of concordant zircons in the 600–700 Ma range. Archaean‐age grains comprise <1% of all zircons analysed from these rocks. In contrast, a feldspathic arenite from the Middle Ordovician Estancia San Isidro Formation of the central Precordillera has two well‐defined peaks at 1·41 and 1·43 Ga, with no grains in the 600–1200 Ma range and none older than 1·70 Ga. The zircon age spectrum in this unit is similar to that of a Middle Cambrian quartz arenite from the La Laja Formation, suggesting that local basement rocks were a regional source of ca 1·4 Ga detrital zircons in the Precordillera Terrane from the Cambrian onwards. The lack of grains younger than 600 Ma in Upper Ordovician units reinforces petrographic data indicating that Ordovician volcanic arc sources did not supply significant material directly to these sedimentary basins. Nd isotopic data (n = 32) for Middle and Upper Ordovician graptolitic shales from six localities define a poorly mixed signal [ɛ_Nd(450 Ma) = −9·6 to −4·5] that becomes more regionally homogenized in Upper Ordovician rocks (−6·2 ± 1·0; T_DM = 1·51 ± 0·15 Ga; n = 17), a trend reinforced by the U‐Pb detrital zircon data. It is concluded that proximal, recycled orogenic sources dominated the siliciclastic sediment supply for these basins, consistent with rapid unroofing of the Precordillera Terrane platform succession and basement starting in Mid Ordovician time. Common Pb data for Middle and Upper Ordovician shales from the western and eastern Precordillera (n = 15) provide evidence for a minor (<30%) component that was likely derived from a high‐μ (U/Pb) terrane.     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

The motion of an emission-line region near the center of the galaxy NGC 4151

Possible orbits for the motion of a region in the gravitational field of the central body of the galaxy NGC 4151 are presented. The region is manifest through its line emission, observed in the red wing of the Hα, Pβ, and other broad lines. We carried out a computer selection of all Keplerian orbits for which the measured radial velocities of the emission-line region could be observed. We used radial-velocity data obtained by us at the Fesenkov Astrophysical Institute, as well as data from the literature. The computation results can be used to determine the mass range for the central body of NGC 4151 that provides the best agreement with the observational data: (61–65)× 10⁶ M _⊙. Suitably designed monitoring of active galactic nuclei can be used to verify these results, and to carry out similar analyses for other Seyfert galaxies.     

Behavior of the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect

Variations in the cosmic ray density during the initial phase of the Forbush effect during the first hours after the arrival of the interplanetary shock wave have been studied with the use of data on variations in the cosmic ray density with a rigidity of 10 GV obtained by the global survey method by the world network of neutron monitors in 1957?2012. It is found that behavior of this parameter after the arrival of the shock wave demonstrates high variability. A small (~1/5 of total number), though distinct, group of Forbush effects, in which the density of the cosmic ray increases (not decreases) after the arrival of the shock wave, is defined. As a whole, the initial variation in cosmic ray density is correlated with the Forbush effect magnitude and the strength of the associated geomagnetic disturbance.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.