Geomorphic setting and geohazard-related features along the Ionian Calabrian margin between Capo Spartivento and Capo Rizzuto (Italy)

The aim of this work is to describe the morpho-dynamic processes of coastal and submarine areas based on morpho-bathymetric data and sub-bottom acoustic profiles from the Calabrian Ionian margin (from Capo Spartivento to Capo Rizzuto). We describe some of the most significant geo-hazard features and show some examples of their complex interactions and related potential risk. The relationship between these geo-hazard features and the active tectonics and some severe historical earthquakes and tsunamis is also discussed. The studied area is characterized by several well developed canyon systems. The retrogressive erosion of the canyon heads affects the continental shelf and interacts with the coastal morpho-sedimentary processes, evidencing the intense geomorphic activity of this sector of Ionian margin. The widespread evidence of mass wasting processes and slope instability, together with the historical seismicity, makes this area also an ideal case study for investigating on the possible relationship between earthquakes and landslide-triggered tsunamis and assessing the potential risk.     

Assessing the influence of morpho-structural setting on landslide abundance

Knowing the factors that influence landslide abundance and distribution is important to evaluate landslide susceptibility and hazard. Visual interpretation of aerial photographs (API) can be used to collect spatially distributed information on bedding attitude (BA), in an area. Where a map of the location of bedding traces (BTs), i.e. lines showing the intersection of bedding planes with the local topography, is available, the map can be used to obtain BA point data and to prepare maps showing morpho-structural domains. The possibility of using BA maps to investigate the influence of morpho-structural settings on landslide abundance is hampered by the lack of understanding of the influence of the length of the BTs, and of the parameters used to interpolate the BA data on the structural zonation. To investigate the problem, we used information on 207 BTs obtained through API in the Collazzone area, Central Italy, and we prepared 150 maps showing BA information. This was accomplished using 15 different values for the segmentation length of the BTs (S), and 10 different values for the tension parameter (T) used for the interpolation. We compare the results against previous results obtained for the same area adopting a heuristic approach to the segmentation of the same set of BTs. Next, we compare the geographical distribution of old deep-seated, deep-seated and shallow landslides in five morpho-structural domains in the study area, and we analyse the influence of the structural settings on the abundance of the different types of landslides.     

Alert system to mitigate tephra fallout hazards at Mt. Etna Volcano,Italy

Volcanic eruptions may create a wide range of risks in inhabited areas and, as a consequence, major economic damage to the surrounding territory. An example of volcanic hazard was given between 1998 and 2001 by Mt. Etna volcano, in Italy, with its frequent paroxysmal explosive activity that caused more than a hundred fire-fountain episodes. In the period January–June 2000, in particular, 64 lava fountains took place at the Southeast Crater. During the most intense explosive phase of each episode, a sustained column often formed, reaching up to 6 km above the eruptive vent. Then, the column started to expand laterally causing more or less copious tephra fallout on the slopes of Etna; ash and lapilli, therefore, constituted a serious danger for vehicular and air traffic. A software and hardware warning system was developed to mitigate the volcanic hazard indicating the areas affected by potential ash and lapilli fallout. The alert system was mainly based on the good correspondence between the pattern of volcanic tremor amplitude and the evolution of explosive activity. When a fixed tremor threshold was exceeded, a semiautomatic process started to send faxes to Civil Defence and Municipalities directly affected by tephra fallout, together with information on wind directions from the Meteorological Office. The application of this methodology, during the last 14 eruptive episodes in 2000 and the 14 events occurred in 2001, demonstrated the good correspondence between the forecasts on the areas affected by tephra fallout and the effective tephra distribution on land. Despite the integrity of the performance provided by the alert system, small discrepancies occurred in the technical procedure of alerting, for which possible solutions have been discussed. The improvement of this type of system, could become basic for the Etnean region and be proposed for similar volcanic areas throughout the world.     

Thermal re-emission effects on GPS satellites

Highly precise satellite-derived coordinates depend on accurate orbit predictions, which cannot be achieved with purely empirical models. Global positioning system (GPS) satellites undergo several periodic perturbing forces that have to be modeled and understood. In this scenario, small non-gravitational forces can no longer be neglected when the purpose of the orbital analysis is to obtain accurate results (Vilhena de Moraes 1994). Together with solar radiation pressure, thermal re-emission effects due to solar heating and Earth albedo are the two most important non-gravitational effects. While solar radiation pressure is widely understood, our knowledge about thermal re-emission effects on GPS satellites is in its infancy. Few models have been proposed in recent years and despite the interest of the scientific community, there is a lack of detailed results concerning the magnitude and the behavior of such forces. The aim of this work is to provide a thermal re-emission force model for GPS satellites, simple enough to minimize the problem of modeling a satellite of complex shape with several components on its surface, but accurate enough to provide an estimate of the magnitude and the behavior of these forces, as well as to provide some input to the present knowledge about photon thrust on GPS satellites. Some results of this work point to the fact that thermal re-emission effects are good candidates to partially explain the Y-bias for GPS satellites.     

An assessment of oil supply and its implications for future prices

This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S. production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years (of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory.     

