The western Mediterranean climate: how will it respond to global warming?

The paper discusses the newly produced temperature and precipitation series from instrumental observations in the Western Mediterranean (WM) area, dating back to 1654. The two series had a continuous swing and unstable coupling passing from correlation to anti-correlation. Only after 1950 are they permanently anti-correlated with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. It is not clear how long this coupling will persist. The analysis of the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the WM temperature anomalies and their trends shows a certain variability from 1850 to 1950; later a strong coupling between NH and WM. Results suggest that the WM climate is approaching a turning point that might locally oppose the adverse effects of Global Warming.     

Application of SASHA to seismic hazard assessment for Portugal mainland

In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.     

Towards an operational use of space imagery for oil pollution monitoring in the Mediterranean basin: a demonstration in the Adriatic Sea

Studies of operational pollution carried out by European commission - Joint Research Centre in the Mediterranean Sea for the years 1999-2004 are briefly introduced. The specific analysis of the Adriatic Sea for the same period demonstrates that this area has been characterized by a relevant number of illegal discharges from ships. After setting the historical background of the project AESOP (aerial and satellite surveillance of operational pollution in the Adriatic Sea), the content, partners and aim of the project are presented. Finally, the results of the first phase of the AESOP project are presented. The results seem very encouraging. For the first time in the Adriatic, real time detection of oil spills in satellite images and an immediate verification by the Coast Guard has been undertaken. An exploratory activity has also been carried out in collaboration with the University of Ljubljana to use automatic information system (AIS) to identify the ships detected in the satellite images.     

Sedimentary record of Late Paleozoic rift and break-up in Northern Gondwana: a case history from the Thini Chu Group and Tamba-Kurkur Formation (Dolpo Tethys Himalaya,Nepal)

The Gottero unit of the Northern Apennines, Italy, is representative of the sedimentary cover of the Ligure-Piemontese oceanic lithosphere. This unit consists of a thick sedimentary sequence that includes Valanginian-Santonian pelagic deposits and Campanian-early Paleocene turbiditic deposits. The latter are overlain by early Paleocene trench deposits related to frontal tectonic erosion of the accretionary wedge slope. This sequence is interpreted as recording trenchward motion of the oceanic lithosphere.

The Gottero unit records a pre-Late Oligocene, complex deformation history related to subduction and accretion events. This deformation history has developed through underthrusting (D1a), underplating (D1b and D1c) and later exhumation (D2a and D2b) episodes. The folding phase related to the main underplating sub-phase (D1b) is predated by a sub-phase (D1a) connected to rapid fluid escape and followed by a sub-phase dominated by the development of shear zones (D1c). The D1b sub-phase is characterized by similar folds and a slaty cleavage developed under P/T conditions of 0.4GPa/210°-270 °C. The D1c sub-phase, characterized by west-verging thrusts, is particularly signficative in understanding the dynamics of the Ligure-Piemontese accretionary wedge because it testifies active shortening of the Gottero unit also after its transfer to the prism. In addition, sub-phase D1c represents the transition from the sub-phases connected to accretion and the tectonics dominated by extension, characterized by parallel folds and low-to high-angle normal faults. The gravity driven extension is represented by the D2a and D2b sub-phases and can be interpreted as the result of the thicknening of the Ligure-Piemontese accretionary wedge, produced by continuous underplating at its base but also by shortening of the previously underplated units. These final tectonic events resulted in the exhumation of the Gottero unit to the surface during the Early Oligocene, when this Unit became one of the source areas of the conglomerates deposited in the Tertiary Piedmont basin.

This deformation history suggests the occurrence of a complex sequence of deformations during the transition from accretion to exhumation, even in the intermediate levels of the accretionary wedge.     

A resampling approach to test stress-field uniformity from fault data

Several methods have been proposed to constrain the stress field from fault plane orientations and slip directions within a crustal volume characterized by brittle deformation. All the methods are based on the assumption that the stress field is uniform in the volume considered. If this hypothesis is not checked in advance, however, the methodology may lead to misleading conclusions. In this work, a procedure is defined to check stress-field uniformity by a statistical analysis of the available fault data. Since, in most cases, the statistical features of the uncertainties that affect such data are not well known, a distribution-free approach is proposed. It is based on a simple search algorithm, devoted to selecting stress configurations compatible with available data, combined with a bootstrap resampling approach. The test results are more conservative than the ones so far proposed in the literature. When the test allows stress heterogeneities to be safely excluded, approximate confidence intervals for the principal stress directions can be obtained; otherwise, the level of stress heterogeneity present in the volume under study can be assessed. An application of the proposed procedure to a sample of fault data deduced from seismological data is presented.     

Estimates of site seismicity rates using ill-defined macroseismic data

A new approach to the problem of site seismic hazard analysis is proposed, based on intensity data affected by uncertainties. This approach takes into account the ordinal and discrete character of intensities, trying to avoid misleading results due to the assumption that intensity can be treated as a real number (continuous distribution estimators, attenuation relationships, etc.). The proposed formulation is based on the use of a distribution function describing, for each earthquake, the probability that site seismic effects can be described by each possible intensity value. In order to obtain site hazard estimates where local data are lacking, the dependence of this distribution function with the distance from the macroseismic epicenter and with epicentral intensity is examined. A methodology has been developed for the purpose of combining such probabilities and estimating site seismicity rates which takes into account the effect of uncertainties involved in this kind of analysis. An application of this approach is described and discussed.     

Extent and magnitude of copper contamination in marinas of the San Diego region, California, USA

Marinas are areas of special water quality concern because of the potential for pollutant accumulation within their protected waters. Perhaps the largest contaminant source to marinas is antifouling paints that leach copper to prevent the growth of encrusting organisms on vessel bottoms. Very little monitoring of marinas is typically conducted despite the potential environmental risk, particularly in the San Diego region of California, USA where as many as 17,000 recreational vessels are berthed. The objective of this study was twofold: (1) determine the extent and magnitude of dissolved copper concentrations in marinas throughout the San Diego region, and (2) determine if elevated copper concentrations in marinas of the San Diego region are resulting in adverse biological impacts. A probabilistic study design was used to sample water column copper concentrations and toxicity (using Mytilus galloprovincialis) at 30 stations. Results indicated that exceedence of state water quality objectives was widespread (86% of marina area), but that toxicity was much less prevalent (21% of marina area). Toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs) conducted at the most toxic sites indicated that toxicity was largely due to trace metals, most likely copper. Toxicity was reduced using TIE treatments that chelated trace metals such as cation exchange column, ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), and sodium thiosulfate (STS). Moreover, increasing dissolved copper concentrations correlated with increasing toxicity and these copper concentrations were high enough to account for virtually all of the observed toxicity.