Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods

We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M _W ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M _W ≥ 6.5.     

Explosive felsic volcanism on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

The Canary Islands consist of seven basaltic shield volcanoes whose submerged portion is much more voluminous than the subaerial part of each island. Like so many other volcanic oceanic islands, the indicative deposits of explosive felsic volcanism are not a common feature on the Canary archipelago. Hitherto, they have only been documented from the central islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife, which are the largest volcanic complexes of the islands. On the other Canary Islands, the presence of felsic rocks is mostly restricted to intrusions and a few lava flows, generally within the succession in the oldest parts of individual islands. In this paper, we present a detailed stratigraphic, lithological and sedimentological study of a significant felsic pumice deposit on the island of El Hierro, referred here as the Malpaso Member, which represents the only explosive episode of felsic volcanism found on the Canary Islands (outside of Gran Canaria and Tenerife). The products of the eruption indicate a single eruptive event and cover an area of about 15 km². This work provides a detailed stratigraphic and chronological framework for El Hierro, and four subunits are identified within the member on the basis of lithological and granulometric characteristics. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of an explosive eruption in a setting where the activity is typified by effusive basaltic events. Given the style and the spatial distribution of the Malpaso eruption and its products, a future event with similar characteristics could have a serious impact on the population, infrastructure and economy of the island of El Hierro.     

Copper emissions from antifouling paint on recreational vessels

Trace metals, especially copper, are commonly occurring contaminants in harbors and marinas. One source of copper to these environs is copper-based antifouling coatings used on vessel hulls. The objective of this study was to measure dissolved copper contributions from recreational vessel antifouling coatings for both passive leaching and hull cleaning activities. To accomplish this goal, three coating formulations, including hard vinyl, modified epoxy and a biocide free bottom paint were applied on fiberglass panels and placed in a harbor environment. In situ measurements of passive leaching were made using a recirculating dome system. Monthly average flux rates of dissolved copper for the hard vinyl and modified epoxy coatings were 3.7 and 4.3 microg/cm(2)/day, respectively, while flux rates for the biocide free coating was 0.2 microg/cm(2)/day. The highest passive flux rates were measured initially after cleaning activities, rapidly decreasing to a baseline rate within three days, regardless of copper-based coating formulation. Hull cleaning activities generated between 8.6 and 3.8 microg dissolved copper/cm(2)/event for the modified epoxy and hard vinyl coatings, respectively. Aggressive cleaning using an abrasive product doubled the copper emissions from the modified epoxy coating, but produced virtually no change in the much tougher hard vinyl coating. When compared on a mass basis, roughly 95% of copper is emitted during passive leaching compared to hull cleaning activities over a monthly time period for a typical 9.1 m power boat.     

A geometrical method for quantifying endmembers' fractions in three-component groundwater mixing

We present a new geometrical method capable of quantifying and illustrating the outcomes of a three-component mixing dynamics. In a three-component mixing scenario, classical algebraic equations and endmember mixing analysis (EMMA) can be used to quantify the contributions from each fraction. Three-component mixing of natural waters, either in an element–element plot or by using the EMMA mixing subspace is described by a triangular shaped distribution of sample points where each endmember is placed on an apex, while each side corresponds to the mixing function of the two endmembers placed at the apex, considering the third endmembers' contribution equal to zero. Along each side, the theoretical mixing fractions can be computed using mass balance equations. Samples with contributions from three endmembers will plot inside the triangle, while the homogeneous barycentric coordinate projections can be projected onto the three sides. The geochemistry observed in the mineralized Ferrarelle aquifer system (southern Italy) results from three-component mixing of groundwater, each with diagnostic geochemical compositions. The defined boundary conditions allow us to parameterize and validate the procedures for modelling mixing, including selection of suitable geochemical tracers.     