Monitoring forest areas from continental to territorial levels using a sample of medium spatial resolution satellite imagery

A global systematic sampling scheme has been developed by the UN FAO and the EC TREES project to estimate rates of deforestation at global or continental levels at intervals of 5 to 10 years. This global scheme can be intensified to produce results at the national level. In this paper, using surrogate observations, we compare the deforestation estimates derived from these two levels of sampling intensities (one, the global, for the Brazilian Amazon the other, national, for French Guiana) to estimates derived from the official inventories. We also report the precisions that are achieved due to sampling errors and, in the case of French Guiana, compare such precision with the official inventory precision.We extract nine sample data sets from the official wall-to-wall deforestation map derived from satellite interpretations produced for the Brazilian Amazon for the year 2002 to 2003. This global sampling scheme estimate gives 2.81 million ha of deforestation (mean from nine simulated replicates) with a standard error of 0.10 million ha. This compares with the full population estimate from the wall-to-wall interpretations of 2.73 million ha deforested, which is within one standard error of our sampling test estimate. The relative difference between the mean estimate from sampling approach and the full population estimate is 3.1%, and the standard error represents 4.0% of the full population estimate.This global sampling is then intensified to a territorial level with a case study over French Guiana to estimate deforestation between the years 1990 and 2006. For the historical reference period, 1990, Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data were used. A coverage of SPOT-HRV imagery at 20 m × 20 m resolution acquired at the Cayenne receiving station in French Guiana was used for year 2006.Our estimates from the intensified global sampling scheme over French Guiana are compared with those produced by the national authority to report on deforestation rates under the Kyoto protocol rules for its overseas department. The latter estimates come from a sample of nearly 17,000 plots analyzed from same spatial imagery acquired between year 1990 and year 2006. This sampling scheme is derived from the traditional forest inventory methods carried out by IFN (Inventaire Forestier National). Our intensified global sampling scheme leads to an estimate of 96,650 ha deforested between 1990 and 2006, which is within the 95% confidence interval of the IFN sampling scheme, which gives an estimate of 91,722 ha, representing a relative difference from the IFN of 5.4%.These results demonstrate that the intensification of the global sampling scheme can provide forest area change estimates close to those achieved by official forest inventories (<6%), with precisions of between 4% and 7%, although we only estimate errors from sampling, not from the use of surrogate data.Such methods could be used by developing countries to demonstrate that they are fulfilling requirements for reducing emissions from deforestation in the framework of an REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries) mechanism under discussion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Monitoring systems at national levels in tropical countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems.     

Axially equilibrated displacement‐based beam element for simulating the cyclic inelastic behaviour of RC members

Distributed plasticity beam elements are commonly used to evaluate limit state demands for performance‐based analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Strain limits are often preferred to drift limits because they directly relate to damage and are therefore less dependent on member geometry and boundary conditions. However, predicting accurately strain demands still represents a major simulation challenge. Tension shift effects, which induce a linear curvature profile in the plastic hinge region of RC columns and walls, are one of the main causes for the mismatch between experimental and numerical estimates of local level quantities obtained through force‐based formulations. Classical displacement‐based approaches are instead suitable to simulate such linear curvature profile. Unfortunately, they verify equilibrium only on an average sense due to the wrong assumption on the axial displacement field, leading to poor deformation and force predictions. This paper presents a displacement‐based element in which axial equilibrium is strictly verified along the element length. The assumed transversal displacement field ensures a linear curvature profile, connecting accurately global displacement and local strain demands. The proposed finite element is validated against two sets of quasi‐static cyclic tests on RC bridge piers and walls. The results show that curvature and strain profiles for increasing ductility demands are significantly improved when axially equilibrated rather than classical displacement‐based or force‐based elements are used to model the structural members. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring of structural systems by using frequency data

The present work evaluates the possibility of using dynamic data to assess structural integrity. It addresses the problem of understanding when it is sufficient to measure and use only natural frequencies, thus avoiding the need to measure modal shapes. The classic problem of detecting damage in beams, or beam assemblies, due to concentrated cracks, or damage spread over a structural member is dealt with. Damage is represented as a decrease in stiffness and linear behaviour before and after the event assumed to have caused damage is considered. Damage is restricted to a few unknown sections or elements, so that only the modification of few parameters of the system need to be determined. This study thus rejects assumptions unrelated to the physical aspects of the problem, in contrast to many papers on the subject. The amount of data to locate and quantify damage correctly is discussed; general considerations lead to the conclusion that a unique and reliable estimate of the damage can be obtained using only few additional frequency data with respect to the number of damaged zones. Continuous and discrete (finite element) models are examined. Finally the paper considers the applications to both analytical and experimental data of the procedure developed, which takes account of the peculiar characteristics of damage detection problem. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earth's spin and volcanic eruptions: evidence for mutual cause‐and‐effect interactions?

The angular velocity of Earth's rotation shows decadal oscillations due to the lunisolar gravitational torque, as well as inter‐ or intra‐annual changes arising from the angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The energies involved in the Length of Day (LOD) variations may affect the crustal deformation rate and seismic energy release on a global scale. We found significant correlation between the occurrences of major volcanic eruptions and the LOD pattern since AD 1750. On a multiyear scale, eruption frequency worldwide increases with LOD changes. Moreover, the injection of sulphur gases into the atmosphere during major eruptions is accompanied by significant inter‐annual LOD variations. This provides evidence of complex mutual cause‐and‐effect interactions: stress changes induced by multiyear variations in Earth's spin may affect climactic volcanic activity; also, the atmosphere's dynamic response to volcanic plumes may result in global changes of wind circulation and climate, with consequent LOD variations.