Multi‐scale modelling approach for the pushover analysis of existing RC shear walls—Part I: Model formulation

This work focuses on the modelling issues related to the adoption of the pushover analysis for the seismic assessment of existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. To this purpose a prototype reference structure, one of the RC shear walls designed according to the multi‐fuse concept and tested on shaking table for the CAMUS project, is modelled at different levels of refinement. The meso‐scale of a stiffness‐based fibre element and the micro‐scale of the finite element (FE) method are herein adopted; in the latter separate elements are adopted for the concrete, the steel and the steel–concrete interface. This first of the two companion papers presents in detail the wall under study, illustrating the design philosophy, the geometry of the wall, the instrumentation set‐up and the test programme. The two modelling approaches are then described; the most important points in terms of element formulation and constitutive relations for materials are presented and discussed for each approach, in the light of the particular design of the wall and of its experimental behaviour. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian inversion of time‐lapse seismic data for the estimation of static reservoir properties and dynamic property changes

Seismic conditioning of static reservoir model properties such as porosity and lithology has traditionally been faced as a solution of an inverse problem. Dynamic reservoir model properties have been constrained by time‐lapse seismic data. Here, we propose a methodology to jointly estimate rock properties (such as porosity) and dynamic property changes (such as pressure and saturation changes) from time‐lapse seismic data. The methodology is based on a full Bayesian approach to seismic inversion and can be divided into two steps. First we estimate the conditional probability of elastic properties and their relative changes; then we estimate the posterior probability of rock properties and dynamic property changes. We apply the proposed methodology to a synthetic reservoir study where we have created a synthetic seismic survey for a real dynamic reservoir model including pre‐production and production scenarios. The final result is a set of point‐wise probability distributions that allow us to predict the most probable reservoir models at each time step and to evaluate the associated uncertainty. Finally we also show an application to real field data from the Norwegian Sea, where we estimate changes in gas saturation and pressure from time‐lapse seismic amplitude differences. The inverted results show the hydrocarbon displacement at the times of two repeated seismic surveys.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.     

Acervulinid macroid and rhodolith facies in the Eocene Nummulitic Limestone of the Dauphinois Domain (Maritime Alps,Liguria, Italy)

The Eocene Nummulitic Limestone of the Dauphinois domain in the Argentina Valley (Maritime Alps, Liguria, Italy) is characterized by the local presence of carbonate ramp facies rich in acervulinid macroids, rhodoliths and larger foraminifera. The development of these particular facies is mainly controlled by palaeomorphology of the substratum, tectonics, type and amount of terrigenous supply and global sea level changes.

The Upper Cretaceous to Eocene succession outcropping in the Argentina Valley shows differences in facies and age if compared to the typical succession of the Maritime Alps:

• the Cretaceous substratum is younger (early Maastrichtian) and is followed by an unconformity that is interpreted as a submarine discontinuity surface;
• the first Eocene carbonate deposits are older (late Lutetian);
• the Nummulitic Limestone is characterized by the development of carbonate facies deposited in a deep infralittoral-circalittoral setting of a carbonate ramp, sheltered from terrigenous input; in these facies encrusting foraminifera (Solenomeris) replace calcareous red algae in nodules similar to rhodoliths (acervulinid macroids);
• the Nummulitic Limestone is thicker than usual, reaching 110–160 m of thickness.

The Eocene tectonostratigraphic evolution can be summarized as follow: (1) synsedimentary tectonic activity that causes the development of a carbonate ramp with an adjacent structural trough where ramp-derived bioclastic material is deposited (late Lutetian); (2) interruption of the tectonic activity and uniform deposition of deep circalittoral sediments, characterized by deepening upward trend (late Lutetian?); (3) regression indicated by an abrupt shallowing of the depositional setting (Bartonian); and (4) deepening of the depositional setting, ending with the drowning of the carbonate ramp (late Bartonian).The evolution of the Eocene Argentina Valley succession is strongly influenced by tectonics related to the Alpine foreland basin development, but locally, and during definite time intervals, the global sea level changes could be recorded by the sediments during periods of stasis in tectonic activity. The regressive events recognized in the studied succession could be related to the sea level fall reported in the global sea level curve during the Bartonian.     

U-Pb SHRIMP zircon dating of andesite from the Dolomite area (NE Italy): geochronological evidence for the early onset of Permian Volcanism in the eastern part of the southern Alps

The Athesian Volcanic District (AVD), a thick sequence of andesitic to rhyolitic lava and ignimbrite, overlies both the Variscan basement of the Dolomites and, where present, the continental basal conglomerate of Upper Carboniferous(?) to Early Permian age. This volcanic activity is known to mark the margin of the intra-Pangea megashear system between Gondwana and Laurasia, the onset age of which is determined in this study.SHRIMP U-Pb dating on zircon from Ponte Gardena/Waidbruck (Isarco/Eisack valley) basaltic andesite yields an age of 290.7 ± 3 Ma, providing the oldest record of andesite volcanic activity yet documented in the AVD. Two younger dates (279.9 ± 3.3 and 278.6 ± 3.1 Ma) obtained for the andesitic necks of M. dei Ginepri (Eores/Aferer valley) and Col Quaternà (western Comelico), respectively, probably represent a second pulse of andesite magmatic activity.Near Chiusa/Klausen, the volcanoclastic deposits at the bottom of the Funes/Villnöss valley volcano-sedimentary complex only contain detrital zircons, dated at 469 ± 6 Ma; these probably derive from erosion of Paleozoic porphyroids. Other zircons from the same sediments and inherited cores of magmatic andesite crystals give Paleoproterozoic (1953.6 ± 22.1, 1834.6 ± 69.3, 1773.6 ± 25.1 Ma), Early Neoproterozoic (1015 ± 14 Ma) and Late Neoproterozoic (728.4 ± 9.6, 687.6 ± 7.6 Ma) ages. These ancient detrital and inherited zircon ages fit the model that envisages the Dolomite region as being tectonically coherent with Africa, at least until the Lower Permian.     

The Mid-Carboniferous to Lowermost Permian succession of Spiti (Po Group and Ganmachidam Formation; Tethys Himalaya,Northern India): Gondwana glaciation and rifting of Neo-Tethys.

Abstract

The upper Lower Carboniferous to lowermost Permian terrigenous succession of the Spiti Valley can be subdivided into five formations (Thabo Formation, Fenestella Shale, Kabjima Quartzarenite, Chichong Formation and Ganmachidam Diamictite), here described in detail and subdivided into members or lithozones.

The Po Group, overlying the platform carbonates and gypsum deposits of the Lipak Formation, records an increase of subarkosic to quartzarenitic terrigenous detritus derived from uplift and erosion of continental blocks in the south during the initial stage of Neo-Tethyan rifting. Increasing mineralogic stability through the Thabo Formation broadly coincides with a climate change from tropical arid to temperate humid conditions during the Visean-Serpukhovian. The Fenestella Shale, containing rich brachiopod associations of Bashkirian age, documents a stage of widespread subsidence and transgression, followed by the regressive Kabjima Quartzarenite, which records recycling of quartzose sedimentary sequences in the south.

The Chichong Formation marks another transgressive event, associated with a significant increase of granitoid detritus, partly from nearby Lesser to High Himalayan source areas. Chaetetid, cephalopod and brachiopod faunas hint at a Moscovian age for the “Chaetetid beds”, at the top of which varve-like lamination and scattered pebbles suggest glacially influenced deposition. The overlying glacio-fluvial (?) cobble conglomerates (“Pebbly beds”) reflect onset of rapid tectonic uplift.

Abundant detritus from sedimentary rocks characterizes the overlying Ganmachidam Diamictite, deposited in glacio-marine environments; cold-water marine faunas of Asselian age occur in its middle part. Erosion of progressively older pre-rift sedimentary successions is ascribed to basin inversion, associated with unroofing of anatectic granitoids of the Lesser and High Himalayas. Basaltic to rhyolitic volcanic detritus documents alkalic magmatism at the climax of continental rifting.